Sunday night market outlook for the week of November 3rd

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Chris

Barron: Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch, and today you've got Chris Barron and Dwayne Lowery with you, and we're heading into a new week again. Uh, Dwayne, how's it going? It sounds like you've been out in the cornfield here the last few days running a grain cart. How's that going for you?

Duane

Lowery: It's been good. It's been a lot of fun, so I've enjoyed doing that, and You know, sometimes a little humbling, but all in all, it's been a good weekend.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, well, you learn real quick when you run the grain cart, you don't know as much as the combine operator probably too. So, not how that goes.

Duane

Lowery: I probably learned that I don't know as much as hardly anybody.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, well, I'm just a lonely old dryer operator. So I spend the majority of my time at the dryer. So anyway, well, I think that kind of explains what we've been up to here and have also been watching the markets and And, you know, corn was, was finished up the week on Dec corn somewhere in that $3.89 range and stuff. And talk a little bit about corn, how we closed last week and where we might be going on a new week.

Duane

Lowery: Well, last week followed up some weakness before that. So we've been experiencing some corrective activity over the last couple of weeks, probably. And when we enter the week after having a break the previous week, the market did a good job of stabilizing after some early weakness, did a good job of not finding a lot of downside energy or follow-through selling interest. And there's probably at least a couple of days this past week where the market rejected weakness and, you know, basically consolidated. At the end of the week, we finished up a few cents in corn. Reversal up action for the week in corn, wheat, and soybeans as far as that is concerned. But I would say the price action of corn was stabilizing, it was very respectful of support levels. And looking ahead to this week, I think the market has absorbed the corrective energy from the technical base corrective process.

I don't think we're going to take out last week's lows based on short-term corrective activity. I think that process is largely over. The market also absorbed some higher private forecaster projection estimates for this coming Friday's USDA corn and soybean production estimates. I don't necessarily agree with the direction that those privates raised the yield estimates, but it is something that the market did have to absorb, and to receive those type of yield projections and still finish the week higher I thought was constructive. Looking ahead to Friday we got the USDA report. That's going to probably be the biggest fundamental input that we have.

So I think that from a technical basis, I personally feel from a fundamental perspective the market will be well supported at levels above last week's lows and we'll probably see some firming price action into Friday's report would be my general thought.

Chris

Barron: Any harvest activity news that, that's having any kind of effect? Or is it really going to be the upcoming report and the always conversation of demand discussion?

Duane

Lowery: Well, I think around harvest discussions and activity, one, I think the harvest is moving slower than people anticipate. So harvest progress is going to maintain a slow pace. We have at minimum some level of regional shortages of LP gas. In many cases, that's causing people to shut down operations because they don't have fuel to dry. I don't know how long that's going to last, but it looks like it could last at least a week, if not longer. So that's a factor. You have the cash buyers uncomfortable, they're not buying as much as they need. They're put— they're paying some premiums for spot bids, weekend shipment, the moisture discount that they've had to reduce those discounts for moisture. That might be found in some locations, other places that's gone away. But they're still having a difficult time buying bushels.

And I think they're very concerned that once it gets put away, it's going to be very difficult to get it. Until after the first of the year. And I would say the cash buyers, whether they're livestock feeder or an elevator, I think they've all bought less than they hoped to have bought. And I think they're becoming concerned they're not going to get it bought during the harvest season. So I think that's a factor. Otherwise, weather disruptions look like they're going to be, you know, maybe more frequent than we'd like, but they don't look to be real problematic. So, but harvest in general is, is slow. And I think there is, you know, concerns associated with that. And everything is very late. It's not going to give a lot of opportunity for fieldwork activity, I would imagine.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, you mentioned the LP specifically. I know firsthand, there's a ton of potential delays there, just from the simple fact that, you know, if you can't dry it, you know, what do you do? I mean, you're probably going to sit in a lot of cases. And wait. And we had a, we had a truck in Iowa City, and I talked to you offline about it, Duane, but it, that sat and waited for, um, to get loaded for 9.5 hours. And, you know, and they're limiting growers and, and even shutting quite a few off. So that's definitely going to, going to be a big hit. And from talking to our energy supply company, it sounded like they had they had concerns that it could last for quite a while yet based on what they were hearing from their suppliers.

Duane

Lowery: Yeah, it's not a, not a good situation, but there's not many choices of what you can do, right?

