2027 Executive Business Conference · Jan 20–22, 2027 · Hollywood Beach, FL — registration opens Sept 8

Sunday night market outlook

Hosted by Chris Barron · with Duane Lowry

About This Episode

Harvest was running at 28 to 30 percent moisture, with a fifth to a quarter of the fields around Barron's operation still not black layered after the killing frost. His concern was propane. The dryer was running with the LP turned up as high as he had ever had it, and anyone drying that much wet corn should get supply locked down early rather than discover the shortfall in November. Snow in the Dakotas and a freeze reaching farther east were quietly trimming national production.

On basis, Lowry saw the buyer under more pressure than the seller. Ethanol plants and feeders had been unable to buy supply and had already given up on a big harvest ownership, so the elevator might shave five or ten cents off basis but not twenty. That is the moment to call multiple locations, push on the bid, ask for a wider delivery window, and question a moisture discount schedule that some elevators had already cut to half their normal program. Pennies a bushel become dollars an acre.

December corn settled at $3.97, and Lowry ruled out a twenty-cent break from there, putting resistance at $4.20 and heavy resistance from $4.30 to $4.40 before December. November beans at $9.36 he left open on the upside, refusing to name a resistance level while funds covered shorts and the billion-bushel carryout story collapsed toward 460 million. His instruction to producers was narrower than any of that: multiply your own yields by the price offered and decide whether this is a profitable year.

You got to run your own yield on your own bushels, your own operation, times the price you're offered, and is this a profitable year or not, and is it a desirable profitable year.

Duane Lowry

Key Takeaways

  1. Corn coming in at 28 to 30 percent moisture means LP usage well above plan, so lock down propane supply before the dryer tells you.

  2. Buyers were under more pressure than sellers, so basis could back off five or ten cents but not twenty.

  3. Call multiple locations and negotiate the moisture scale, not just the posted bid. Some elevators had already halved their normal discount schedule.

  4. Lowry ruled out a twenty-cent break in December corn from $3.97 and put resistance at $4.20, then $4.30 to $4.40 before December.

  5. Soybean carryout had gone from a billion-bushel story to 460 million while funds covered shorts, which is why he refused to name resistance.

  6. Run your own yields times the price offered and decide if the year is profitable before you care about anyone's resistance level.

Full Transcript

Narrator: The Ag View Pitch is created by Ag View Solutions to provide value to its clients and farmers like you. We'd like to welcome our new listeners today and encourage you to check out our other podcasts on The Ag View Pitch, which can be found on Apple Podcasts, Anchor, and Podbean. You can also find us on Facebook at Ag View Solutions and online at agviewsolutions.com. Enjoy.

Chris

Barron: Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we're starting a new week here. And so we've got myself, Chris Barron, and Dwayne Lowery here to have a little conversation on where we might be going on the markets for a new week. So how's it going today, Dwayne?

Duane

Lowry: Good, Chris. It should be an interesting week ahead. How's the harvest on the farm going?

Chris

Barron: Chris? It's going all right. You know, it's one of those years where I think, you know, we had, we finally had a killing frost, I think, that hit a lot of our clients in our farm operation too. You can tell basically the corn plants have shut down now with maybe 20 to 25% of the fields in our area not yet black layered, but I don't think it's going to be a big yield hit to even those late planted fields. It's just going to make dry down a major pain. We're seeing that even, you know, in our own operation. We're seeing a lot of wet, wet corn. We're harvesting right now 28, 29, 30% corn. I just talked to my nephew going across field here just a little bit ago. He said, you know, seeing areas in the field still 30%, and it's going to be a long fall if things don't dry down at some point.

But we've been wet, and I know a lot of our clients who work with us are kind of fighting some of the same things.

Duane

Lowry: Yeah, a lot of those acres are, are not going to dry down very fast at all, not like what we're used to seeing. And so we're just going to have to live with it, it looks like.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, I think so. It's, uh, the dryer's chugging away and kicking out a lot of steam, and I've got the LP turned on as high as I've ever had it. So we're gonna, we're gonna want to be thinking about that on the LP side of things too. I think if a grower is going to be drying and, and you haven't yet started, or you've started and you recognize you're using more than normal, might be prudent to be on the front end of the, of the line to get that stuff locked down if you don't have it locked down, or lock down what additionally a person thinks they're going to need, I think, too.

