Sunday night market outlook: a new year

Narrator: The Ag View Pitch is created by Ag View Solutions to provide value to its clients and farmers like you. We'd like to welcome our new listeners today and encourage you to check out our other podcast on The Ag View Pitch, which can be found on Apple Podcasts, Anchor, and Podbean. You can also find us on Facebook at Ag View Solutions and online at agviewsolutions.com. Enjoy.

Chris

Barron: Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we're wrapping up the week from Christmas and heading into a new week as we head into a new year. And thank God we're wrapping up 2019. How's it going, Dwayne?

Duane: Well, good. Looking forward to a new year, and I'm sure everybody else is. I need to apologize. I— my voice is off a little bit. I got a sore throat. I— most people get that from viruses, and I assume I would have also, but I think I actually got it because I was talking too much. So somebody asked me questions and they had a look on their face that said they were interested in my answer. So, you know, it was all downhill from there.

Chris

Barron: That's weird. I guess I've never known you to talk too much.

Duane: Yeah, it's amazing I have any voice left at all, actually.

Chris

Barron: Yeah. Well, you know, I guess, you know, we kind of started out the conversation talking about, you know, just going into a new year, not only a new week, but we're going into a new year, right? And I think the biggest part of that is getting 2019 kicked out the door. Everybody's so sick of 2019, they can't stand it. And so as we head into 2020, I guess, and a new week— let's start with a new week first— not a lot of action because it's kind of a short week, but what do you see in the week ahead?

Duane: Well, first off, regarding '19, I suppose everybody has the same feelings. They're glad to see it over with. But there's a little bit of good things that have happened during the month of December. Prices have rebounded. We've got soybean oil at the highest levels it's been in a couple of years. We've got cash being bid to the farmers, is price in the pocket, so to speak, is the highest it's been in a year and a half, probably since June of '18. So we're at least leaving on a good note there. We've got cash corn bids with basis and futures combined that's probably on the upper end of any price that we've had in December, during the month of December over the last few years. So hopefully the, the end of '19 is pointing to something, you know, a little better in 2020. So let's at least look forward with a little bit of optimism based off of that. It's going to be a short week.

Even though we come back with the new year here, with the first being on Wednesday, markets closed and then back Thursday and Friday. You know, most people are going to look at the market not really starting the new year until the 6th. And that'll be, you know, the week of the USDA report. So next week will be another short week, prices showed some faltering in beans on Friday. So people are going to look at that and wonder what that means. But I think at this point, the main focus is going to be the USDA report on the 10th.

Chris

Barron: Okay, so assuming there's not, not too much going on, and we start thinking ahead a little bit, then as we, you know, go into that week of the 30th, as you said, this coming week now, What, what do you think that week of the 6th then? I mean, the, the report's not till the 10th, so it's on that Friday. Is there anything to be kind of watching for from a producer standpoint on, on marketing on any of these grains here between now and that report?

Duane: Well, I think the fact that the beans farmers are getting the best price for their physical beans that they would have had, you know, in a year and a half. I think that's noteworthy. And I think that farmers have sold a fair amount of that activity in the last couple of weeks. Part of it's been driven by price, part of it's been driven by year-end, you know, squaring of books, trying to get themselves in the right position financially that they want to be in terms of cash flow. And I think another part of the selling activity that's been found in the the cash markets in the beans has been driven by the lender, trying to move inventory off books and turn it into cash. And I think the pressure has been maybe a little more intense to do that this year than it's been in other years, or at least in other recent years.

And I think that the farmer is justified in looking at these prices in beans and coming to a conclusion that maybe ought to sell some. I'm not really here to, to talk against that. I mean, it's difficult to talk against it when it's the best price you've had in a year and a half. I think it depends whether that's a good sale or not depends on two things. One thing is known, and that would be your own operations yield. If this price and your own operations yield turns in a profit that you've been desiring for the last year and a half, two years, and you couldn't get, then that makes it a sale that, you know, you have to stand up and pay attention to it. If your operation happened to have yields where this price maybe still doesn't work out, then I think you take the perspective of saying, hey, this is still early in the marketing year, lots can happen.