Chris

Barron: What about, um, on the, on the soybean side of things? Obviously there's still a lot of soybean harvest going on, and we can start out on, you know, the strength, um, you know, and maybe talk a little bit about where the strength ended up the week on soybeans and, you know, where, where are we heading there, do you think?

Duane

Lowery: And well, the soybean market also started with some corrective weakness early in the week, kind of a spillover from the previous week. I think the short-term technicals provided support. I think the corrective process is probably over. It wasn't a very deep correction by many standards of measurement, but The market has not been giving much for correctives, deep correction since early September. And I think it still fits the pattern. And I'm comfortable to say that I think that technical selling pressures are largely over from that corrective wing of the marketplace. Fundamentally, you know, that harvest is still progressing very slowly. I think that there's a consistent theme that people are below last year's, and the amount of people that in fields that are equal or above last year are very limited.

And I think there's a general theme that we're, you know, 10-15% below last year. And as you approach the final parts of the harvest season, I can't help but think that yield ideas are going to continue to ratchet lower. And that seems to me to be a fairly consistent theme. If that is true, and if USDA lowers production estimates here this coming Friday, the carryout levels are going to continue to ratchet lower. And it's not, at least personally, it's not difficult for me to, to build a case that we're dealing with a sub-200 million carryout in beans. If that marketplace ever believed that, you know, we'd find ourselves too cheap, at least in the front end in the old crop months. The other factors that are going on in beans is basis levels have been firm. There's been some premiums for spot shipment.

You got China trade negotiations with the US seem to be going well, seem to be advancing more than just this phase one that involves agriculture. And so I think there's going to be more confidence in that situation being resolved. How fast they buy U.S. products, the quantity they buy over the next year, I'm not sure. But when it is a good deal, when you look beyond, and that to me implies a general improving demand outlook for the months, if not the years ahead, it is reasonable to believe that they've already made some commitments for South American supplies that might make it difficult for them to ramp up a lot of U.S. purchases. That being said, I also am one that believes this trade agreement is coming together, partly because they actually need our agricultural products. So I'm a little more optimistic than most are regarding Chinese demand in the months ahead.

But that doesn't mean it has to all take place immediately. But I think overall, what's happening there is very, very constructive. And so if the market has had its technical correction, if that statement is true, We're advancing harvest to the point that, you know, farmer sales will probably back off some. And once that crop is put away, I think that's going to become difficult to get that bought. So you have a situation where cash bean basis can firm some more, that spreads that can tighten quite a bit versus new crop 2020 soybean futures. And that combination will be accelerated if USDA confirms what seems to me to be a theme in the country that USDA might be well overstating the 2019 soybean crop national average.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, I was just going to ask you, do you have any predictions or any thoughts on, on the report from, from the yield perspective on the soybeans? And while we're on the report, you can hit corn too.

Duane

Lowery: Well, I don't know if I have any personal, you know, confidence in a strong rationale for a particular yield. But I don't think they're down enough. I happen to be one that probably believes USDA's current estimate, 168.4. It wouldn't be hard for me to see that number ultimately be under 165. I think that would take a combination of a loss of, uh, harvested acres and a yield reduction. And, uh, if somebody wanted to say it could be quite a bit lower than that, I really wouldn't want to argue that. In the case of the beans, USDA currently has it projected at, um, um, 46.9. That's only down, uh, 3.7 bushels from last year's production. And I have talked to so many producers in so many different regions of the country that fall so many bushels, many more bushels than that below last year, that I think that number needs to be adjusted lower.

And I don't know what they're going to do, end up ultimately doing with harvested acres, but the yield number just seems like it's a few bushels too high to me. And if that happened to be the case, you know, that, that, that doesn't take much to get to the point where you— the marketplace will be worried about a sub-200 million bean crop. That would be a big shock to the marketplace if USDA confirms something like that. And I would also say if USDA comes in here and gives us lower numbers —by more than what the marketplace is expecting, they're also going to come in and expect, you know, December and January to be reduced as well. On the other hand, if they come in and produce the same or higher numbers, it's going to be difficult to believe, but that's what we'll have to, have to live with. So we'll have to see how that goes.

The last thing I want to say about yields is And this is probably more evident in the case of corn. It's not necessarily something you hear frequently on the narrative on beans from the producer side. But in the case of corn, I hear a lot of people making comments. Well, it's better than we expected. You know, this crop do— corn crop did better than we thought. And I think that's an accurate statement in many places. But also, if you drill down into that same conversation, and say, well, how did you do versus last year? And they'll say, well, we're better than expected, but we're still 10 or 15 bushels below last year, and, uh, in some cases maybe more than that. So I think the difference is the expectations were quite low, and so we did better than that.