Duane

Lowry: Yeah, certainly good advice, I think.

Chris

Barron: So hey, Dwayne, let's, let's get rolling here on the corn market. You know, last week was pretty exciting. We— December corn, it finished off there at $3.97. We were actually up on Friday that 17.5 cents. And I know I was telling you offline, Alyssa, my wife sent me a little short video clip of Trump on our TV saying, you know, we're going to have the most amount of exports we've ever seen. And it's just going to be great with China and the billions and billions and billions of bushels. And you know how Trump is, he even made the comment, he's like, boy, farmers are just going to have to get ready to work a lot of overtime, like I guess we're not already working a lot of overtime. But anyway, kind of a, kind of a humorous thing.

But talk to us a little bit about the, about that conversation there, kind of what's going on on, on that front, and then any other things on the markets for corn.

Duane

Lowry: Well, President Trump is certainly a showman. The partial agreement, I think, is, or phase one of their China trade agreement, as it's being referred to, largely encompassed agriculture and kind of sets that apart is I feel like I want to say that part of it's kind of done. Maybe they have to sign some paperwork, maybe that holds off some buyers to, to a point that the marketplace could be a little disappointed with how fast some of the Chinese transactions may evolve from here. That's a possibility. But all the developments this week related to trade, I would say in terms of just focusing on it for agriculture. They're good, they're constructive, they set us back on a course that is getting— is going to end up at normal. What their demand levels are will remain to be seen. China is not going to buy anything just for the fun of it.

They're not going to buy anything just because they signed an agreement that they're going to buy X amount of dollars or quantities over the next 2 years. They'll buy it when it's right for them to buy it, when they think the price is right, etc. And so we don't know exactly how that unfolds. We don't even know exactly what markets they will purchase. If you spent some time reading different people's comments, by the time you're done reading all the comments and you total them all up, basically anything's fair game as far as what they buy. I think the The, probably the list of expectations probably are soybeans and pork near the top of the list. Corn really doesn't get mentioned, but I won't be surprised personally if they end up being a buyer of corn in the next, over the next few months. Wheat gets a mention. You got ethanol, people wondering if they're going to buy some ethanol.

There's been a lot of talk over the last year, year and a half that we've missed out on selling ethanol to them at a time where they wanted it. So I think that's a possibility. But again, we don't really know exactly how this will unfold. We don't really know exactly the, the timing of it. But on a baseline level, this is all very constructive developments. And the market traded this to some extent Friday during the session. So there was rumors about this. This is not suddenly a big shocker, but it is a a mover of the needle in terms of trader sentiment. And I think that the storyline from a combination of the trade comments, the trade developments, the weather forecast, snow in the Dakotas, killing freeze extending farther east and south than what was expected.

The impact may not be large, but there will be certain farm operations in certain fields that will be fairly decent of an impact. Overall, we can argue about the amounts, but the most important thing is that we have developments occurring in real time that are shaving off national production potential. And we also have a very late harvest, a very drawn-out harvest. We have a weather forecast that probably gives us several days of improving harvest conditions, but we also have a longer-range forecast that, that gives us disruptions along the way. Probably not long-lasting disruption, but disruptions nonetheless. You talked about the high moisture and the drying, the cost, and etc. But it's also a major slowdown to operations, further extending the harvest.

And in a year like this, where almost anything that could possibly go wrong has occurred, you know, we have to be wondering with all the snow in the Dakotas, we have to be wondering what's the chances that other areas in the Midwest are going to get earlier than normal snows at a time where harvest is later than normal and how much of this crop won't be harvested until spring and or during the winter. And, you know, so we got all of these things coming into play with the trade headlines, maybe the most inflammatory and emotional right at the moment, but all of them are joining together that we're going to have some strength this week. And my guess is it's the type of storyline that we'll be able to have legs and gain traction throughout the entire week. So it looks like we're going to start somewhat supportive.

