Lessons from the ethanol boom: weekly market outlook, Nov 18-22

Joe

Paulson: Hi, this is Joe Paulsen with the Ag View Pitch and the weekly market outlook for the week November 18th through November 22nd. Today we have Jeff Fickelman, a market analyst with Interactive Ag. How's it going today, Jeff?

Jeff

Fichtelman: Yeah, it's going well. Thank you for having me. And, and we have a fair amount to talk about, so I'll let you get started.

Joe

Paulson: So, I mean, you know, I'm a farmer. I just came out of hibernation in a, in a, in a machine and just starting to kind of get back in the office and looking at unsold bushels and, you know, carries and that kind of thing. So I guess we'll start there. I mean, the corn chart to me, the Dec corn chart, the daily, you know, looks somewhat promising. So what are your kind of— what are your thoughts on corn, carry, exports, ethanol, you know, that kind of thing?

Jeff

Fichtelman: Yeah, it's been an interesting kind of shift in mindset on corn, especially from take it early August when it was pretty well known that there was a lot of old corn that had to come to the market. Also in early August, the crop looked amazing and we were expecting bin busters. So it's kind of a doomsday perception of both futures price and basis. And most of the guys I work with are eastern half, call it Illinois and all the way to Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky. And felt like both those stories were pretty darn true and hard to negate. So it's like, gosh, making sure we got forward sales on, getting concerned about how bad basis was going to be. And August kind of played out that way. Most of the grain companies saw a flood of old crop come in and kind of at the lows. Of course, in hindsight, basis was terrible, early harvest. Basis was really bad.

And then it felt like a flip was switched as harvest was progressing, which usually means corn's coming to the market and the market goes down, whether it's basis or futures or both. It almost saw the opposite. Not only did the board price start to go up, but basis was going up, especially out east. I can't speak to out west, but there was a lot of areas where we saw anywhere from a $0.20 to $0.50 improvement in basis. Just from the worst scenario early August till, call it a week ago. And it begs the question, you also see that this cash markets, the basis being strong spreads. I mean, Dec-March, everybody was talking about that getting to $0.20 to $0.25 because there's going to be so much corn, we have to pay $0.08 a month to hold on to it. It's into $0.11, an astonishingly low amount given a perceived big crop.

And I remember vividly back in 2019, because that was during the end of the tail end of Trade War 1.0. Hopefully we really don't have 2.0, but I know we're going to talk about that. And I'll never forget, like, the bean market, it was like $8.50 or something crazy low. I remember it had an 8 in front of it, and the idea was we had a 900 million carryout. And based on that, cash markets and spreads should also be just miserable. Spreads should be extremely wide. In other words, front month to back month, back month should be way higher, should be a big carry. But it wasn't the case. If anything, cash markets were strong and the spreads were inverted. I remember sitting there, I was like, this doesn't make sense. The USDA is telling us one thing, huge carryouts, and the cash markets are telling us something dramatically different.

And eventually we saw a massive rally in the bean market that year as they had to essentially say we were wrong. I think it was production and demand. Both production went down, demand went up. I don't think it's going to be as dramatic now, but I definitely feel like the cash markets are saying we have less of total supply, especially on corn. And we're starting to see that November's USDA, they did lower the yields a bushel to a bushel and a half. Had pretty decent impact to the bean carryouts. Corn, it's like every month for the last 4 months, they've made the carryouts a little bit tighter, just a little bit at a time. Never enough to give the farmers what they want, but enough to put a floor under this market.

But I just— reading the tea leaves, I feel like in January, we're gonna perhaps wake up and realize corn yields were either less or possibly that bearish surprise on June 30th when they found all those corn acres there. It's not uncommon for those stocks and acreage reports to be wrong. And they could maybe realize that we didn't add as many corn acres as we thought as a possibility. So I'm optimistic through January. The one thing I would say is, um, I don't know, we were in our group, we talk a lot about original harvest, oknov, new harvest really is everybody harvests in October, November, but they have so much on-farm storage, they put it all in the bin. And then all that corn floods the market again in December, January, February. And I do believe that will be the case. I think collectively there's less corn. But I think a lot of that corn will have to move this year in February.