But when you go to compare it to last year, there is still a broad amount of acres, a large percentage of acres, even in most— you know, footprints across the country that are coming in less than last year. And it's not at all uncommon to see, you know, 10 or 15 bushels less than last year. And when you get into areas in the East, it's significantly more than that being falling below last year. Then when you talk to the guys that have yields that are similar to last year, in a few cases, it's better than last year.

You know, that ends up being a smaller footprint, and it also ends up being statements about certain fields that they don't— they're not statements about entire operations, because most operations are not done, and most operations are looking at their latest planted acres yet to harvest, and they've already noticed some decline as, as their planting dates have progressed, uh, later. So I think that by the time we're all said and done, you know, you're going to have very few operations anywhere in the country that are running better than last year. They're going to— you will find them, but on the scope of national production, it will be a quite small percentage, I think, versus the amount of acres that are going to fall, you know, 10 or more bushels below last year. To me, both of these estimates are still too high. And I think I'm expecting USDA to adjust them lower.

And I'm expecting USDA to be a little more aggressive and confident in what they put out versus last month, when as far as I'm concerned, all they did was punt, they did not really address the issue, they just left it as status quo. And I think that part will be different this, this Friday.

Chris

Barron: Well, then as slow as the pace has been going, it, it might be well past the January report before you really know, you know, normally you have that final information and probably won't even get that this year, will we?

Duane

Lowery: I mean— Well, they'll, they'll throw something out there and you're correct that we are harvesting slow, but I got to believe that we've got enough plots done and enough we've seen enough that we're going to get a more proactive attempt to— by USDA to project this crop than we did the last month. And so consequently, you know, I'm expecting maybe a bigger adjustment than most are.

Chris

Barron: As far as for the farmer, for the producer that's out there, that's got, say, you know, let's say they're whether they're doing soybeans or corn or whatever, looking at storage space, we talked about this real early, even before harvest, you know, what's your thoughts? You know, if it's a decision there, you know, they've got beans in storage that they could move and make space for the corn yet, or, you know, or store the, you know, store the corn, take the corn to the elevator. I mean, is there any advice on anything in particular with the report coming up and with the way basis is between corn and soybeans? That, or any thoughts that you have on, on things to be thinking about for producers as we chug through harvest here?

Duane

Lowery: Well, I have a lot of thoughts, and each and any one of them could be proven wrong by the time we get USDA's report. But let me put it to you this way. We've gone through a summer of very strong basis in corn, we've gone through a harvest, pre-harvest period, early harvest period with very sharp premiums being paid at significantly higher than normal basis levels. And now we're well into harvest. And we're still struggling to find weakness. And we're still finding spot premium bids at certain locations. So the cash market is still relatively tight. So unless USDA comes in and really, you know, knocks us away with a much larger crop than anticipated, I think corn and bean basis both are going to probably be firm. So when you're asking about, should he empty out the beans and store the corn?

Honestly, I think the best scenario here, given what my outlook is, I think owning the physical crop, both corn and beans, offer opportunities. I struggle to know which is the better opportunity. I really struggle with that. But at the present time, bean basis, bean spreads appear to me have to have more tightening capability and more of a premium for maintaining that physical commodity than possibly what corn does. A lot of that's going to depend on what we're really actually dealing with for a final crop size here. I'm hoping and expecting USDA to to move us much closer into, into the direction of understanding what this final crop is. But it seems to me that corn and beans, both of them maintaining physical ownership of the physical bushels, offers a lot of opportunity. So I would be very reluctant to let those go.

If you're forced to let them go because of space issues, I think whatever decision the farmer makes is going to probably be —based on his own logistical restrictions and whatever is most convenient to him. But right now, if I had to pick, and I was forced to sell some physical bushels, I didn't want to, but I was forced to do it, I probably would be— have a tendency to sell my physical corn and keep my physical beans, knowing that, you know, I don't really want to let go of either one of them.. But if I'm forced to do one or the other, I think that the corn offers a strong enough basis here that if I'm forced to sell one, I would pick corn.

Chris

Barron: Well, and that's another thing too, just another quick farmer question here. You know, let's say that the report does give us, you know, they lower a few bushels on corn or a couple bushels on corn and a little bit on beans, assuming they don't mess with something else on the balance sheet to not give us some price strength. But if we get some price strength on that report, is it— would it be prudent for, for producers to be making some sales on that along the way? You know, I mean, obviously every farm is different, and, and I preach that all the time, you know, because we gotta, we gotta know what our, our margins are, and we need to know what those profit, profit targets are.

