About This Episode
Chris Barron and Duane Lowry open the last week of July 2019 with a dry two-week forecast and no heat to go with it. Lowry says the crop shows stress faster than normal this year because of what it went through to get planted, and that the acres hurting most are the ones that normally pull the national yield up. He drove South Dakota and found the same story everywhere: wide planting windows and fields still a week or two away from tassel.
That leads him to argue the trade's 163 to 166 bushel national corn yield is not mathematically reachable given planting dates and where the damage sits. Price action says otherwise; corn has been heavy, and technicians expect another five to ten cents lower to trigger chart levels. Lowry thinks any such break is temporary rather than the start of a trend, and he sees a better chance that corn is 15 to 20 cents higher and beans 25 cents higher going into the August 12 report.
He also reads the strong cash corn basis as a supply signal rather than weak demand: a small number of hands set origin pricing, and he believes the decision was made not to export US corn. Near-term basis can soften as ethanol plants idle, but he expects basis to run firm through the whole 2019-20 marketing year. On funds, soybeans have not been out of net short in months, which tells him the market never carried the bullish length people assume.
“The only time people say stuff like that is when they don't have any conviction for a position because they are basically trying to justify why they don't have a conviction.”
— Duane Lowry
Key Takeaways
The market is penciling a 163 to 166 bushel national corn yield; Lowry says planting dates and the location of the damage make that mathematically out of reach.
He expects corn 15 to 20 cents higher and soybeans 25 cents higher by the minute before the August 12 report, rather than a market that sits still waiting for it.
Funds have stayed net short soybeans for months even after 50 percent of bean acres went in after June 1 and 30 percent had not emerged by June 20, which he reads as bearish, not bullish, sentiment.
Strong cash corn basis reflects a supply decision not to export US corn, not poor global demand; he expects basis firm all through the 2019-20 marketing year.
Acreage guesses run from 80 million harvested corn acres to 100 million planted, which is why nobody has conviction and why the August report may matter longer than one day.
A near-term five to ten cent break to satisfy chart levels is not a reason to sell new crop corn basis.
Full Transcript
Chris
Barron: And it all comes down to this. Two on, two out, bottom of the ninth. The Farmers lead by one. Full count, here comes the play at the plate, and it's the Ag View Pitch! Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch. We're starting out a new week and you've got Chris Barron and Dwayne Lowery here, and we're gonna have a little conversation as we head into a new week. How's it going today, Dwayne?
Duane
Lowery: Good, Chris. I hope everything's well with you. It's been a good weekend if you wanted to be out in the weather. We probably have people with agendas other than using weather for pleasure. But if you're looking at it from that perspective, it's probably been a good weekend.
Chris
Barron: Yeah, yeah, we're starting to see a lot of the corn, at least in our area, start to roll up. Pretty tight on some of the light soil. And I just talked to a guy who was driving from Des Moines up to northeast Iowa and drove across a big stretch of the state and was seeing some, quite a bit of variability out there and just starting to see some stress from the lack of rain, that's for sure. So some of that stuff starting to show up.
Duane
Lowery: Yeah, and we look ahead at the forecast. You know, forecasts can change, but what it looks like right now, there's a lot of areas that are going to be having to count raindrops in order to be able to say they had any rain. And it's a, it's a point of concern. It's a little bit like a death by a thousand paper cuts type of thing because we don't have the heat. So you get some circles that if you don't have heat, nobody cares what the weather is.— but if you're a farmer looking at your field, you know, you know you need some moisture. And this year we have a situation because of all the conditions that the crop went through to get to this point. It seems like the crop is quicker to show stress than it would be under a normal condition, quicker to show moisture deficiency, even if there happens to be moisture in the soil profile.
For one reason or another, the plant uptake isn't what it would be normally. And so that creates a quicker concern on conditions that, you know, normally wouldn't be such a problem.
Chris
Barron: Yeah, what— so that, you know, there's the weather story out there. Is there any— anything else, you know, that might be a factor driving the markets as we go into this new week? Or is it just pretty much weather? What's your thought there?
Duane
Lowery: Well, let's, let's dive into the weather thing just a little bit more first. The, the weather forecast has a lack of heat. So again, there are certain sectors of the trade that if you don't have heat, they're not really concerned about anything else you have to say about weather. But the heat and temperature thing has its own storyline. You have— last week I spent 3 days in South Dakota and the journey to and back. And it's quite obvious that you have a lot of acres that are not pollinating at a timely point. And, you know, you have still yet here basically the 1st of August, you got acres that clearly won't pollinate till the 10th of August.— and so when we talk about the temperature, on the one hand you got people who would like to see a little bit more heat, a little more growing degrees, and speed the crop up a little bit.