I'm not sure how much we're up tonight because to an extent this was known Friday, but we'll be higher tonight. And I think that we'll probably have a firm tone through the week and we may find out that we're able to extend this market with a firm tone into the following week before we get a, you know, decent pullback. That's kind of my general overview.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, back to the demand thing real quick, just a quick question, but do you think that the, that news and, and, you know, where that might be trending now from the demand perspective, is that going to push these quote unquote demand bears to the sidelines a little bit, or, or do they, or what do you think on that one?

Duane

Lowry: Well, I think the truth be known, they've been pushed to the sidelines for a few weeks. They keep uttering words, but The marketplace is beating them up and the market's been performing well, been performing, outperforming a lot of people's expectations and significantly outperforming the demand bearers' expectations. And my guess is the demand bears, due to price action and the amount the market has already moved, you know, they're suddenly going to go silent for a while. I made the comment after on one of the podcasts we did last week that I think we've seen the worst demand projections we're going to get throughout the next year from USDA in terms of their reporting. And I think the demand projections will get better.

Um, how much better, I'm not sure, but like I've said at different times before, I think the whole demand narrative, the poor demand, that's, that's only in the rearview mirror. The windshield is filled with different things and more optimistic things, or less negative things, however you want to look at that. So Yeah, I think the demand bears are going to have to be silent for a while.

Chris

Barron: Okay, let's stick to corn for a second specifically. And so, you know, from a fundamental, you know, we've kind of talked about the harvest and delays and all that. Two kind of quick questions on the, on the top side of that. I mean, what are the technical and fundamental levels maybe we could possibly see this week? And I know this is perspective, and this is just kind of your, your thoughts, and then also to the downside, any, any kind of risk there?

Duane

Lowry: Well, let's start with the downside. In terms of corn, I don't see a lot of downside right now, right at the moment from Friday's levels. You know, could, could the market go down and trade? Oh, I don't know. Let's, let's put it this way. Last week we had a low of $3.78 and a quarter, and that was Thursday's low. And so let's start there. Can the market go back to that level? My first quick answer is no. And how confident am I in that? I would say quite confident. So that, that is 20 cents below Friday settlement. So I've defined one level that I don't think we're going to. So I don't think we'll go 20 cents lower than Friday settlement. Could we go 5 or 10 cents lower than Friday's settlement? Maybe, but if it is, it will be short-lived and it'll be well supported. So I would say that support levels on a short-term basis in corn is not that far below Friday's levels.

So I don't see a lot of near-term weakness there. As far as resistance is concerned, um, I think, uh, Dec corn will have a lot of resistance between $4.30 and $4.40. That's 30 to 40 cents higher than Friday's settlement basically. I think the resistance begins at around $4.20. That's about $0.20 higher. And, you know, could we get to those levels this week? I would say it's very conceivable that we could get to $4.15, $4.20 during the next several days. Whether we get to $4.30 or $4.40, I'm not sure what— what it's— whether that's happening quickly or not. But I, I guess I expect that to happen before the 1st of December.

Chris

Barron: So what does that spell out for basis if you're right? And let's say we see that we trend a little higher here this upcoming week, maybe into the following week. Should a grower, if they know they've got to sell some corn yet, be locking that basis in advance of that? Or should you be kind of doing that at the same time, the basis and price action there? And I know that's by individual grower, but Any thoughts on, on that?

Duane

Lowry: Well, so far there has been little advantage and maybe disadvantage to being too quick to lock in basis, and we've had some very high spot nearby bids and people paying much more than their posted bids for nearby shipment. I would imagine with the, the combination of Friday's strength and improved harvest window in front of us in terms of weather I would imagine some of the, the premiums for the very spot shipment are going to go away. So then we're talking about the gut slot harvest bids. They might attempt to weaken that a little bit if the futures market goes up. I'm not sure how successful they will be. They'll probably be successful temporarily reducing that basis level. But it's going to only be able to weaken if we can get the futures market up to a level that the farmers are willing to sell. I don't know what that level is right, right at the moment.