But, you know, when you look at, at some strength in there, if that's meeting those objectives, what would be wrong with pulling the trigger on some of that stuff if we're hitting those targets and those objectives?

Duane

Lowery: Um, there's never anything wrong with taking a profit. The first thing I would caution is, um, whatever a guy has in mind for his price target that he thought he wanted— so let's just go back to last spring before we knew what the '19 growing season was like. That was based on a certain level yield of production. And this year, in many cases, the yields are less than what he was anticipating in the spring. In the case of corn, almost every producer's costs are higher than they were expected to be in the spring because everybody is forced to harvest more crops with, with a much higher moisture content. Than they expected before. And so their costs due to drying costs, etc., have gone up quite a bit. So the first thing that people need to do is, is try to get a good handle for what your own production is and what that cost is going to be.

So you know what good— what a good price is. Whatever you thought a good price might be in spring, it might calculate out different to you now that you get a better, better handle of what it is for your own operation. And then after that is done, I would say it's very important that producers look at the situation strictly from their own operation. Don't go by what I say or anybody else says is a good price or anything else. Look at it first from your own operation. You know, maybe we can help with finding different target levels or point out different resistance levels from technical conditions or whatever, but they're, they're first and foremost decision process lies in their own calculation of their own costs and what that profit is.

As far as making sales on, let's assume that we got a narrative that was a little supportive and production was down from moving lower from what USDA had recently, etc. And we do get a price response. There's nothing wrong with making sales. I happen to be one that thinks that You probably got 3 or 4 months here to take advantage of some strong basis, strong spreads, possible South American weather concerns out there, and a much lower supply of complete competing export sources for both corn and beans over the next 3 or 4 months. And so that provides a good opportunity So I think that we probably have a narrative that will allow prices to stay firm for, you know, well into the winter.

But that being said, as soon as those prices get to those targets that work for your operation, I think you have to remember that we have a backdrop that still probably will be seen as having adequate or plentiful supplies, even if they end up being less than what they think they are now. And, you know, you're probably not going to want to store the crop, you know, into next summer's growing season, you're probably thinking that the best marketing opportunities may come before new crop South American supplies hit the trade. So I think in general terms, right now, by the 1st of March, you're probably going to be making a lot of sales by that time. And at least that's how I would draw the window out right now.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, there could be a lot of quality concerns on the physical side of things too with this late harvested stuff that was, you know, it was planted late as well. One other thing too, just to back you up a little bit on your comment with, with the costs going up. We haven't seen a lot of these yet, and I would encourage both our clients and anybody who else who would want to reach out to us and have us either run some numbers with you or, and or give us some feedback on what you're seeing. But the drying cost numbers we've seen including additional trucking logistics and some, a little bit lower yield and a little bit lower test weight, which can be an issue when it does go to market. We're seeing cost of production increases in corn specifically range anywhere from about 20 to 40 cents.

So there's a definite, pretty much across the board, cost production increase that, to echo what you're saying, Dwayne, to be very cognizant of when you're looking at your marketing and where those price targets are. So good comments there, Dwayne, appreciate that. And just wanted to kind of back you up on the, on that cost production piece. I think it's real important. The last thing I wanted to touch on before we kind of wrap up is, is I know you and I had talked a little bit offline and we'll probably be doing a couple of follow-up podcasts specifically on some of the services that we provide and some of the things that we do collectively together and differently for you from the marketing side and us from the cost production and the management side of things. But Friday's USDA baseline projections report, can you touch on that a little bit?

Tell us what that is and what that might lead to.

Duane

Lowery: Well, first of all, USDA every year comes out with baseline projections going out 10 years. Normally that full report is released at a meeting that takes place in Washington, D.C., a 2-day meeting if I remember correctly, and they project for 10 years what things will look like for acreage, supply, demand, et cetera, carryout, and then they offer some price projection. All of that is strictly a baseline. You can't, you know, take it to the bank and say, well, this is what it's going to be. But it gives you a concept of what they're looking at. And it doesn't factor in, you know, one year's weather scenario versus another. So, you know, there are certain things that, you know, are just not known. For the most part, the marketplace doesn't put a lot of stock in these numbers, but yet they usually get some level of respect or interest.

