About This Episode
Shay Foulk checks in with Neil, who farms along Interstate 90 in south central Minnesota, roughly halfway across the state. Planting went about as well as it ever has. Warm weather at the beginning of April let everyone start early, and Neil says they never had to stop. The problem is what came after: air temperatures running about 15 degrees below average through much of April and the first part of May, and almost no moisture beyond one small snow with light rain.
Neil says there is probably enough moisture to get the crop started, and he is glad the ground was dry given how cold it stayed. The visible problem is uneven emergence, driven by dry topsoil that made good seed-to-soil contact hard to get. Rain chances keep showing up in the ten-day forecast and then shrinking as they get closer, which he describes as a mirage. The soil profile, he says, has been exhausted for 18 months, including a low-snow winter.
On acreage, Neil has not seen planting-season switches; decisions made in March held. He has noticed more soybean acres over the last year or two, partly because corn on corn underperformed on the dry south end of the region and partly because bean prices and lower per-acre costs pencil well. Asked what he would plant with 500 more acres tomorrow, he leans corn but calls it a game-time decision. He contrasts 2019 optimism about June planting with this year's worry despite timely planting.
“The 10-day forecast shows rain opportunities and then they just continue to dwindle down to very little or nothing as we get closer to them. It's kind of like a mirage out in the future, and it just— we just can't quite catch it.”
— Neil
Key Takeaways
Neil finished planting earlier than 2020 with no weather break after an early April start, some of the most timely planting his farm has had.
Air temperatures ran roughly 15 degrees below average through much of April and the first part of May.
Uneven emergence is the visible damage, caused by topsoil too dry for good seed-to-soil contact.
The soil profile has been drawing down for 18 months, including a winter with very little snow.
Soybean acres have crept up locally after corn on corn underperformed on the drier south end of the region.
Neil's contrast: in 2019 planting corn in late May and early June was shrugged off, while this timely 2021 crop already has people worried.
Full Transcript
Shay: And welcome back everyone to another episode of the Ag View Pitch. Today you have Shay Foulk joined with Neil in Minnesota. How are things up your direction, Neil?
Neil: Cold and dry.
Shay: Seems like the story in a lot of area up there. And if you could tell the listeners just exactly where you're located.
Neil: Yeah, we're, we're right along Interstate 90, south central Minnesota, um, kind of right, right halfway between the states there.
Shay: Now my wife and her family were up visiting that region here a couple days ago and just had some pretty beautiful weather here recently, but it seems like things are pretty dry. So, you know, what's some perspective on kind of how things have been going weather-wise over the last month or so, and how you guys coming along with planting progress there, Neil?
Neil: Uh, well, planting progress is going excellent. We've been, we've been done planting probably some of the most timeliness we've ever been. Um, beginning of April started off really warm and everybody got a good jump on it. And then we really never had a break. We were able to just keep planting right through. However, the soil or the air temps, and they kept cooling off. And we've been, we've been probably running 15 degrees below average for a lot of, a lot of April and the first part of May. And where we're at, we haven't seen hardly any moisture. I think it was a couple of weeks ago, we actually had a small snow. Came with some light rain and really the most amount of moisture we've gotten here. I know coming across the state from the west to the east, there's been some moisture, but it just seems to keep continue to fizzle out as it comes across the state.
Shay: With a significant amount of crop on the ground, are you seeing any crop damage as a result of the lack of moisture, or are things still looking okay at this point?
Neil: Um, okay, maybe is a good word. I think there's enough moisture maybe to get things started. I'm glad that we were dry with it being as cold as it was. One of the issues we're seeing right now is the uneven emergence because some areas had a little bit more moisture than others, or, you know, or just, you know, there just wasn't a lot of, a lot of moisture in the profile. We had a hard time getting good seed contact because the topsoil was so dry. And I think there'll be some issues out of that.
Shay: So every year has a few different challenges to it. Now, if you could remind the listeners, you know, kind of what did 2020 look like for you? Because you mentioned you didn't really have a break here planting this season. I know a lot of areas throughout Iowa and Minnesota last year had pretty good planting conditions. How does that compare to what you saw last year?
Neil: Uh, I We were earlier than last year, I suppose. But last year we had a really nice spring. Everything worked out really as you want it to. We got started, I think, at the end of April and just hammered right through the first part of May, got some timely rains. We had an excellent year last year. The prior couple of years before that were really difficult wet years, really late. We were trying to get things done. I don't even know if we were hardly getting started at this point last year or in 2019. Dealt with a lot of wetness, had quite a bit of prevent plant, so we'll gladly take this over that right now.
Shay: From one extreme to the next, you know, things look different year to year. With the 10-day outlook, 2-week outlook, is there any relief in sight as far as moisture goes?
Neil: Uh, there is. We're supposed to, you know, we're supposed to have some pretty good chances the end of the week. It's kind of been the same story though. The 10-day forecast shows rain opportunities and then they just continue to dwindle down to very little or nothing as we get closer to them. It's kind of like a mirage out in the future, and it just— we just can't quite catch it. So, you know, we're obviously early. I think we have enough moisture to get things out of the ground. I wish we would have had a little bit more, but, uh, um, we're really gonna need some rain here to keep this— these plants going.
Shay: Yeah, hope you guys kind of can catch some of that there. As far as planting decisions went here early on this spring, Obviously crop prices have been extremely volatile. Did you see a lot of acreage shift or hear of a lot of acreage shift in your area on maybe farmers making different decisions on what crop they were putting in?
Neil: I don't think that decisions changed, you know, like during planting season. I think a lot of the decisions made in, in March were, were kind of followed through. We've definitely seen a few more soybean acres going back in here the last year or two. Last year was a little bit more difficult year for corn on corn. We did start to see the south end of the region get a little dry and those corn on corn acres didn't perform like the rest of it. So that might have shied some away. I mean, heck, what, bean prices have been great too, and the cost of getting those through is better. So I don't know if that's— I don't think any of those are really have had an effect on the planting decision right now.
Shay: If you had another 500 acres to plant tomorrow, what crop would you be putting in?
Neil: Well, that's a great question. Did I have fertilizer bought yet? Yes. I would like to plant corn. We raise corn well up here. Our soils tend to hold moisture well, but we are really dry. I don't know. I, I'd like to say corn, but I— it'd probably be a game time decision for us. Kind of depends on the type of ground you're putting it on and rolling the dice on what our summer weather is going to look like.
Shay: Yeah, we're still real early in the growing season here, but it's interesting to have these conversations, see how things are coming along in different parts of the country.
Neil: I find, I find that it's really interesting that in 2019, the rhetoric, you know, everybody's gonna be planting their corn at the end of May and early June, and they— no big deal, we got all the potential yet. And, uh, we plant our crop this year as timely as we've ever been, and everybody's worried if we're going to have a good crop or not. So obviously, I think the real story will be the end of the year. We're going to need some good rain. We're going to use a little bit of rain now, but we're going to need a lot of rain. The profile has been exhausted the last 18 months. We had very little snow end of last year, really dry. We just, we just had not, not had the moisture. So we're going to need a lot of maintenance rain to keep things going for sure.
Shay: Absolutely. A lot of growing season ahead of us. Neil, thank you for taking the time to update the listeners on how things are there in southwest Minnesota. We'll be wishing for rain over your direction, and, uh, stay safe here.
Neil: Thanks, Shay.
Shay: And thank you everyone for listening to another episode of the Ag View Pitch. We will catch you next time.