There's a certain amount of risk because the market has had a nice rally here. So you could give some of that up if USDA gave us some negative surprises. But the market has absorbed quite a bit of negative, negative sentiment to get to these lofty levels. The market has also absorbed a fairly optimistic or favorable outlook to South American production to get to these levels. So the market is looking— I get the sense, in my opinion, that the price action is looking past some of the known negative fundamentals that we've had. But I think trader sentiment is still quick to be bearish if they're not bearish, and the large funds are still short. So I think that if, if the producer opts to take along a little more risk and hang on to this crop, I think I can understand why that is. I think it's possible that we'll have some better prices ahead.

But a lot's going to depend on what the report is on the 10th. So in terms of getting back to your original question about how does a producer react, You know, I think it's going to depend on everybody's operation. But give a serious look over at these prices because they are some of the best cash prices you've had in a year and a half and see if maybe you want to take some risk off the table. Corn maybe is a different story. But in the case of beans, that would be the answer that I would give. I'm not trying to talk out of both sides of my mouth. I'm just trying to say that it doesn't matter if I happen to think prices have more upside to go over the next few months or not. A lot— the most important thing is how does this price dollar up with your yield on your operation?

Chris

Barron: Right. Is there something that, you know, those producers that aren't at the margin objective that they need, you know, if the price level is just not there yet, knowing that we've had a decent rally here in beans, specifically, is there anything, any tools or anything they should be considering to do if they're not willing to sell, but to protect that potential downside risk then in the event that happens, if they're hoping or waiting for a better price, there's a lot of risk out there. Is there anything they should be doing or could be doing to protect that downside risk?

Duane: Well, if they're looking to protect downside risk and still have upside potential, about their only choice is to be buying some puts.. And if you've got the physical inventory and you're buying the puts and the market does go down, basis probably will continue to tighten even though they are, they are at very good levels right now. Spreads still have enough carry. I mean, we got, we're in Iowa here and Cedar Rapids was roughly 10 under the Jan. Well, that's, that's almost 50 under the July. And you would think that given the basis that we've had, given the S&Ds that we think we know, you would think that this basis levels will continue to tighten and the basis itself will pay your cost of interest to carry it. And so even at, you know, 10 under the Jan being good, it's still equates to almost 50 under the July.

And, and I think at that type of level, I think the producer probably still has reasons to hang on to it. If he's only looking to try to capture some basis improvement from here, he could sell July futures. But I'm guessing that's not accomplishing what the person's going to want to do if they're actually looking for higher prices. And it depends on— so getting back to your question is basically they can buy a put if they're seeking that type of downside risk. So I guess that would be the— that's the only way you can kind of have your cake and eat it too.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, and, and to your point earlier on basis, I talked to a grower in Ohio yesterday. Basis there, you know, $25 to $30 over on soybeans, and then you go, you know, north, get up North Dakota, you know, in different areas. I mean, it's easy to find you know, 50 cents the other way. So there's a 75-cent difference in basis from one area to another. You apply that to the equation depending on your land cost and all those other equate pieces of the equation, like you said, yield and everything for the individual and where their profit or their margin target needs to be. It really is different from, from one part of the country to the next for sure. On corn, let's Or did you have another comment on that?

Duane: No, I was just going to agree with that.

Chris

Barron: Yeah. On corn, let's talk about corn for a minute. What's your thought there? I mean, as we enter this week, but also going into, you know, into this report, same kind of question for corn. You know, there's a lot of, a lot of growers that sold stuff, you know, for either tax reasons or storage or quality or whatever and moved grain. But, you know, on the corn side of things, this remaining inventory that is going to have to turn into cash flow probably by that, you know, early part of March timeframe for a lot of these growers when land rents and equipment payments and all these other fun things that we have to pay for along the way and, you know, and line of credit notes and all this stuff. Where do you see some opportunities moving forward on corn and what should we be thinking about there?

