About This Episode
Chris Barron calls Mark Schaffer in north central Ohio for a planting update on May 9, 2021. Schaffer has been weathered out of the field for about two weeks and has every field but one of his first crop soybeans planted, putting him at 98 percent complete on beans. His own rotation includes no corn. Across northwest and central Ohio he estimates corn at 35 to 40 percent planted and soybeans around 40 percent, with an unusually wide spread between neighboring operations.
The area caught about two and a half inches a couple weeks earlier and has been picking up a quarter inch every other day since, keeping soils saturated. With highs only in the upper 50s and more rain forecast for Sunday, Schaffer figures they are four or five days from fieldwork at best and realistically will not roll again until the end of the following week. Just south of him conditions are better, and a strip north of I-70 is closer to 50 percent planted.
On acres, Schaffer does not expect the corn to soybean price spread to shift much this late. Anyone who wanted more corn already has it planted, and past the middle of May the bushels start falling off, so continued wet weather leans toward more soybeans instead. Beans planted around April 8 to 12 are up and rollable while those seeded ten days later are just breaking through. Wheat looks good with no disease pressure, and almost nobody locally has old crop grain left.
“Every day that we don't get planted, you know, the bushels are going to fall off.”
— Mark Schaffer
Key Takeaways
Schaffer had soybeans 98 percent planted before two weeks of rain shut the area down; his rotation includes no corn at all.
Northwest and central Ohio ran roughly 35 to 40 percent planted on corn and about 40 percent on soybeans as of May 9.
The spread between operations was wide: progressive farms were 80 to 90 percent done while the next neighbor had not started.
Two and a half inches of rain, a quarter inch every other day since, and highs in the upper 50s put fieldwork four or five days out at best.
Schaffer doubts a late shift toward corn acres, because past mid May the yield loss argues for planting soybeans instead.
Wheat looked clean with no disease pressure, and very little old crop grain was left in the area.
Full Transcript
Chris: Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch and the crop tour, crop update, whatever you want to call it, planning update, or maybe not planning update. We're talking to Ohio right now. We are talking to Mark Schaefer. How's it going, Mark?
Mark
Schaffer: Good, Chris, how you doing?
Chris: I'm hanging in there. We're pretty dry and you guys are in north central Ohio. Talk to us a little bit about what you're seeing in your specific area. How are things going or not going there?
Mark
Schaffer: Well, we've been, we've been weathered out of the field for about 2 weeks now. We, we got all our first crop beans planted and, uh, except for one field, so we were 98% complete with our beans. And we don't plant any corn, but generally right in my area, um,— were pretty much like 35, 35 to 40% planted with corn. And I would say somewhere around 40%, uh, with beans. And that would be northwest Ohio, the northern, you know, just south of the Great Lakes, uh, in central Ohio also.
Chris: Mm-hmm. Interesting. So, you know, we've been hearing about the wetness you know, out your direction to the east. Tell us a little bit more about what you're seeing in, you know, the rest of the state there. What's it looking like?
Mark
Schaffer: Well, we are wet here, and you just go south of here and it is, it's a lot better. They didn't get the rain that we got. We got about 2.5 inches here a couple weeks ago, and then we've been getting a quarter here and there about every other day. So it's keeping us pretty moist. We're probably at least 4 or 5 days out of getting in the field and they're talking rain again on Sunday. So I would say minimal, we wouldn't get out in the field again till the end of next week, especially with the cool weather. I mean, we're only— they're only talking highs in the upper 50s. So it's still cool.
Chris: See, You said, you know, a lot of the area, you know, 35% done with corn and, and 40% maybe on the beans. What, what do you see as far as acre shift, or did you see much acre shift in your area or across the state of Ohio for, you know, more corn, less corn, more bean acres? I know you don't plant any corn because of your crop rotation, but What are you seeing across the state?
Mark
Schaffer: I think everyone was still on their normal rotation. I don't think there was any progression either way. I will tell you to add on to that, some of the guys, you know, some of the progressive farmers, they're done. I mean, we had a couple weeks there where it was very early for us. In fact, we, you know, we wouldn't be done as far as are if we wouldn't have stayed with it early. But, uh, you'll have guys that are progressive and they're 80 to 90% done, and you'll have the next guy that hasn't started anything yet. So that's, that's where you get into that 35 to 40%.
