About This Episode
Shay Foulk checks in with Marc Cartwright, who services Pioneer accounts around Grand Forks in northeastern North Dakota, on May 12, 2020. The first half of May ran cold, with frost two nights running, so small grains and sugar beets took what planting windows there were. Spring wheat is 25 to 30 percent in, corn under 5 percent, soybeans about the same. Soil sits in the upper 30s to low 40s at two inches; he doubts you could find 45 degrees in the state.
The corn crop insurance planting date is May 25, two weeks out. March intentions pegged North Dakota at 3.2 million corn acres against 3.7 million planted the year before, and Cartwright thinks growers will be lucky to get 1.5 to 2 million in, which could leave roughly 1.5 million acres in prevent plant. Growers are running prevent plant economics against a soybean crop headed into a glut, but he expects most to seed something, even a cover crop, rather than leave ground idle.
Southern North Dakota plants 95 to 103 day corn; the north runs 70 to 85 day, with on-farm drying pushing some to 90. After last year growers pulled back five to eight CRM to protect harvest timing and drying cost. Cash corn is around $2.50 with a wide basis, since few ethanol plants operate up there and those that do are not bidding aggressively. Canadian feedlots are an outlet. His advice for the season is a steady pace, not an exhausted one.
“The prevent plant I'd say is very, very real and very possible.”
— Marc Cartwright
Key Takeaways
As of May 12, spring wheat was 25 to 30 percent planted, corn under 5 percent, and soybeans about the same across the northeastern corner of the state.
Soil temperatures at two inches sat in the upper 30s to low 40s, with 45 degrees hard to find anywhere in North Dakota.
March intentions put North Dakota at 3.2 million corn acres versus 3.7 million planted the prior year; Cartwright expects 1.5 to 2 million to actually go in.
That leaves potentially 1.5 million acres of corn prevent plant in the state, with May 25 as the crop insurance planting date.
Growers pulled maturities back five to eight CRM after last year, running 70 to 85 day corn in the north and 95 to 103 day in the south.
Cash corn near $2.50 with historically wide basis, driven by few and unaggressive ethanol plants; Canadian feedlots and USMCA are the outlet growers are watching.
Full Transcript
Narrator: Hey, podcast. In today's episode with Mark, I mentioned a prevent plant tool, something that really got refined last year with all the decision-making that was going on there. And Chris and I were talking about this a little bit earlier this morning. You know, with that tool, it pretty much hit the nail on the head with if there was an operation that was showing that they should go prevent plant on the tool, it was 100% right., every time. So it's something that when you're making these decisions here, whether you're up north in the Dakotas and are looking at that May 25th date, keep this in mind. It can take some of the emotion out of that and, uh, help with some better decision-making there. So again, reach out to us, cbarron@agviewsolutions.com, if you have an interest in the PREVENT Plant tool.
Even if you're not looking at it this year, you just want to have that tool in your toolbox. Feel free to reach out to us.
Marc
Cartwright: Enjoy today's episode.
Shay
Foulk: Welcome back, everyone, to another episode of the Ag View Pitch. Today you have Shea and special guest Mark Cartwright. How's it going today, Mark?
Marc
Cartwright: Going very well up in North Dakota. Thanks, Shea.
Shay
Foulk: Good deal. And sounds like temperatures up your way are maybe not too shabby, but rain in the forecast, right?
Marc
Cartwright: Yeah, we had a cold start to the week, some frost on Sunday night, Monday night. Today is Tuesday, supposed to get into the 50s, but a chance of rain, probably 80% chance of a third of an inch or so tomorrow. And then a nice warm-up should be 60s and 70s from there on out with no risk of frost. So we're looking forward to that.
Shay
Foulk: Now, what part of the state are you in there, Mark?
Marc
Cartwright: I'm in the northeastern corner, up in the Grand Forks area, right on the Minnesota-North Dakota border. I help Pioneer service a lot of farms on both the North Dakota and Minnesota side in the far northern plains of the US geography here.
Shay
Foulk: Real good, I appreciate the background on that. So, you know, with conditions, obviously last year was very challenging and a lot of people are still seeing the impacts of that, but have hope on the horizon. A lot of stuff may be going in the ground in that area. What does planting look like up there right now and And how do you see that kind of progressing here in the next week or so?