Uh, if it was late in the harvest season and we're trading above $4.20, um, December futures, and we have basis bids similar to what we have now, I think by the time we get to that end of the harvest, I think the farmer will be a seller at that combination of price levels. Whether or not he's anxious to be the first seller this week I kind of have my doubts, but the cash buyers will try to use a futures market as a good excuse to back off on their basis. After having said that, if you try to put yourself in the shoes of the user, whether that's a livestock feeder, an ethanol plant, or who it is, you know, they've been very frustrated. They have not found it easy to buy supply. And when you talk to them on an individual level, they're very worried about whether or not they're going to come out of harvest with the kind of supplies that they would like to have.

They've already given up on getting a big ownership at harvest time. And now they're at the point where they're trying to figure out, well, you know, if I don't get stuff bought at harvest time, how difficult is it going to be to buy that once a farmer has locked up his bin? So I think the buyer, whether it's ethanol, livestock feeder, or whatever, I think they have a greater urgency to buy this than maybe the producer might feel. Producer might feel he's the one under the pressure. But I think the truth be known, I think the cash buyer is feeling quite a bit of pressure as well. So we can back off basis to some extent, we're not going back to normal levels, we're not going to back it off 20 cents from where it's at. You know, could we back it off 5 or 10? Maybe.

I would say that anytime the producer can get these spot, you know, nice notable premiums, and he knows he's got to make some deliveries at harvest time, you know, and it might be advantage to try to take care of that. I'm not sure how far in advance he needs to be established in that basis, and I'm just going off the history that so far it's, it's not really been much of an advantage to be quick to pull that trigger.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, the, the other thing, just as an observation, and I know you and I have talked about this offline a little bit, Duane, but excuse me, but there are— a lot of moisture breaks going on out there too, because guys are holding off because of the wet corn. And I think just good advice for people to go out and make sure you're calling whoever, wherever you're going to be delivering your grain. You know, I know the Cedar Rapids area where we're at, and in some other areas we've talked to clients where they've gotten some really sizable, where maybe they their normal moisture doc, they're going 50% of whatever their normal program is. And then, you know, you can look at a posted number. Let's say that it's +15 or +20 or plus whatever, or even whatever it is for your area. I definitely wouldn't be just taking that number and calling them and taking that number.

I think we have room for negotiation there too, don't we, Dwayne? I mean, it seems like you make a phone call and, and you can talk them into a little, uh, better than what's posted.

Duane

Lowry: I definitely agree with that. I think one of the podcasts we did last week, I, you know, spoke fairly forcefully that the farmer is in a position now that, um, you know, the buyer really needs it. So I mean, if there was ever a time to make sure you're checking multiple locations, if there was ever a time to challenge the buyer to get a little more aggressive on their bid, or give you a little bit more attractive delivery window period, extend that premium spot bid a little bit farther, or as you're describing, a little better moisture scale, this is it. This is that time of year. Don't let that opportunity go by. I mean, you know, it doesn't take very many pennies a bushel to all of a sudden add up to the equivalent of dollars per acre.

And there's a lot of times, you know, these type of marketing opportunities aren't going to occur every year, and they're not going to occur at all times during the year. I would definitely use it as much as you can to your advantage, and I agree with you wholeheartedly that it's worth a look and worth the discussion. And don't be afraid to ask because, you know, the buyer has been known to— once a price gets put out there for an offer, he's been known to take it.

Chris

Barron: Right. Okay, let's shift over to soybeans now. Last Last week we closed out Nov beans at that $9.36 area, up about 12.5 on Friday with the demand news and that kind of stuff. What's your parameters on soybeans going into this week? It looks like hopefully anyway, guys are going to be able to get combines moving, get— start to be bringing some of that in and getting a little bit more information out as we move through the week, get the snow melted and dry some things off here. But What's your thoughts on the resistance to the upside? And is there some risk to the downside?

Duane

Lowry: Well, let's talk about November beans. We'll talk about the support levels first on a short-term basis. I would classify short-term technical support in November beans at $9.20. That's $0.16 below where we settled Friday. So are we going to break $0.20 from Friday's settlement in the near future? I'm going to say no. I'm going to say Highly unlikely. In terms of resistance levels, well, back up again. In terms of support, I think in, in basic terms, the soybean market will be very well supported, not very far at all below Friday's settlement. And so if you think that you're going to get a sizable correction in the bean market, it's going to have to start from some higher level. It's not going to start from where it is right now.