I can't tell you how many conversations I'm having of cash flow needs, They're way up. We need a lot more money sooner. And simple math says we got to sell more bushels to get the same dollars. And it's shocking to think about, like, the average guy who held on to half his crop into the very end of summer this year is, I feel like, going to do almost the opposite, which is because of math, they have to move more to pay those bills off. And the feeling of it not working. It's just the sentiment is now like, I'm just not going to hold corn into the summer again. And it just tells me, I feel like the best move now will be hold corn into the summer. So I'm, I'm optimistic. I do know there's some geopolitical headwinds here. And I feel like this is going to be a story of cash markets versus the futures.

The futures are going to be at the whims of the perception of what Trump's going to do and tariffs and possibly impacts to the economy, impacts to crude. Like if he's drill baby drill and production goes way up and price goes down, that's going to hurt the price of ethanol, hurt the margins. So there's going to be so many moving factors. But I think underlying trend in corn specifically, I think will be higher. Um, doesn't mean you avoid good discipline and sell a little bit on each rally. Um, but I'm optimistic, uh, for the first time in a few years here.

Joe

Paulson: So, well, you bring up some good points. Um, you know, it, it does, it, it feels, it feels a little bit different. And, you know, in 2019 when they just massively missed the prevent plant that didn't show up in their summer reporting. And then when it came back around in January, and they revised all that stuff, or maybe it was the following year in '21. It was, but it's like, what are, what, what could they be missing? And I remember that with the beans, you bring that up about the beans too, because we're like, back, you know, we don't have quite as big a domestic carryout as we did back then. But globally, I mean, aren't we just under absolute record global, you know, supply is going back almost close to 25 years. And, you know, the old adage that when everybody's running to one side of the boat, should you start running back to the other side of the boat?

Jeff

Fichtelman: The world balance sheet in beans. And that's where I specified corn specifically because I think demand for corn is still resilient. Bean demand is definitely a little more squishy. South America is becoming more competitive. Honestly, the US dollar, um, our rates are going back up, interest rates, for a few reasons. Uh, but inflation is maybe a little more sticky than what we want it to be. Doesn't mean it's 9%, but a more consistent 3 or 4 versus the world. Our rates seem to be going up, and that's making our dollar strong. The perception of pro-America first is pro-US dollar. Well, that's great from a patriot perspective, but it's not good from an ag economy because we export our, our goods and an expensive dollar means our goods are expensive. And therefore we've seen the dollar just go straight up.

And that's making— we were actually very competitive against South America for the last 2 months in beans. We did see decent demand. I mean, not, not record demand, but we saw decent export demand for beans. But gosh, that dollar just ripped higher. And now South America, by no fault of their own, it's because of the dollar alone, they became competitive again. So I think there's— and I also think just another thing on my mind is like, I do think If we have this quote-unquote trade war, in other words, Trump comes in day one and adds a bunch of new tariffs, very similar to what happened in market impact from the Ukraine war. You think day, week one when Russia bombed Ukraine ports, the markets reacted crazy, like up $1.50. The 10th time they bombed Ukraine ports, it was like, it was up 15 cents, and then by the end of the day it was back down.

There's this weird phenomenon in markets where the second, third, fourth time things happen, the impact to markets seem to be more muted. So I don't think Trade War 2.0 will be as bearish as 1.0. It doesn't mean it's— markets will go up, but I think maybe they aren't going to go straight to $8 like we saw. I think a lot of kind of market pundits or, or surmising here a little bit. And honestly, I talked to my guys for '25 right now, and you probably know best because you guys are really good at calculating costs. '25 beans at $10.20 and corn at $4.50 or $4.40, beans don't pencil at all. Like corn at least is manageable, but most guys cannot make money at $10.20 beans right now with costs where they are. I'd be curious to get your perspective on '25. In that sense.