Duane: Well, basis levels are good in most all locations, and the places in the east are, you know, very good, you know, $40 over, maybe more. In the center part of the Midwest here in Iowa, you know, we might be looking at, you know, $10 under, something like that. And the basis theme has been firm all along. I right now I can't quite see a scenario where that basis doesn't stay firm and at least through the next few months. Once we get, you know, into the July window, maybe that's not the case. It'll depend on other factors. But for a while, I think the basis stays firm. I think the spreads are going to have to firm quite a bit. And even though you've got like March now at $3.90 and you got Dec '20 at $4.03, that's only 13 cents.

But if the corn market tightens up for any reason, and I'm going to list off a few of those in a little bit, if the corn market tightens up on that carryout idea, then these spreads could go to quite a big inverse. You could have the old crop months quite a bit higher than the new crop as new crop is looking forward to more acres, the optimism of a new crop thinking You know, now we got to be talking about 176, 177, maybe 180. Who knows what kind of numbers people will throw out there for 2020 possibilities. And so any negativity will probably be associated with 2020. Any bullishness will be associated upfront. So I think spreads are— could do something fairly dramatic, possibility. As far as producers, looking to make sales again, I think it matters whether— does it dollar up? These are better prices than they've had in December at the farm gate than for quite a while.

And so it's attractive, but I would argue most people listening to this podcast probably had yields below last year, and many of them by a quantity much larger than what USDA's current projections suggest. And so they're having a difficult time getting these dollars, or getting this, these prices to match a final, uh, total dollars because they don't have enough bushels. And they're, they're have, they're wondering if they're going to get a chance or not. And, um, you know, we don't know. Uh, the next piece of knowledge we get will be from USDA on January 10th. Um, but I think the producers are caught in a situation where They have to continue to assume some risk here. And it's hard to get away from that risk unless they're just willing to throw in the towel. And I argue we're just too early in the marketing season to feel like you should be compelled to, to throw in the towel.

If USDA came out with something negative on corn on June 10th, the market, futures market would get a reaction to it. I don't think anything USDA says or puts on paper on January 10th is going to have any implication to basis. And so if you're sitting on that physical commodity and USDA delivers some negative news, maybe the futures market takes a hit. And how do I define a hit? Maybe it would be 10 cents, maybe it'd be 20. Do I think that happens? No. But if I throw it out there as a possibility, I think in that environment the cash market's going to tighten up more They're, they're not going to be less motivated to try to get inventory, just because USDA said something negative. And so I think the amount that the basis could improve, you know, 2 weeks after you suffered that bearish report, I think would largely cover what your risk is going through this report.

So I'm inclined to think that for a farmer and a producer that basically is in a constant state of risk, seems to me that he's going to probably opt to continue to assume the same risk that he has right now by not having a price. And I think that's how most people are probably going to go through this report on the 10th.

Chris

Barron: Dwayne, question for you. So like, looking at March, you know, going into the— to this new week, and we're starting at a number for March corn at that $3.90 zone. That's, for a lot of our clients, is still about 20 to 25 cents away from the desirable margin target that many folks we work with have put in place for that old crop, that '19 crop. I mean, I know you don't have a crystal ball, but you know, how much risk do you think we're taking to try to get there? You know, at what point are we pulling the trigger? Is that too far of a reach or is that not that tough of a reach? Just to put some real numbers on it from, from the client side that I work with.

Duane: Well, I'm not sure how much risk you're taking to try to hold out to get to that level that works that you described as being $0.20, $0.25 higher from here. But I would argue that for being this early in the marketing season, having quite a bit of unknowns in front of us, and having price action that's better than people expected. For most of the harvest season that we would be here where we are at, I think basis is better than a lot of people feared it might be. And I think we have enough demand in the physical market that our basis structure is going to continue to stay firm. And it would— that would be especially true if the futures softened up any because of a USDA report. I think that the producer's risk— he's always got risk, and he's always got risk through any report.