Marc
Cartwright: Yeah, it's been a very cold spring up to this point. First half of May has been extremely on the cool side. So the small grains and sugar beets, I'd say, would be getting all the attention when there's opportunity to plant. As you know, very wet throughout this geography last fall and a fair amount of snow this winter. We've had a little bit of precip this spring. This spring as well. So we've been wet on the wet side also, delaying that planting. I'd say spring wheat, we're probably 25-30% planted here in North Dakota, probably less than 5% for corn and probably about that same number for soybeans as well. So we're just getting started if we can avoid this rain on Wednesday. I think a lot of guys start up on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. This week, and we have a big, big push going into next week. See if we can get some corn and beans planted.
Corn planting date deadline for crop insurance purposes is May 25th, so we got a couple weeks here to push for corn.
Shay
Foulk: So Mark, one question that I have for you, I guess, when it comes to this planting progress that we're talking on here is prevent plant, and I know there's been some discussion on that. Of course, Twitter is the all true news feed when it comes to reliability and sources there, but we're hearing that there could be a possibility of a lot of prevent plant. What are you seeing in your area and how does that look?
Marc
Cartwright: Yeah, the prevent plant I'd say is very, very real and very possible. We've got May 25th as our planting date for crop insurance purposes on the corn. So it's only 2 weeks away, we get some rain, this week and maybe there's some rain in the forecast for next week, you know, we could very well be looking at a pretty big prevent plant here in North Dakota. March planting intentions report had North Dakota pegged at 3.2 million acres. Last year we were 3.7 million acres planted. And, you know, right now I would say with all of the, you know, talk of less corn acres and talking with growers about backing off on corn acres already this year, I would say we'd be lucky to get 1.5 to 2 million corn acres in. So we could easily be seeing 1.5 million or so acres of prevent plant of corn right here in North Dakota. So it could be pretty significant this year. We'll see how it goes.
Shay
Foulk: Well, and that's a huge swing. So the other question that I have then, too, is instead of prevent plant, our conditions so bad, as far as soil moisture and things like that, that they won't even consider switching over to soybeans or other crop, that it is just going to go straight into prevent plant. Is that the plan?
Marc
Cartwright: Well, you know, everybody's looking at economics of it and, and what pays the most. So, you know, obviously a glut of supply of soybeans as well as corn on the market right now, uh, and in on-farm storage and other places. So If guys can see more profit potential in prevent planting that acre to corn versus planting a crop of soybeans on there, I can see that decision being made. So guys are working pretty hard trying to analyze those equations right now and those calculations. At the same time though, growers don't like land to sit idle. It takes a little while for that land to get back in shape and productive again. So, you know, I would think they would work hard to try to get something out there, even if it's a cover crop, to take up some moisture and keep that plant cycle going for maximum productivity in the near future.
Shay
Foulk: Absolutely. And, you know, the other thing too, I can't remember if we had mentioned this last year about this time, Mark, but with all the decisions being made last year, Ag View Solutions does have a tool that looks at evaluating, you know, What is the opportunity cost of putting this crop in, especially after the insurance date, as mentioned there, May 25th for your area? But also, what do those numbers look like with prevent plant? So we do have a really simple tool on that. If anybody is interested in that, feel free to email us, cbarron@agviewsolutions.com, and we'll get that sent over to you just to hopefully help with some of that decision-making. Real good. Now, with the ice states, a lot of people there don't have as many concerns when it comes to soil temperatures, in corn in particular, as long as ground conditions are good.
Now, you mentioned that you're wet up there, and people listening to this here in those cooler temperatures might be a little bit concerned on the combination of soil conditions and ground temperatures. So one, what are ground temperatures like, and are the conditions fit to be throwing corn in the ground this early, in your opinion?
Marc
Cartwright: Well, there's some areas with less rainfall this spring, but I'd say most of the geography, enough rain where that's kept them out of the field as well. And so I'd say that our soil temperatures are still in many locations upper 30s, lower 40s at 2 inches deep. We'd be lucky to find a spot in the state of North Dakota that's even got 45-degree soil temperatures. So we're just trying to look at a forecast and see when temperatures are going to warm up. And if we get a nice window there, we're going to go in and feed some corn and beans. That's kind of what we're waiting for up here. We've got to have just a little bit drier conditions and just a little bit more soil temperatures so we get some good stands up and good production potential. Right.
Shay
Foulk: So last week, I spoke with Peter Hill down in Texas, looking at an update there. Of course, they have corn all over the board, you know, a little over ankle high up to, you know, almost tasseling or reproductive stages. They're a whole different world up in your region. Of course, they're growing 115 to 120+ day corn down there. What do the maturities look like in your area? Because I know in recent years a lot of farmers in that region have looked at planting fuller season hybrids, maybe taking a little bit of a gamble on that. What does that look like on corn and soybeans as far as maturities there?