Joe

Paulson: So that's actually one of the things I was going to bring up is that the conversations that I am having with row crop farmers are, you know, planting more corn next year. You know, there's, you know, I mean, even, even, even myself personally, you know, I'm looking at having, you know, 20% corn on corn, and I haven't raised corn on corn in probably 5 or 6 years to any kind of amount. And this year I'm going to have, you know, 25 and have quite a bit more. And some of that is just, you know, logistics and other parts of it are— it just pencils better, you know. And so every, every, every field that I have that's a good corn on corn candidate is actually going to go back to corn this year. So going back to when people are running to one side of the boat, And then you talk about this, you know, '19 when it was a 900 million bushel carryout.

Could beans be good property 12 months from now? I don't know.

Jeff

Fichtelman: It's, it's a leap of faith if— let's just— because obviously it's a long time before February. So guys still have a lot of time to make those shifts. But let's pretend we end up in February at $4.40 and $10.20. To be the contrarian and maybe plant more beans would be actually, I think, the smart play because you're right, almost across the board, guys are talking about more corn. Now, I'm optimistic that we'll see carryout shrinking this year. But if we plant a bunch of corn next year, it's just going to put a lid on the potential rallies. And that's the hard part is I think we are in a world for at least the next few years where rallies will disappoint us every time, but we have to at least sell something. And in my mindset is like, every time we're up a few days in a row, a week in a row, at least sell something.

I don't even care if it's— oh yeah, officials— like, maintain the discipline to sell those rallies, because if every time you sold was on a 1-week rally, you're gonna have a pretty darn good average, and You're obviously not going to time the high, but you won't be timing the low either. Uh, the tough thing is every time we rally, we want to believe so badly that there it is, this time's different, we're actually going to sustain it. Um, there will eventually be a time it does, but gosh, I feel like these rallies are frustrating. And, uh, so, and I definitely don't think you need to sell all of it either, but I love your point, Joe. It's like now's the time as a farmer to, to try and be a little contrarian here. Like, I think holding on to some corn into the summer actually might work. But also plant beans next year, as scary as it feels right now, might work too.

I don't think you have to go 0 to 100 on that. But maybe don't always shift all the way from—

Joe

Paulson: I watched, I, you know, cut my teeth during the ethanol boom. You know, my first year farming on my own was '07, rented it fall of '06 before things started, you know, taking off. And, you know, I thought by the end of '08, I thought money literally grew on corn plants and, and then got sobered up real hard in 2009. I also watched some operations vacillate widely on what the rotation was. I had a lot of neighbors that went 100% corn during that time period. I had— and then there was a few that just did the same thing every year. They didn't let the market, you know, dictate that they were going to go way corn or way beans. And they just stayed the course. And when I look back at, when I look back at that, I think those guys made just as much money as the other guys.

They, you know, see some opportunities, obviously first year corn, you know, you just, you know, generally does better. And, you know, and then, and then the equipment side of it, they didn't need as many trucks, they didn't need as many, you know, their grain setup, they didn't need as much storage. And it— that's not a bad play either. So, you know, it's just guys got to look at their numbers and dip the toe in the water maybe one way or the other. Um, look at the stock markets.

Jeff

Fichtelman: I'm a big fan of like understanding how a person ticks, or because how they think about the rotations, the marketing side, it has to align with how they tick. And I think there are guys out there that feel uncomfortable making big swings. Mhm. Based on that, they should be the kind of folks that just every year does the same thing, because you're right, it's kind of like the stock market. If you try and chase rallies and run away on breaks, you're going to get in big trouble versus the person who just every week buys the same amount. Now, that's not the most sexy way, and there are perfectly— there are some examples of people who can time markets well. I think there is a place, though, for guys who are highly calculating to say, hey, next year I can pencil corn, so I'm going to market and sell and manage my risk accordingly.