But I think you've got enough room for basis to improve even after a negative report that I think your risk is manageable, you know, for people that they're in this risk environment every single day, and this is not an uncommon place for them to be. I would say that this report at this level, I would classify it as, as manageable. As far as your targets go, you know, is there a chance to get corn 20, 25 cents higher here? I would say there's an excellent chance of that. I would say it's very plausible. I don't think it's asking for pie in the sky. I think it's reasonable. And, you know, we can go into reasons why I think it is. But as far as I'm concerned, The world looks one way today. January 10th is going to come, and it's possible it can look significantly different after we get that report. And, you know, whenever you want to, I'd like to kind of talk about that a little bit.

Chris

Barron: That might be a good podcast for next week. And just to let the listeners know, and I know you and I have talked about this, Duane, but, you know, you know, we've been doing the Sunday, you know, the week ahead, but we get to in front of that, that the 10th report, and then that following week it might be an everyday thing for a day or two, one way or the other too, just to work through what's going on.

Duane: Well, let's just touch on a few of these possibilities and what-if scenarios. It's important to put out that we know there was a lot of confusion, or, you know, doubt about how the 2019 numbers shook through, shook out from acreage and yield. There's a lot of questions. In the same token, marketplace has either stopped thinking about those discrepancies between what was expected and what was received. And they have accepted the fact that whatever USDA puts out there is what it is. And that's exactly correct. And that's what we have to do. And that's what we will have to do every time in the future. In the same token, the numbers are what USDA puts out. But in USDA's, you know, wisdom, they have a report every month. So every month, they're putting out something different. And for this January report, they did something unprecedented.

They sent out the largest surveys for resurveys in December that they've ever sent out. And they asked for acres, uh, harvested acres, and they asked for, uh, yield. And, you know, you have to ask yourself, why are they doing that? They are either doing it because they are uncertain about their own numbers, or they're doing it to add a level of credibility to their existing numbers. Either way, there's some level of doubt there, either self-doubt on their part or doubt in the rest of the marketplace that they feel that they must address.

I also think it's important to recognize that in November, October, September, and August, they had 4 opportunities to identify production, and the amount that they changed that in all those 4 months was very little, and they didn't offer an indication about what that meant, and, and I'm reading something into it, into it that maybe I shouldn't read into it, but I'm inclined to wonder at least how much they didn't make a change because they didn't know, and they didn't feel like they had the information. The crops were very late, you know, we still got people harvesting corn on the, on Christmas. We still got a lot of acres in, in the field, and some of those probably won't see a combine until spring. So clearly we're late, and everything was late in development.

And I wonder how much of this is a situation where the, the fact that they're reserving that survey, and this opens up the door that we have to be prepared that we could get, you know, a surprisingly different number. And at that point in time, the fair question to ask is, well, couldn't the, couldn't the crop be up? Couldn't they have more acres? Couldn't they have a bigger yield? Anything's possible, and I wouldn't want to rule anything out. But based on my conversations with a large number of farmers with a large footprint across the Midwest, it doesn't seem to me that we should be expecting acres to go up. Or excuse me, expecting yields to go up. And so I think there's opportunities for something completely different. And yet the marketplace acts like they're not going to get anything different. That's, that's where the sentiment's at.

That's why the, the spec community is short corn, why the spec community is short beans. We've got a US-China trade deal. Nobody seems to really care about that. Nobody embraces that. And the market's not long, and I find that interesting. And just to put in perspective, in USDA's last production, or last S&D report, they have corn carryout at 1.9 billion. Well, if we lower harvested acres by 3 million acres, that's 500 million bushels. That's a quarter of your carryout. And lowering the harvested acres by 3 million acres for a large portion of the August, September, October timeframe, that was a common thing to be heard in the community of number crunchers that look this data over and come up with reasonable numbers. This 2 to 3 million acres of, uh, lower harvested acres at that time was considered reasonable and plausible.

