About This Episode
Chris Barron calls Levi Taylor in southeast North Dakota, about halfway between Bismarck and Fargo, in mid-April 2021. Despite the drought headlines, Taylor says growers in his area parked their wheat drills because fields were too wet, and some of that moisture is frost still working its way out of the ground. West of the James River conditions turn dramatically drier; east toward Fargo, growers caught an inch and a half to two inches of rain that set them up well for spring.
Acres will be up across the area after a prevent plant year that left many operations planting only a third to two-thirds of their farm. Taylor, who also sells seed for Pioneer, expects a late run on soybeans. Growers who booked fertilizer early have it priced for their corn, but he does not see anyone paying today's fertilizer prices to add 150 or 200 unplanned corn acres when those bonus acres can be slammed into beans instead.
Wheat acres look normal for his area, mostly limited to livestock operations and growers who follow a strict rotation. Basis has been the bright spot. New crop soybean bids run 70 to 75 under, or about 65 at a shuttle loading facility, which he calls a return to normal after the trade war. Corn basis has been unusually strong, from zero to 5 or 10 under against a typical 45 to 50 under, helped by a nearby ethanol plant and short local supply.
“The media, everything we're hearing is how dry it is in North Dakota, and you're telling us there's pockets where it's pretty wet.”
— Chris Barron
Key Takeaways
Drought headlines do not match every field: growers around southeast North Dakota parked wheat drills because of wet conditions, partly frost still leaving the ground.
West of the James River is dramatically drier; east toward Fargo growers caught an inch and a half to two inches of timely rain.
Acres will be up after a prevent plant year in which many operations got only a third to two-thirds of their farm planted.
Fertilizer prices are the swing factor: Taylor expects unbudgeted bonus acres of 150 to 200 to go to soybeans rather than corn.
New crop soybean basis runs 70 to 75 under, about 65 at a shuttle loader, which he considers a return to normal after the trade war.
Corn basis has run from zero to 5 or 10 under against a normal 45 to 50 under, a hangover from short local supply and a nearby ethanol plant.
Full Transcript
Chris
Barron: Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch and our crop series update to kind of see how things are going in certain areas of the world here as we get into planting season. And got a hold of Levi Taylor. You are in North Dakota. I was going to do this from the south to north, but sounds like you guys are a little dry up in your part of the world. How's it going today, Levi, and what's it looking like in your world?
Levi
Taylor: Yeah, well, it's going good. Thanks for having me on. Yeah, today beautiful day, Saturday afternoon, pushing about 65 degrees, sunny and no wind up in North Dakota, which is usually pretty, pretty rare. The wind's usually howling pretty good up here. But we are up in the southeast corner. We farm in the southeast corner of Stuttsman County in North Dakota.
Chris
Barron: Where's that exactly?
Levi
Taylor: Yeah, so that'd be about That'd be about halfway between Bismarck and Fargo and south by about 25 miles or so. And we are right on a kind of a major ridge when it comes to dryness in North Dakota. You go west of us to the James River and things dramatically get our a lot drier. When you get to the James River and head east, things are a little wetter, and we thought and figured we were going to be sitting here pretty concerned about, you know, dryness going into spring. And, you know, talking with a few neighbors and so forth, a lot of guys got going planting wheat, and they had actually parked the plant or parked the drills because they are they're running into wet field conditions, which is a night and day difference compared to our neighbors out so far, far west of us.
Chris
Barron: That's interesting, you know, because the media, everything we're hearing is how dry it is in North Dakota, and you're telling us there's pockets where it's pretty wet.
Levi
Taylor: Yeah, yeah, I mean, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna paint a broad brush on everything and by any means, but at least in our area and pockets in our area, and if you work your way further further east towards Fargo, you know, they, those folks actually caught some, some timely rains earlier in the week upwards of inch and a half to 2 inches in spots that are really setting them up for, for what it's looking like to be a really promising spring when it comes to moisture that those folks needed over there as well. But, but in our neck of the woods, you know, for the most part, not much tillage going on, not many Not many drills going on wheat. Things are kind of at a little bit of a standstill here until, until these fields dry out a little bit.
And I would preface to say that some of this excess moisture I think we're seeing is just still frost kind of coming, finally coming out of the ground in spots. It's always kind of a hit or miss deal up in North Dakota when you deal with the frost coming out of the ground. It's kind of a unique, a unique a unique situation for us up here when it, uh, with how long it takes for that to happen.