So I think it's like, understand how you tick and stay in the lane that— but build discipline and barriers around yourself not to get in trouble. Because if you're a person that loves to gamble and loves the action, you better put some barriers around yourself to make sure you don't get in trouble. Because this market's a lot harder. We're now flirting with $300 an acre profits or $150. We're flirting with $70 an acre profits or negative $100. It's like, it's, it's a far different world that we're living in. And I'm hoping that it's not going to be here for a long time, but it could be here for at least a couple more years.

Joe

Paulson: The downtimes also seem like that's when my operation grew. That's where the opportunities were. I mean, when things were ripping higher, you know, it was, it was a good time to kind of play things close to the vest. And you bring up a good point about the discipline. You know, it's, and if you are planting more corn because you think that's, you know, where you're going to make the most money, you better be selling some of that, uh, ahead of time to lock that in. Because there's nothing worse than, you know, you did this to make more money and then you get there and the market switched on you.

Jeff

Fichtelman: So I'm curious to ask you, Joe, so we actually started in the industry around the same time. I started in '07 as well. And I've always noticed, I feel like everybody I meet has a lean, a preference in markets. They're either a natural bear or natural bull. They're there are a few people that are able to just not carry the way. And starting when you did, where the market went straight up, straight down, and then eventually back up again through 2012, do you feel like that imprinted on you a lean or a preference one way?

Joe

Paulson: I almost felt more comfortable in the low times because, um, you know You know, that's interesting. I mean, I had a father that was, is, you know, a super big numbers guy. And if I wanted to do anything at all, he'd always say, yeah, you show me where that makes money and we'll do it. And, you know, which knocked out about 85% of all my ideas. But, uh, you know, knowing your numbers and then, you know, having 2 good years and then getting your nuts clipped on the 3rd year big time.

Jeff

Fichtelman: Yeah.

Joe

Paulson: Uh, you know, that pain was so bad that I never ever wanted to have that happen again. So then I was super diligent in the numbers and understanding that, and it made me a better manager. And then when times were low, That's where I felt like I, you know, uh, could do better than the next guy because I was good at managing those really low margins. And, uh, you know, Dad always said farming was like climbing a ladder and that, you know, in the bad years, if you could just hang on to the rung you were on, that was, that was huge. And then, and then when times were good, you were able to grab a couple of rungs. So my bias— am I a bear? Am I a bull? I'm a, I'm a realist. And I am also a heavy forward marketer. And some of the best marketing advice I ever, you know, ever got was actually from, you know, him and I actually farm or collaborate together.

He told me in the beginning, he said, whatever, whatever you do, do the same thing every single year. And he goes, you'll be all right. You start vacillating to, you know, I'm going to forward sell everything this year. Oh, that was the wrong thing to do. So now I'm not going to sell anything. He says, just do the same thing every year and that'll, that'll, that'll, that'll bring, bring you through. And when I look at, you know, simple averaging contracts, You know, this year I had a local elevator that I work with, they called me the 1st of April. They said, hey, let's do a seasonal high averaging contract. So it ran from April 1st through July 1st. You know, that ended up being a $442 cash, you know, sale. And, you know, just doing simple average stuff, you know, being average isn't isn't bad.

Jeff

Fichtelman: So I could tell you, universally agree with that, because my entire career I always say I tried to beat the blind monkey, which is a simple average, and that is really hard to do. Like, it is— those averages are pretty darn impressive, especially when you add just a smidge of element to say like, yeah, the seasonals tend to be pretty good, and, and it removes the emotion. And two things I want to emphasize that you, you mentioned I mean, this impacts me in a big way and my own money. I manage stuff like in own businesses, but all the farmers I meet who know their numbers inside and out can live through any market because they know their numbers and they know exactly how each market impacts them. And it's just like they're so even-keeled that there is nothing that gets them upset or emotional.