As we've gotten into harvest and we've got more acres sitting in the field today than would have been expected. I think that makes that, you know, reasonable figure. If they were to lower 3 bushels an acre, which during the August, September, October time frame this was not an uncommon expectation, that's 245 million. Those two things amount to 750 million bushels when you got 1.9 million carryout. The other thing that's got to be thrown in here is people are trying to decide whether they believe China will live up to Phase 1 or whether they'll do anything about it. But the number that's kicked out as a possibility is somewhere in that 8 to 10 million metric tons of corn that China might buy from the US in this first year of Phase 1. So far, that's not gotten traction in the marketplace.

But I just want to point out, That's, uh, somewhere between, you know, 300 and 400 million bushels, let's say. So I've just given you 3 things that easily cuts the carryout in half, and I think it's also important to point out is that current balance sheet that gives us a billion 9 carryout has got demand in it, um, that is in— if you look at it in relationship to the last couple of years, the demand is down in the current balance sheet is down 559 million bushels from last year. And it's down 883 million from the year before that. So if people want to say, yeah, but we don't have demand, demand's awful, things of this nature. Well, I'm just telling you that balance sheet has already got awful built into it. And if you look at the ethanol numbers that have been coming out weekly, the ethanol industry seems to be doing pretty well.

And I don't know how, if they're going to be able to maintain that or not, but they seem to be, you know, setting some records and setting some numbers that are pretty high for this time of year. So I think that's encouraging. I don't think anybody out there thinks there are fewer hogs or cattle to feed. So I don't think anybody's thinking the feed demand should be lowered. And so we're dealing with the balance sheet built in right now that is off, has got demand off 500 to 800 million bushels from the last 2 years worth of demand. I'm not so sure that with Phase 1 being done, the possibility of China buying some corn, I'm not so sure that balance sheet is going to prove to be correct. And so there are a lot of different ways that the world could look a lot different on January 11th than it does here in late December.

And I don't see the marketplace giving anything that I've just described any level of respect or interest. And I can't tell whether that's because everybody's discouraged, depressed, and disgusted, or whether they think that what I've just described is unreasonable, ridiculous numbers. And I would argue with anybody that what I've just offered up here is extremely plausible, and, and I would say in this business, an extremely conservative, um, thought to ponder. Maybe USDA will come out here January 10th and completely obliterate everything I've just said, but it, it seems plausible. And anecdotally, based on reports and comments I've heard from producers I think it, it becomes, you know, even another level of plausible. There's been a lot of people describe 2019 corn yields as being better than expected. I would say that's a fair statement.

Not a general statement everywhere, but I think it's a fair statement if you wanted to summarize it in one sentence. The problem is the trade the farmer had expected and feared numbers that were far below USDA. So now we end up with numbers better than expected, but when they come in and they're still 10 to 15, 15 to 25, 25 to 40 bushels below last year, all those ranges are typical things that I hear from people. Um, all of a sudden that doesn't equate to anything like the, you know, 8 bushels below last year is what USDA has plugged in. So it's still possible to be better than people expected and still end up with a number nationally that's less than what we've been currently projected. And the fact that USDA hardly changed their numbers for 4 months in there, that seems to me to open up a door of a reasonable discernment to at least question Maybe they're not making a stance.

Maybe they don't feel like they've got information to make a change and they're just on hold. And the fact that they then follow that up with a resurvey that they've never done to this magnitude in December, it adds another level of plausibility to, to what I'm describing. And these numbers that I've thrown out here are not unreasonable, strange numbers. They are reasoned thinking conservative numbers. So there, shoot some holes in that.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, well, I think, I think you lay out the opportunity for a lot of optimism, which I hope, you know, we see that, you know, the only concern I have, and you said it, was if the, you know, USDA comes in and throws a great big rock on top of all that with, you know, some kind of a big surprise on the negative side of things here with yields, or, you know, with some of their quote unquote final numbers, or at least their January numbers, which, to your point, a lot of that's farmer survey. So it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. Because I think a lot of things you're saying, I think, are hard to argue against. It's just like you said, too, though, I think there's just so much negativity out there with the with the trade and the funds and all that, that it's just going to be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