Marc
Cartwright: Yeah, you know, the state of North Dakota kind of varies a little bit. In the southern end of the geography, we'd be planting, you know, 95 to 100, even some 103-day corn for grain down there. You get into the northern parts of the region, we're all the way down into the 70, 75, and 80-day maturities. You know, a lot of these bigger operations with grain drying facilities on the farm and stuff are pushing into that 80, 85, some 90-day maturities. You know, this year, after a little bit of a setback last year, obviously guys have been a little bit more conservative, you know, probably backing off at least 5, maybe 7, 8 CRM in their maturities just to make sure they got a little bit more opportunity for that harvest in the fall and not get dinged so hard with drying costs and things like of that nature.
So You know, once you get into the 75, 80-day range, you can't go a whole lot earlier. So we're just not going to be pushing maturities. We're not going to be pushing planting date deadlines and things like that we've done in the past. So, and especially with, you know, $2.50, $3 cash corn in the region, they're just, the profit opportunities aren't quite there as much, so there's not going to be as much risk-taking. I would say this particular year on the corn acres versus years past.
Shay
Foulk: So let's talk about that a little bit. I'm glad you brought that up. One, do you have a good pulse on kind of what basis is doing in that area? And two, what are those cash prices looking like?
Marc
Cartwright: Yeah, right now if you wanted to sell corn cash, local elevator, you're probably looking right at around $2.50 for corn. And, you know, so the basis is still pretty high up here. As everybody knows, the ethanol facilities, number one, there's not too many up here, and the ones that are up here aren't being as aggressive. And so that's kind of kept our basis quite high traditionally as well. So, you know, we're at a disadvantage up here due to basis. It's just, you know, it's nothing new. We've had to deal with it for several years, and We'll continue to try to find opportunities to market our grain.
We do have some outlets up in Canada, and, you know, looking forward to the new USMCA, we should be able to expand those opportunities as we see fit moving forward with some feedlots up there and other end users that are interested in our grain up on the north side of the border too.
Shay
Foulk: That's a good point. Are there any restrictions on that right now with the coronavirus as far as the border and transportation? And, you know, could you maybe give us a overview of what that looks like in your region right now?
Marc
Cartwright: Oh yeah, that's a good question. I'm not 100% versed on it. I know like just civilian traffic, if you wanted to go up to Winnipeg and spend the weekend with the family and stuff, you'd kind of be shut down. As far as I know, the farmers are still, you know, considered essential businesses. So I would, I, you know, I'm getting reports that guys are able to travel with their commodity in semi trucks across and back from the border very easily. So we don't see too many restrictions on the agricultural side with that right now.
Shay
Foulk: Right. I appreciate the update on that. Anything else that, you know, you think is crucial not only to share with kind of everybody that's listening across the country, but, you know, even particular into your growers in the area, any message that you want to share with them?
Marc
Cartwright: Oh, well, that's a wide open question. You know, I just think obviously a really busy time of the year. We've even got some harvesting of 2019 crops that are going on now. Obviously planting is getting a big kick underway here. Just tell guys to, you know, go at a steady pace. Don't get too tired and wore down. When you get tired and wore down, there's opportunities for illness and sickness to set in. So Obviously don't want any farms and crews to be saddled with that at this stage of the spring and early summer. So let's go at a good pace and get the work done, do a quality job, and we'll just have to take what Mother Nature gives us this year.
Shay
Foulk: Absolutely. Mark, I appreciate the insight there. If any listeners have questions for you, is there a good way for them to get in contact with you or maybe follow along with what you have going on?
Marc
Cartwright: Oh yeah, I do a little bit on Twitter @mcartwright89, and you can catch me at Pioneer email address mark.cartwright@pioneer.com. And if you want a phone number, I could easily give that out as well: 701-317-2881.
Shay
Foulk: Awesome, Mark, thank you so much for the time today. Appreciate not only the perspective that you're providing there, but you know, we just like hearing what's going on and you looking after the farmers and the operations up in that area. Thanks a lot, Mark.
Marc
Cartwright: Appreciate it, Jay. Thanks for the opportunity.
Shay
Foulk: And thank you everyone for listening to another episode of the Ag View Pitch. We will catch you next time.
Narrator: Thanks for joining us on today's episode of the Ag View Pitch. As always, you can reach out to us at cbarron@agviewsolutions.com or duanel@netins.net. We'll catch you next time on the EggView Pitch.