Chris: It's interesting. Do you think with the, the corn-bean price spread right now, in some instances it For some operations, every operation is different, but for some operations it looks like there's more profitability in corn. Do you think this market will sway some? It's interesting, you listen to a lot of market analysts and they're, they're like, oh, we're going to plant a ton of corn acres and all this. And I question that people are going to change that much. You know, sometimes people say, well, they're planting that crop, they're going to stay on it. And I guess I've always argued that farmers make economic decisions. Do you, do you see that happening? Do you see guys maybe bumping a little more corn, or do you think everybody still stays with what they're doing?
Mark
Schaffer: I think any of the guys that would have thought about bumping their corn are already planted or, or close enough to plant it that, um, they may go plant one more corn, but I, I would think I would doubt it just because Now we're close to middle of May now, and every day that we don't get planted, you know, the bushels are going to fall off.
Chris: And it could lean more toward— if you guys stay wet for another couple of weeks, it could lean to more soybeans.
Mark
Schaffer: That's absolutely correct. So, you know, the weather is going to determine a lot. But like I say, south of us, if you go down just north of I-70, up to, say, Route 30, there's a, there's a sliver in there where there's a little bit more planted. I would say that area is probably close to 50% planted, you know, corn and beans.
Chris: What, what, what are you seeing for— so you said you were planted early, obviously it was kind of cooler then too. Do you have anything emerged, or what's the the seedling health look like for you right now at this point?
Mark
Schaffer: Yeah, we planted some beans on around the 10th or 12th of May, and those are out of the ground. You can roll them.
Chris: Of April?
Mark
Schaffer: Yeah, that's correct. Yeah, 8th or right around the 8th or 12th of May— or I mean, excuse me, April. Yep. And, um, they're up and you can roll them. Uh, now we planted some a week or so, a week, 10 days later and they're just starting to come through the ground now.
Chris: What, uh, what are you seeing on the marketing side of things in your area? You know, are the processors scrambling to try to get bushels? I mean, you guys, um, had an okay crop last year. Is there, is there enough grain inventory around to get people, you know, get the processors till to harvest, or is you know, is basis really strong there? What's basis doing? What's things look like in that area?
Mark
Schaffer: Actually, you know, we don't have any grain here, so I can't honestly ask you what's going on in that because I haven't been playing— paying that much attention to it. So, uh, probably if I had some grain in the bins, I wish I did, but I, uh, I don't. So, uh, why do you want to depress yourself by listening to it? So, right, uh, We're, uh, we're more concerned, you know, what do we do for the next year's crop, you know?
Chris: So, uh, what— yeah, and that, and that's just it. That, that's the, the whole one of, one of several factors. But, you know, there's, there's not very many people I talk to that say, well, yeah, I got, I got a bunch of grain left over. No, everybody's pretty well either completely gone or they're scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point.
Mark
Schaffer: Um, okay. That's exactly right. And usually I talked to a fellow this morning and said he had most of his corn. I said, you still have any? He said, yeah, but I haven't sold it either. I said, you know, I had talked to him for keeping them, but I hope that he would decide that, you know, he said, well, I think maybe corn will go to $10. And I said, well, you know, I don't know about that. So it's the same scenario. It's the same scenario.
Chris: Right. Other than the wet conditions, are there any other agronomic issues or anything that you guys are concerned about crop-wise going into, into the getting into the growing season other than saturated soils?
Mark
Schaffer: No, we, we actually got out and we were out with our agronomist yesterday looking at a bunch of wheat. The wheat looks pretty good in our area. So far, the disease has not been an issue. Other than some of the later planted wheat, the earlier planted wheat looks, looks pretty good. So, and it's just too early to tell on the stuff that's just emerging with the soybeans. I think it's fine as long as we don't get real cold. I think if we stay in the 50s, 60s, and slowly climb up to 70 and 80, they'll be fine.
Chris: Yeah, that's good. Well, hey, I think this is a good place to wrap it up. Really appreciate your contribution to the crop updates here from Ohio, Mark. Thanks a lot.
Mark
Schaffer: Anytime, Chris. Have a great weekend.
Chris: Yeah, you too. And thanks everybody for listening, coming from north central Ohio. And we'll be back again another time with another crop update and the Ag View Pitch. Thanks for listening.