But I think, you know, hopefulness, I guess, as a producer myself and with the growers we work with, you know, and not quite being to where we need to because the yields weren't quite to the levels they were the last couple of years. We yielded ourselves out of a, out of a potential problem, whereas this year we had sufficient yields in a lot of, a lot of cases, and in a lot of cases we didn't plant anything. And so what was planted, the price objectives a little higher than what we, we probably had to have last year. So it's going to be a reach, but hopefully we can get there. So any other comments? I appreciate all of that.

I mean, I think we're going to have a lot more to chew on, a lot more to talk about as we get into the next couple of weeks, and particularly, you, you know, as we get to that report and, you know, dissect that and see what that means and try to come up with a game plan. Any final thoughts? Or we can kind of wrap this one up, put a bow on it for this week.

Duane: Well, I don't know, we haven't talked about beans in this level. And we're not going to get into this type of a level on beans. Number one, who knows what USDA is going to give us for production. I have no feel where we're going to be at there, and I'm not going to throw it out there, but I will throw out the fact that carryout in beans, it, uh, if you take it at face value, is about 475 million bushels, give or take. That's roughly half of what it was a year ago. And if we're going to get, um, um, if we're going to keep carryout unchanged for next year, we got to have about 5 million more corn or soybean acres. And all of these balance sheets from USDA have, have to at least, we have to at least consider what does Phase 1 do to this? Does that change it at all? Or does it not? And I think we're going to get a voice from USDA on that, probably even in January.

So it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. But the markets, the cash markets point to a tighter market than we normally have. And the fact that you got areas in the East bidding $40 or $50 over for corn at the end of December seems to me to suggest something different, especially since it's happened all the way through, through the summer. And so this January 10th report has the potential of being a big deal. I think the corn is the most important part because I think the corn report is the one that's going to tell us whether or not there's an acreage battle at all for 2020. And that's going to be the underlying theme that if that develops, that's the thing that, that puts some legs under some optimism. I don't know if we can get to an acreage battle scenario or not. But we cannot get to an acreage battle scenario without corn being a part of that discussion.

So if you're pinning some hopes on the market having that acreage battle storyline, of which I would probably be in that camp, then you can't have a neutral or, or bearish corn report, you have to have something supportive out of that corn that puts the carryout levels down far enough that you can have the expected increase in corn acres for 2020 and still have soybeans trying to scramble to get their share. And like I've said out, pointed out multiple times before in podcasts and my written commentary, if you have a corn market that decides it needs to rally. The beans have a lot of catch-up to do even though they've performed well so far to date, say for the last, you know, 30 days. So January 10th is a big deal. Don't underestimate it. You always have to look at these January reports with respect for volatility.

And you always have to give respect for the opposite of what you're expecting. But, uh, this has the potential of being a significant, uh, influence on how the market thinks for the rest of 2020. And, um, this is going to be a year where people really need to stay on top of things because if we happen to get a bullish reaction from January 10th report, and if some of these things I've laid out starts to unfold The marketplace is going to scramble in a, in a fast fashion because the marketplace is caught out of position. They are not long now. They did not come out of harvest long inventory, and the specs are large shorts. If that happens, it moves quickly. That also means that pricing opportunities for both '19 production and '20 production might be— this could be a year that these best selling opportunities occur early in the year and earlier than what is normal.

And I'll let— we'll talk about that on another, another day about, about what is normal and what that might look like. But I'm just saying this is going to be a year where you're going to have to really have a good game plan set forth. Know your costs, set up your margin targets. And be willing to institute a game plan, even if it's early in the year, even if we get an optimistic report in January, we get prices to improve. This is probably not going to be a year that you're going to want to wait till the end of the year to do the pricing. So that's the teaser for our next podcast.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, I was gonna say, we'll get into the 2020 conversation as we get closer to that report. Because as you said, I think that's gonna going to tie in a lot to the decisions on the '19. It's probably going to be a multi-year sales opportunity if we get that positive move. Hopefully that, that would be nice to see, kind of give everybody a new year boost on the front end would be great. So hey, Dwayne, I think, I think we kind of got things wrapped up for today unless there was any last thing that I didn't ask or you didn't get out.