Chris
Barron: Yeah, as we get into the middle part of April here, what are you guys seeing in your area? I know you're a Pioneer sales agent as well, and so you're working with a lot of customers. What are crop rotations looking like in your area? A lot of corn, more soybeans, what's the mix looking like?
Levi
Taylor: Yeah, so I mean, for the most part, acreage is going to be up in general compared to last year with all the prevent plant we had in our neck of the woods. A lot of guys were lucky to get a third to two-thirds of their, of their farm in, so no doubt acres are going to be up this year. I'm seeing, what I'm seeing and what I'm expecting here is actually a little bit of a late season run on soybeans, you know, with where fertilizer prices were and where they're at now. I think it's pushing guys into a situation where if they didn't have enough fertilizer booked for all of their corn, and they have what I would call, you know, bonus acres coming to fruition, whether, you know, things drying up or them just, you know, not purchasing enough seed to begin with. I'm kind of expecting a little run on soybeans. So, you know, corn is definitely paying the bills out here.
For a lot of guys, but I also think it comes down to how much fertilizer they had bought or at a decent price maybe early on. I just don't see a lot of guys saying, hey, you know, we have another 200 acres, 150 acres that we didn't account for. I just can't see them paying, you know, a high price on fertilizer to go throw in some more acres rather than just, you know, slamming those into soybeans.
Chris
Barron: Mm-hmm. How's the wheat? Acres mix look compared to corn and soybeans? Is there any change there, or is that pretty, pretty normal?
Levi
Taylor: That's been pretty— it's been pretty normal in my neck of the woods here. You know, wheat's kind of been one of those, one of those crops where, you know, unless they're livestock guys or guys that, you know, strictly go by the book when it comes to crop rotation, we just have not seen a whole lot of wheat going in. So I mean, it's far and few between you know, you'll see some drills rolling across the board. But for the most part, you know, a lot of, a lot of corn and a lot of soybeans in our neck of the woods.
Chris
Barron: Last question for you, what's basis looking like for both old and new crop on the corn and soybean side of things up there with, you know, obviously it's a wheat area, but you guys grow a ton of corn and soybeans now, and basis has always been kind of an issue. Is basis pretty strong up there as well, or how's that looking?
Levi
Taylor: You know, we're looking at, you know, from a soybean standpoint, obviously with things settling down and with the trade war and those sorts of things, we've kind of got back what I would call into a norm, a little bit more of a normal basis situation. You know, I've heard the likes of 75 to 70 under, maybe 65 if you're going to a shuttle load facility for new crop soybeans. This early in the game, I think is is, you know, if you know you're going to be growing the crop and maybe you want to leave the futures open, you know, guys, maybe start looking at locking some of that basis in. So I mean, for the most part, we're kind of getting back into a normal routine there, which is really nice to see from a basis standpoint on soybeans. Corn, you know, we've been seeing some really nice attractive basis numbers on corn as well.
Obviously last year with the limited amount of acres that got in, in our area and a fairly large end user with an ethanol plant being nearby, it kind of threw things out of whack from a local standpoint, so to speak, where we were seeing some really nice numbers on corn basis. I mean, somewhere in the likes of a zero basis to maybe 5 or 10 under when we're normally used to seeing seeing probably like a 45 to 50. So there's still, I think, a little bit of hangover effect from that, that's playing into what we're seeing for front month corn or cash corn at this time right now. And moving forward, you know, I think there— we haven't seen a lot— I haven't heard a whole lot of basis levels for new crop corn yet with our end user, just with how volatile things have gotten.
But I fully expect probably, you know, to be looking at pricing some of that, or at least get some, some corn sold on the books here as we get the planters rolling.
Chris
Barron: Sounds good. Well, hey, really appreciate you taking the time. I gave you a call here and didn't give you any heads up and just wanted to touch base and see kind of how things are going in God's country in the middle part of North Dakota as planters are rolling in the south and as we work north with with visiting with people. We'll be back to you again. You guys be safe out there and good luck this spring, and really appreciate your time. Thanks a lot.
Levi
Taylor: Yeah, thank you, appreciate it.
Chris
Barron: You bet. And that was Levi Taylor from North Dakota, and we will be back again fairly soon here and kind of keep these crop updates going. And catch you again next time on the Ag View Pitch.