And opposite of that, guys who have no idea of their numbers at all, ride that emotional roller coaster every year no matter what. Even little waves get them to extremes. And, and it's just something interesting because when you don't know the numbers, it's like your brain assumes the worst in, in those volatile moments. But when you know them, you realize, hey, even if the market's here, I can make money this way, or I can manage this way. So knowing your numbers is so absolutely key. And I'm a big believer, like, just observing. I mean, we work with a good amount of farm families. So I see kind of all into the spectrum is like every guy has a lean, and a lot of times they almost will the market to go the way they want it to. And some of them tend to put too much, too many bets in that, that bucket.

Like guys who are always bullish have a really hard time forward selling like really hard time because, uh, we have a couple guys that, I mean, every day they, they wake up more bullish than the last. And it's like, if we tell them to sell even 5% of their production and they do it, and then it goes up 10 cents the next day, they're calling up, lift that hedge, get me out of there, I don't want to be in it. Whereas, and I see on the opposite side, guys who are mega bears, love a down market, it's like they sleep better at night when the market goes down. Like, they want to be 80% sold early. So I almost feel like if you can understand your lean, you know where to hedge yourself. If you know you're a bull, you got to be— push yourself out of your comfort zone and be a little more of a forward seller. Doesn't mean you have to go nuts.

And I always tell guys too, I'm like, You should appreciate those moments where you're regretting the sales that you made because that means it's probably a good market to sell more into. Like the minute you say, get me out of the hedge, we're probably darn close to the highs. It's like this phenomenon I've seen for the last, gosh, 18 years of being in this industry or whatever. It's like every time a guy calls me up, panic, get me out. It's like we're within a day or two of the high, like magic. And I'm like, Good Lord, I need to tell you, not only are we not doing that, we're going to sell more. And those moments are rare. We need to cherish them because they're so good at timing the high for some reason.

Joe

Paulson: So knowing yourself is, you know, I've kind of fell not necessarily in love, but like, you know, Courage Calls. I'm not a big advocate of options. They can be complicated and they can give you also a false sense of security as well. But there's been some times where I've looked at, you know, every time, you know, obviously farming is all about risk management. And, you know, we have risk everywhere. And every time I sell a bushel, you know, I'm unloading some risk. And, you know, I tend to look at, you know, the You know, the beautiful thing about Profit Manager is, is that, that it, it, it's, it helps you feel the winds are changing. You know, you start, you, you got your numbers in there and you start playing with different scenarios of price and yield and that kind of thing as you're going on through the year.

And, and when you start to feel that wind change in a bearish manner, You know, you know, you can go and look at the market, you can type stuff in and, you know, you start to feel where things are going. It's like, you know what, it is an absolute base hit if I unload 25% of my bushels today to get me to 50%. And if the market rips higher and I'm wrong, you know what, I'm going to buy— I'm going to buy half of those back with calls. The caveat to that is, is go into that with a plan. You know, when I can make 10, 15 cents on that call, we're going to put in a sell order for that and just have that offer out there. And when you get there, it just automatically happens while you're sleeping a lot of times. And, uh, you know, you're like, yep, that, that worked perfect. And a lot of times that's when she goes back the other way.

Jeff

Fichtelman: Yeah, I mean, you're exactly right. Two things. When it comes to options, I always prefer to start simple. I feel like options, the use for them is to allow somebody a bridge from a bad marketing position to a good one. In other words, if we know they need to sell more, but they're so concerned about upside, if we sell, say, 25% to get you to some number, and we add upside on half of them, it allows them to sleep at night. It's like, okay, even though I sold today and I locked it in, if we go up tomorrow, I still have participation on some of those through the call. I wouldn't do the call if they weren't going to sell, correct? And vice versa, the same way, like guys who maybe are mega bears, it's like, hey, how do we protect just in case we're wrong? Like, it's, it's always bringing us back to the middle.