I don't think the market really reacted to this hardly at all on Friday. But the thing that I thought is worth a reminder is we're dealing with a situation after 2019's weather, where we got reduced yields, we can argue about how much, but there's something below last year. And we had a lot of adversity this year. But whether you recognize the adversity that we had, and depending on how much the yields actually are down from last year, I think by most standards, what we're getting for production numbers are still better than what we would have thought may have been the worst-case scenarios in late June or mid-July or whatever. And to some extent, I think that speaks volumes about the seed genetics. It speaks volumes about farming practices and the ability to put all that together and to be able to handle a lot of different adversities and still come up with, you know, good production.

And if that's the case, when— if a year like 2019, we get a reduction, but it's not as big as we feared, the marketplace is going to look at it every year from here forward. And that threshold of getting a market reaction based on crop concerns is going to be higher and higher, and more difficult to get the price rallies. And then when you look at the USDA baseline, They have corn yield this year at 168.4, which they still can adjust multiple times before we're done. But next year they have the yield projected at 178.5, the next year 180.5, the following year at 182.5, and the next year 184.5. So they're basically going up 2 bushels an acre each year. And if you compare that with exports, which they have projected for the next several years, to be quite stagnant, you know, hardly 100 million bushels difference in any of those years.

You know, your ending stocks end up going up, you know, they got them 800, 900 million bushels higher than what they have projected to be this year. And then they have a price per bushel that this year they have it at $3.80. This is— these are supposed to be farm price levels. But then after that, it stagnates out at $3.40, $3.40. Well, $3.40 has been on the bottom side of our recent years. So what, what I think is important for the producers to understand is there are— there is a fundamental storyline that tells us to be aware and be concerned about our profitability levels and the ability to find a marketing opportunity to where there's a profit for next several years. The bean storyline is very similar. They have this year's, uh, yield projected at 46.9.

After that, they go up, uh, about a half a bushel a year, uh, and with the 2021 season, they jump it to 50.5, and then from there it's about a half a bushel a year each year out. I know that individual farmers this year in the harvest season, there were certain varieties out there that were new to them this year., in, in beans, and they had some of the best bean yields they ever had on those particular varieties. So there is something to be said that, you know, that the seed industry continues to deliver us more opportunity through yield through these, you know, new genetics. And in the case of beans, going back to the baseline, they're ending stocks this year, they have it 460. I already, already mentioned I think it's going to be quite a bit less than that, but that could be wrong.

But then after that, you know, they have it moving back up to where we're consistently over 500 and around 600 million bushels. That's a lot of beans that are very— that's a very plentiful supply. The demand outlook for beans is maybe a little bit better than the demand outlook for corn in terms of its ability to keep up with production. But they're overall here, there's a storyline that offers a— a warning to a farmer to try to find the best marketing opportunities that he can. And I'm not at all making a case for everybody to run out there and sell, uh, 2020, uh, new crop or 2021 or anything else. But I am making a case that we maybe need to be more in tune with developing a plan for how we're going to lock in a profitable return in, in 2020 and 2021. I'm not sure about 2022, how far a guy is supposed to go out with this.

But if we can find opportunities to do it, it looks to me like maybe that's something that we need to do. And if, as I've mentioned before, my written comments on a daily basis and on podcasts as well, I think there's a lot of opportunity for spreads and basis to be firm and strength to occur in the near-term months. But weakness to occur in the new crop months of 2020 and beyond. And I think that whole scenario, there's a lot of different things that producers can do to try to capture some marketing opportunities. And I'm just saying that I see a situation here where the old standby, you know, toolbox of pulling one or two things out of that toolbox might not be enough in the, the years ahead to, to get the kind of profit and margin that you want to have. And actually more than want to have, you need to have it.

And I'm just telling you that producers need to broaden their horizons there a little bit and be willing to look and talk to people that can find more tools in that toolbox. Because I think it's going to take a bigger toolbox with a, uh, an open mind about, uh, looking for different possible ways to, to generate these profits.

Chris

Barron: Well, and I think to echo a couple of things you said there, Duane, I think first of all, a lot of people probably didn't even know there was a USDA baseline projection report out. And like you said, a lot of people don't pay attention, and most of us as producers, we're busy as— we're up to our eyeballs in work as it is right now. And so I think this is something though that we definitely need to make a commitment to the listeners here now. And as we move forward, we'll definitely take this out because, and, and drill into this. And we probably should even do this on our YouTube channel as well, where we could show some charts and things.