In terms of resistance, short-term resistance, I'm not even sure what price level to put on it because the bean market has been so cheap from a historical perspective. It's been so cheap from a price relationship perspective. And so much of that has been driven by two main things. Number one, the China trade situation, and number two, the, uh, uh, $1 billion carryout discussion. And suddenly in the last report, the marketing year we're in now, we're gonna— got carryout projected at $460 million. And, and even if they left production unchanged, that number will probably only shrink in the months ahead. I happen to think the production numbers are going to be coming down, so I think those— that carryout level is going to be coming down.

So both of those narratives that have held beans, you know, depressed and cheaper from a relationship perspective than they, they should be, both of those factors are changing. They either have changed, in the process of changing, or however you want to look at that. So I'm a little unsure what that resistance level is in beans. The funds have reversed and got out of their short position. They had held that short position for a very, very, very long time. They were short even in the summer rally. They are now out of shorts. They are a small long, and my guess is they're going to continue to get longer. And so I would say that you have to look at the soybean market as kind of just kind of beginning here and having some adjustments to accomplish. So I'm not sure where the resistance is.

Rather than put a price level on resistance, I'm going to tell you that that the soybean market may stay firm into the end of this week and, and possibly into the early part of next week. And I think wherever we get to at that point, that will probably become a resistance level. I don't know what that level is right at the present time. It's— I don't even feel the need to try to figure out what that resistance level is. I think I'll just let the market show me what it is. My sense is there's going to be buying enthusiasm here. And I think that there'll be price action that will be constructive and be able to build upon itself. And I'm not going to pick an area, I'm just going to wait till basically a week from now, next Sunday, then I'll have an answer to that question. Right now, I'm not sure what that answer is.

Chris

Barron: So you're not a big fan of giving up ownership of soybeans, needless to say, then, huh?

Duane

Lowry: No, I'm not. And I didn't even mean that in the context that we're just going to go to the moon and I don't even want to find resistance. I really, truly meant it in a manner that it feels like there's some pent-up buying that's going to take some adjustment type of buying activity and price action activity. And, uh, I'm not willing to step in front of that because sometimes in these situations you get— you're guilty of looking through a microscope when you should back off of the microscope and just try to get a broad-angle view. And I'm afraid that if I dial into some short-term resistance and say, well, there'll be resistance at 950 You know, I, number one, I'd be guilty of pulling that out of thin air.

Number two, I don't think that there's a, some minor resistance level here that can't easily be taken out by the change in market dynamics that we are experiencing right at the moment. And so I'm not willing to say what it is because I'm not sure what it is. And I would rather let the market tell me that. And I think that um, we'll have a better handle at after we've traded this week, and then the market will get to a level where that resistance develops. I'm guessing it's going to be more at the end of the week, like Friday, or into the early next week. And I'll just leave it at that. It's not— that statement wasn't meant to mean that there is no resistance, we're just going to go straight up. It was strictly meant that I don't know what that resistance level is, but I think by the end of this week and early next week we will have one established and figured out what it is.

And I think that'll be— that's the only comfortable way I have of answering that question.

Chris

Barron: Gotcha. Okay. Anything else as we head into the new week that, you know, we kind of talked corn and soybeans and a little bit about the demand story and stuff that's going on. We covered the report in the last podcast. So if anybody didn't hear that, they can listen to that. But is there anything we didn't really talk about that that we need to be cognizant of going into a new week?

Duane

Lowry: Well, I don't want to dive too far into the reports that we've already talked about last week, but I think the general theme came out— coming out of the September monthly USDA report was that they largely punted on yield projections for October. And I think that the marketplace, right or wrong, is going to, to begin to believe or fear that yields on a national level are going to ratchet lower. They're either going to come to that conclusion based on harvest results we've already had that kind of lean that way, at least in my opinion. They're going to come to that conclusion on the expanded amount of harvest results we get here over the next week. And I think the price action itself will cause people to focus on that type of narrative as opposed to focusing on the poor demand or poor or trying to focus on better than expected yields.