And I love your point um, the greatest results for me when it comes to options is the day I enter, I immediately place a good till cancel sell order on at least some of those at some desired profit target, and I leave it there. Because yeah, I feel like looking back, I mean, just guessing, 90% of the time I get filled on a chunk, and that was probably the best time to sell all of them. And it's like whenever I try and outsmart the market to sell the rest, I end up missing the good moments versus that built-in discipline. And you're right, highs tend to happen at night, so not during the nice day hours of what, 8:30 to 1:15 in Central Time.

Joe

Paulson: So exactly. So switching gears just a little bit, you know, obviously we have, um, you know, political winds are changing, whether, you know, No matter which side you're on, you know, that's what's happening. You know, do you have any major political concerns? I mean, obviously, the Trump tariffs on China, you know, how badly is that going to impact soybeans? But also, you know, the, you know, Elon's not a huge biofuels guy. The guy that's the head of the EPA is not a huge biofuels guy. You know, what, what are your, what are your thoughts in that, in that arena?

Jeff

Fichtelman: I admit I probably have the strongest conviction on one thing, which is a bit contrarian. I think the Trump presidency is actually going to send us into a recession and it's a healthy one and it's one that will probably reset a lot of things. But let's be real, all of that government spending, most of it does stay in the US. And it is a stimulus. It employs people who just simply need to be employed, may or may not be super skilled. And if we come in and cut a huge percentage of that workforce, people that work jobs for the government that are not high skilled, those people are going to have a really hard time finding jobs in the private sector. And if we cut all that government spending again, long term, I think we need to do it. But let's not pretend that it's going to be a fun environment.

Any time somebody spends more than they make, they got to have that hard reset and it's never fun in the process. I do worry a little bit that Trump is surrounding himself with anti-spenders. And unfortunately, ag is an industry that relies a little bit on government support, not in the negative connotation, but Yeah, the renewable biofuels needs that boost like ethanol did to get going. And if they're in a cut spending at all costs, it might be hard to justify some of those things. So I honestly, I, I think it's going to be a tough slog for the next 2 years. And that's why just know your numbers, sell when you get profitable L's. No, you don't need to go crazy. But let's, let's get through the next 2 years.

And to your point earlier, Joe, it's like, and we all have parents and grandparents who farmed through the '80s that like tell the story of like, man, he bought land at like $800 an acre, $1,000 an acre. Now it's worth like $12,000, $15,000, $20,000. And it's like those eras of time that were devastating at first blush also provided the best opportunity to grow. So this is a time just to buckle down, be very disciplined, know your numbers, and be smart about it. And I mean, it could be the best thing that ever happened to some farmers, but it's not going to be easy or pleasant. So I don't know, I'm grateful he's doing what he's doing. So I think Washington needs to be cleaned up. But I think it's going to be a little tougher than we all realize.

Joe

Paulson: I could not agree more on that end. And, you know, we're already seeing it in my neighborhood. I have, you know, we have land is, you know, I'm just outside of Chicago, about 15 miles. And, you know, there's a lot of investor money around. But the farmer, the farmer has backed away from the land buying table in my neighborhood, at least, and I think in a lot, a lot of the Midwest. Unless it's like a half-two piece. And the smart money knows that. And we've, you know, we're starting to hear some auctions that are bringing 70% of what people thought it was worth. And then, you know, some what I thought were bargains when they first came on the market. Here we are 3 months later and they have no— they've had offers, but they haven't taken any of them. They've all been significantly under what they were asking. And I thought the asking, I was surprised at what they were asking.

Jeff

Fichtelman: So, uh, I, I gotta say, like, the land market, I hate to even say it out loud, but is a bit of a house of cards for the whole grain industry because there is a ton of reliance on land value staying high. And we have all reason to believe that everything will be fine because we've ridden a lot of ups and downs, and land values are quite resilient. So I'm not going to pretend like I've got the foresight that they're all going down. But if land values get cut by 30 or 40%, there's a lot of banks that will get a real nervous situation. And we're already kind of working on pretty tight margins. And if banks start to freeze up and make things a little more difficult to borrow, like, there's a lot of dominoes that could fall in a not so pleasant way. The one thing too is We got a couple. It's very interesting. We have a couple I call them corporate farms.