Because I think, you know, based on what you were saying, you know, you, you can say $3.80 on farm price or whatever, but then I was just looking at the baseline projection report as you were talking there, Duane, and 340 does not work for anybody that I, that I work with anyway, as far as a price for corn. And you look at the bean price, prices and things are not strong enough either. And so I think what we need to do probably is just commit to the listeners now to be watching for us to, to do a series probably of several podcasts and/or YouTube reports specifically on this because It— there's no better time after harvest when all this stuff's fresh in our minds to sit down and look at what's working, what's not working with both our marketing plan and our business plan. And also to do a stress test. What if that $3.40 is right?

You know, the first thing we do a lot of times with our clients is we do a stress test of some worst-case scenarios and look at what does that do to the balance sheet. Can we survive that and how do we manage that? And so I think everything you've said here, Duane, kind of sets the stage for further conversation on this and in a lot more detail. And I guess that's throwing a teaser out there to all the listeners to stay tuned because we're going to definitely want to tackle that one, I think. Duane, any other comments from your angle?

Duane

Lowery: Well, I would emphasize as well, this is a topic that I think needs to be enter into a deep dive, and I think it's a multiple series of podcasts and/or videos, whatever, but to discuss this. And I think that again, you know, both of us have been involved in this risk management business for a long, long time. We approach things somewhat differently, but we all fall under that umbrella of managing risk. And sometimes risk is occurred based on decisions that you make, and sometimes risks are occurred, occurs by making no decision. And sometimes making no decision and not even entering into an analysis to come to a conclusion can be a greater risk than actually doing something. And so I'm a strong believer that the first thing that involves risk is knowing where you're at.

And in the case of what you're doing to help people determine their costs and profit margins, and their, their overall financial picture is probably step one, and step two is right immediately follows behind it. That once we get that information, and we're more confident about what our costs are and where we need to market grain, then the next thing that comes right along, tandem alongside that, is developing a marketing plan. And I think that looking ahead, there are many, many tools in the toolbox for marketing. And I think that Everybody out there probably has a lot of room to dig deeper into that toolbox, and they, they need to do it in a manner that they fully understand, you know, what it is they're doing and what the implications are, because any of these longer-term strategies carry risk from a lot of different areas that many people don't think about.

And You know, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't— we should look at this baseline projection and be fearful of what's ahead. It means that we need to be proactive and figure out how are we going to manage that as best that we possibly can. And I just think that this is going to be very, very important in the months ahead, and I echo it completely that we really need to be very aggressive in building some podcasts on this subject. Great.

Chris

Barron: Well, didn't mean to go off to that direction, but I think that baseline projection report was interesting just reading through it myself, and we definitely need to get more of that out to everybody. I think we've probably used up a lot of our time here, but just want to make sure, is there anything else as we go into this week, any final thoughts, comments? Suggestions as we head into a new week?

Duane

Lowery: Well, we're all fearful of USDA at this point, you know, to some extent, maybe it's justified. In other cases, this fear is maybe overblown. But it's been a year where— and I'm not trying to take credit away from USDA. Because for all we know, everything they've told us here this year could be exactly correct. I'm just saying that it's difficult for us to wrap our minds around some of the numbers that USDA puts out. And, and that's caused us to enter into every USDA report with a lot of fear. And, you know, maybe they'll disappoint us with some bearish numbers on Friday. But, you know, let's hope that they do not. Let's hope that we're able to get some price improvement in the months ahead. but even though we can be fearful of USDA, there are a lot of opportunities here to try to capture some good returns, and, and the cash market indicates that it might stay relatively firm.

So I think everybody is going to be best served by being proactive and managing their own operation and their own numbers.

Chris

Barron: You bet. I guess good final thoughts, and I think we'll leave everybody with that for now. And appreciate everybody listening. Hopefully everybody's getting some work done and the weather's cooperating, and stay safe out there, everybody. And thanks a lot, Duane, for the conversation. Appreciate it. You bet, Chris. Yep, thanks a lot. And thanks everybody for listening again to the Ag View Pitch, and we will catch you next time.

Narrator: Thanks again for listening, everyone. If you would like to hear more content from Ag View Solutions, listen to our other podcasts such as Dad's Wisdom or our Current Harvest series. Ag View Solutions works as an integral part of operations like yours, side by side for farm profit management, business collaboration and structuring, facilitating industry-leading peer groups, and coaching and consulting tailored to your farm's unique needs. We know that no two farms are the same, and we are here to help make your farm be the best it can be. You can learn more at agviewsolutions.com, email us at agviewpitch@gmail.com, or call Chris Barron at 319-533-5703. We really look forward to talking with you.