Duane: I was hoping you would ask that question. There's one last thing.

Chris

Barron: Okay.

Duane: And I've talked about it.

Chris

Barron: I didn't know if your voice was still getting— so if it was sore enough yet or if it was still going, so I figured I'd ask.

Duane: I'll pay for it later in the day or tonight or tomorrow, but for right now we'll try to survive. One last thing. I brought it up before, and if you read my daily commentary, you see it on a regular basis. The US dollar is poised for some weakening. And that's been the case for multiple months. And the US dollar had one of the lowest price values it traded at on the dollar index here late this last week. And I think that that is worth pointing out. I've also pointed out before in other podcasts and written that the Fed seems to have a strong desire for inflation, and they are sending the signals. That they are not looking to raise rates in 2020.

Those two combinations, if they gain some momentum and traction and it's expressed through a weaker dollar, that can change an underlying fundamental and a background piece of— piece to the puzzle here that also is not getting much attention yet, but it is quietly unfolding in that manner. And I think that We, we all need to pay attention to what that dollar is doing and what inflation is doing. Because the answers to those two questions oftentimes can drive large investor sentiment. And there could be a shift away from something else and into something that's going to benefit off of an inflation and weaker dollar. And agricultural commodities is always near the top of that list. So— that needs to be watched closely too.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, that's a great comment. I appreciate that because that's, that's something sometimes that as producers I think we're watching the markets and sometimes there's a bunch of outside stuff going on that we need to kind of be paying attention to at the same time. So that's why we rely on you to remind us of some of those things.

Duane: Well, as long as you keep asking. Is there anything else? Do you have one last thing?

Chris

Barron: I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna ask anything else.

Duane: No, you probably shouldn't ask that again, but that, that, as long as you ask that, odds are there'll be something.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, yeah. Well, appreciate the conversation, Duane. I think, you know, this is a good way to wrap up the year. You know, it was a challenging one. It was one that I think people really, really had to put their nose to the grindstone and really think about stuff and, and just tolerate a lot of major issues and difficult challenges. But I've always said that, you know, when things are easy, that doesn't make us better business people. But when we have a challenge, whether it's the weather or the markets or production or whatever it is in our business, and we deal with it and we figure out how to manage it, it makes us better business people. And I think that's really, really what this is all about, you know, is having you give us good information and making sure that we have good perspective.

Is what we're trying to do with the podcast is have that good perspective out there for everybody and, and make sure that if you have any questions or things you'd like us to talk about, or bring up, either in this podcast on the marketing side or Dad's Wisdom or any of the other podcasts that we do, we're starting a lender series now too, and going to have some conversations with some lenders as well. So keep tuned, keep in tune for that. Thanks a lot, Duane, for your comments today, and we look forward to visiting with you next week and as we get closer to this report.

Duane: All right, thanks, Chris.

Chris

Barron: You bet, and thanks everybody for listening, and we look forward to a new year. Happy New Year, everybody, and we will catch you again next time on the Ag View Pitch.

Narrator: Thanks again for listening, everyone. If you would like to hear more content from Ag View Solutions, listen to our other podcasts such as Dad's Wisdom or our current Harvest Series. Ag View Solutions works as an integral part of operations like yours, side by side for farm profit management, business collaboration and structuring, facilitating industry-leading peer groups, and coaching and consulting tailored to your farm's unique needs. We know that no two farms are the same, and we are here to help make your farm be the best it can be. You can learn more at agviewsolutions.com, email us at agviewpitch@gmail.com, or call Chris Barron at 319-533-5703. We really look forward to talking with you.