Folks that live in San Francisco and California and they invest in farmland, but instead of just blindly renting it, they're trying to run the farm. And economics do not work. It's hard enough making money when it's just you and your son or just a one-farm operation, one person running it. But when they got staff, high cost of employment, like it just doesn't work. And also that money is not going to be there forever. I— they've been here a lot longer than I considered likely with rates going up. I think what happens is when land goes up for rent, if the bidding frenzy is not there, and rent starts to fall, then the price versus the rent they can get for it starts to really shake up that formula. So for now, it feels like that big money is still around, and I'm hoping that they'll get us through the next 3 or 4 years and provide a floor under this.

Although I guess it depends on who you ask. Farmers might want the price to come down so they could buy more, but guys who maybe aren't looking to buy more but just sustain maybe don't want it to come down. It's It's going to be a volatile 2 or 3 years, I think. More reason just to be smart, disciplined, know your numbers, and let's just get through it.

Joe

Paulson: But yeah, we'll just have to— we'll just have to ride it out, you know, like we always do. And, uh, you know, there's, there's a couple of principles that always work really well, and I, I guess that's the moral of our story today, is know your numbers, stay the course and keep your eyes on the horizon.

Jeff

Fichtelman: Yeah.

Joe

Paulson: Yeah. So do you have anything else that you want to talk about, Jeff, or, uh, you know, before, before we wrap this up?

Jeff

Fichtelman: I think I might have scared everybody enough, so no, I don't want to say anymore. But, uh, I mean, you, you nailed it, Joe. It's like we can get through it. Honestly, I think anybody under the age of 45 or 50 should see the next— and we might get a bull market and everything will be hunky-dory, but if, if we do go through a couple tough years, look at it as a glass half full optimistic setup where we can buy equipment cheap, hopefully could buy some land cheap. Um, like they always say, the best businesses are started in recession. So like, welcome it. The key is just don't be emotional, don't be swinging for the fences, as you say. Stay disciplined, be smart, lock in margin when you have it, protect when you don't. Like, there's ways we can get through it, and I think everybody will, everybody will do just fine.

Joe

Paulson: So going back to your one, my last thought is, is, um, you know, you asked what, what, what my slant is long-term. I'm extremely bullish ag. I look at, you know, the farms, the farms that are here right now, that are growing and progressive, are going to just— we have no choice but to expand, really. There's going to be, you know, a ton of ground that's going to turn over, that's going to go through the generational change just because of, you know, just the life cycle of people going through. And, uh, you know, there's, there's, you know, when I look around my neighborhood and I look at the amount of operations that I think are going to be here in the next 10, 15 years, it's probably about 60% of what is currently here. Um, just because of they either don't have somebody behind them or, uh, you know, they're, whatever. So I, I think, uh, you know, keep your eye on the horizon.

Jeff

Fichtelman: Yeah, there's a lot of growth that will come from people who have the capacity and the mindset to grow. And obviously, right, there'll be consolidation no matter what. Um, there's going to be a lot of farmers in the boomer, baby boomer generation that want to retire. And I mean, I was an early millennial, so to speak. I was born in '84, and it's like I came into the work world in a recession. And now, as if you're in a similar generation, you might get your dad handing you stuff and maybe it feels like these are some tough times, but makes you far more resilient and appreciative when those times are good too. So absolutely.

Joe

Paulson: Yeah. So one last housekeeping thing. I wanted to tell everybody that the Ag View conference is officially sold out. I think I'll have to ask Alyssa, but I believe this is the earliest we've ever sold it out. So that's fantastic. I'm very excited about the new venue down in Hollywood, Florida, and, um, can't wait to see everybody down there and, uh, maybe enjoy some warm weather in January. So everybody have a good week, and thanks for, uh, thanks for tuning in.