I think the, the other things are more likely to gain traction. So that's the first thing I want to say. We're dealing with a backdrop now where the marketplace has to respect the possibility that national yield ideas are, are working lower. The next thing I want to say is soybeans, uh, spot soybean futures right now at Friday settlement are the highest they've been since June 13th, 1918, just to give perspective. And so the market is that far off the lows, we're above the summer highs in the spot contract. The corn market is, is, you know, 50 cents off its early September lows. And the amount of strength we've had from early September forward, the vast majority of the trade has missed this. Okay, they've either been absent on the sidelines, trading from the short side or whatever, but they've not been long.

Now we have a narrative where the public is going to maybe want to buy this, the farmer might want to buy this. So, you know, the speculator is, is moving, they've covered their short bean positions, they're likely to build on it. The corn position, they're still short 90,000 contracts. And that was in Friday's Commitment of Traders report. That was after they had been a net buyer of over 35,000 contracts, they're still short 90,000 contracts. I find it difficult to believe that the large speculator is going to feel comfortable being short 90,000 contracts of corn. So I think they're going to come and try to get, get that. And before it's done, I think they'll be completely forced out of their short positions. And those, the large specs have not made money in the corn market this year.

They've been caught too long at the tops, they've been caught too short at the bottoms, and I think they're going to be running them to the sidelines. The, the large specs are still short wheat, Kansas City and Chicago. They've been covering some of that. But I would imagine they're not going to feel comfortable staying there. So there's a lot of things here that can drive some buying activity. And in some respects, this feels like we're just going to— we're just kind of getting started. And I don't mean that in a manner that says we're going a lot, lot higher. I mean that as a way of expressing there's a lot of buying energy to come at this market from multiple sectors of trade. Number one, the shorts are going to want out.

Number two, you're going to have some new buying coming at it from both fundamentals like users that have been waiting for a harvest break, didn't get it, and now they're going to feel compelled that they better go get coverage. And you're going to see some small specs coming to buy this thing as well. So there's, from that standpoint, I feel that we're just kind of starting something. So we don't know how much ground we can cover with that buying energy. Maybe, maybe there's some limitations on that, but you know, it, it takes a little time for that to unfold. We're not going to get a half a day to a day and a half reaction from all the things we've talked about already this far. And then the market's going to sell off for 2 weeks. That's highly unlikely. We're going to build some momentum here, see how far we can get over this week's timeframe.

Then maybe we get some sort of a correction. But we're going to— it appears to me we're set for a little bit longer lasting strength. The other thing I want to point out is November '20 beans have rallied $0.80. Okay. Dec '20 corn has largely been a gatepost. It hasn't really moved a whole lot, whether you looked at it this summer or looked at the decline from July into September, or whether you looked at the, the price action that we've had since then. All the action's been on the front end. And so with Nov '20 beans having gained 80 cents on Dec corn since, say, May, Okay, it probably needed to gain $1 just to get some of their calculations for producers when they start contemplating 2020 acreage decisions. It probably— beans needed to gain $1 just get back to something closer to normal.

But if you get 20-cent rally in Dec '20 corn, and I'm not necessarily projecting, I'm just offering a perspective here, you get a 20-cent rally, 200 bushel corn, that's $40 an acre. Well, 50 bushel beans, that's basically 80 cents. So you got— you might have, uh, if you can get 20 cents in corn, there's another 80 cents in beans that have to accomplish that in order to keep up with it. I continue to believe there's a high probability that we are going to have that acreage battle narrative develop at some time between now and through the winter months, and I think that's going to be something else to watch. The last thing that I want to point out is The corn spreads have been very strong. They have been aggressively buying the front end, not so much Dec '20. The bean spreads have been very strong buying the front end, not so much the deferreds.

I think that's going to remain a theme probably through much of the winter, where the strength comes in the front end, not so much in the new crops, not so much in even the July contracts next summer. It's all going to be front end loaded. Uh, that probably means basis is going to have a firm tone through much of the winter. And, uh, I think that, uh, producers are going to be given some opportunities here, probably while they're still harvesting, that between a combination of cash basis levels, futures price gains, and, uh, a cash market that will have removed a lot of the carry incentive to keep it, Farmers need to be spending a lot of time knowing exactly what their costs are. Compare that with what their own yields are on their own operation, and don't care about what anybody else says about this projection or that projection or resistance here. None of that's important.

You got to run your own yield on your own bushels, your own operation, times the price you're offered, and is this a profitable year or not, and is it a desirable profitable year. If you get to those levels, it's important to get this, uh, your marketing plan, uh, completed for your '19 production, and then decide how many dollars you want to put at risk if you do, and, and look for different reownership strategies or selling calls or, or selling puts or whatever it might be. But first, get a good handle on your profit margin that is, is going to be offered to you, because I think you're going to get some of the, the better returns that you had a chance at during the summer. But the difference in the summer was nobody had any confident idea where their yields were at.

Now you're going to have a very good idea on that, and I think it's going to be very important for producers to take a rainy afternoon and figure that out and start to lay out a plan about what price levels it takes and then be ready to take advantage of that if that is offered.

Chris

Barron: You bet. Now that's great, great advice. That's, that's the name of the game, is figuring out where that margin opportunity is at and taking advantage of it for sure. One little disclaimer I want to throw out there too is just, you know, Dwayne, I know we've said this in a lot of podcasts, but I just want to remind all of our listeners that, you know, we don't have all the answers and, and We're definitely not trying to give advice this way or that way, or that we think you should do this or that, other than, you know, know your cost of production and figure out your, your individual stuff. That's all really good. But I think, you know, we want to just make sure we remind everybody that we're here to bring perspective. We're really not, you know, not giving any specific marketing advice.

And I think too, Dwayne, you know, you and I get on this call and we just start to have a conversation. We don't really preemptively have a strategic plan on how we're going to talk, what we're going to talk about, and exactly what we're going to lay out there. So any additional comments to that, Duane?

Duane

Lowry: No, I agree with everything you just said. There's a lot of things that can change. We don't know what is on there over the horizon. We don't know what kind of black swans are circling around us. All that's true, and all that's true all the time, every day, every year. So at the end of the day, you know, people have to make the decisions based on their own operations. But in this podcast setting, in this, this conversation, um, you know, we're just talking about areas and, and ideas and possibilities, but everybody has to make their own decisions.

Chris

Barron: That's right. So, well, um, I think we've covered quite a bit, Dwayne. Is there any last thing that I didn't ask about or bring up. I think we're pretty good here, right?

Duane

Lowry: I think so. One last thing I didn't mention, uh, worth mentioning, uh, South America has been on people's radar for dryness for quite a few weeks. I've kind of resisted talking about it very much because I think it's a little bit premature. There are some, uh, bean fields in South America that are being forced to be replanted because they lack moisture. They have improved moisture forecasts in the, in the second week of the forecast, but we've had improved forecasts down there before that have struggled to materialize. So that's something that's on the radar. Again, I'm a little uncomfortable talking about it too much because that feels too early to me to talk about it, but it is another thing that if the price action is constructive, people are going to reach back and use things like that for part of, part of the explanation. So I just wanted to make you aware of it.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, appreciate that. Yeah, we've been kind of hearing some of that, so that'll be something to watch, and probably going to be some volatility moving forward. And, and, uh, it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks as we try to get through harvest and get a little bit smarter on how these yields are shaking out and stuff too. So, well, Duane, thanks a lot for the conversation today, and I appreciate it, and we'll be back again this week if any anytime any additional exciting information comes up. Thanks a lot, Dwayne.

Duane

Lowry: Alright, thanks Chris.

Chris

Barron: You bet. And thanks everybody for listening to this episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we will catch you next time. Thanks a lot.

Narrator: Thanks again for listening everyone. If you would like to hear more content from Ag View Solutions, listen to our other podcasts podcasts such as Dad's Wisdom or our current Harvest Series. Ag View Solutions works as an integral part of operations like yours, side by side for farm profit management, business collaboration and structuring, facilitating industry-leading peer groups, and coaching and consulting tailored to your farm's unique needs. We know that no two farms are the same, and we are here to help make your farm be the best it can be. You can learn more at agviewsolutions.com Email us at agviewpitch@gmail.com or call Chris Barron at 319-533-5703. We really look forward to talking with you.