But because they're concerned about whether or not it's going to reach maturity, reach black layer before the first frost, or whether it's going to be able to, you know, fill to optimum levels. On the other hand, You got people that know that if we had, uh, the type of heat we had a couple of weeks ago, crop stress would be rapidly accelerating because of the lack of moisture. So people aren't sure exactly what to hope for. They also are concerned that if we get a heat wave, it will advance the crop in a way that is detrimental to fill. And now the cool temperatures, has the benefit of maybe maximizing fill, but that's all with an asterisk attached to it that you have to be able to have your crop have enough time to, to, to reach maturity. And in some places that's a problem.
And one thing I thought was interesting when I was out there in South Dakota, went to a little mini Farm Progress Show almost, it was the Hefty Brothers field day out there. And so there's people from all over the Midwest, and I went out of my way to try to talk to as many people as possible. Everybody had a name tag and they had a location from them. And so I talked to pretty much everybody, somebody from everywhere in, in the Midwest. And I thought it was interesting that the common comments were kind of universal no matter where you were from. Everybody had wide planting windows where they had some planted early some planted very late. A lot of people in different geographical regions talked about the fact that they got a lot of acres that had not passed tasseled yet and were still a week or two away. That was evident there in South Dakota and along the drive back and forth.
And so, you know, these themes about the temperature concerns and not knowing whether you should hope for warmth or whether you should hope for coolness and not sure which is best. These are questions that cover a large area. And so, you know, as far as tonight is concerned, the weather, to me, the weather is, is some degree of bullish. And I say that because of the lack of precip in it. But I do know and respect that a lot of people in this business will not look at weather that way. So, um, but I find it very troubling that we have a lack of moisture in our forecast. And the— it's important to remember that the places experiencing some of the most problems this year with 2019 are those acres that, uh, pull national yield up because they produce, uh, yields well above national, uh, yield levels.
And those very same acres are some of the problems acres that are facing some of the driest forecasts right now over the next 2 weeks. So mathematically, it seems statistically impossible to me that, you know, we can get anywhere close to what the marketplace is currently penciling in for yields. And I would say the marketplace right now is penciling in a 163 to 166 national yield in corn. And between the planting dates and the studies that show how much the the planting dates has on yield potential, and the fact that the acres suffering the greatest this year are those acres that are pulling the national yields up, I don't think it's mathematically possible to achieve those levels. I think the actual figure is something less than that. And that's given current conditions and not including something that might deteriorate further from here forward.
So when I look at the weather, I say that yes, we don't have heat, so we don't have the emotion, but we have a lack of precip, and that adds to the concern and the stress at a time where I don't think we can afford any acre to go backwards in yield potential, because we've already lost so much yield potential, uh, with other factors that are already cemented in. And so to me, that means I need to look at weather as being bullish, but not everybody will. The other thing that people are looking at tonight in regards to how the market will open or how it will trade early this week is just based on price action. And in the case of corn, price action has been heavy, it's been weak, it's been disappointing if you're a bull. And it's concerning from those levels. And we're at the bottom side of parameters we've seen here over the last several weeks.
And the technician, kind of expects that we're going to see corn prices weaken another 5 or 10 cents, trigger some chart levels, create some liquidation pressures, etc. And history and tendency would be on their side that that is a, is a reasonable expectation. I don't know whether we will do that or not. I don't think it's a given, but it certainly is a reasonable expectation. But I will say that even if that does happen, I don't think that translates into a price action that morphs into a trending lower pattern, a building downside momentum pattern, and a, you know, a perpetual weakening in the next several weeks. I don't think that happens.
I think this will be— if that is what destiny has it, that we experience some near-term weakness to take out those chart points and to satisfy technicians' desires and self-fulfilling prophecies— if that is what happens, I think it will be a temporary phase, and it will not be a lasting phase. So putting into perspective from farmer marketing, I think current prices are price levels that farmers will have multiple opportunities to sell at in the, in this upcoming marketing season. And I find it difficult to be all that enticed to make a sale here because the guy is afraid that the corn market could break a dime here near term on some tech-based selling. So the calls for tonight are mixed. People look at price action and they look at how the market has ignored friendly storylines, whether they were weather forecasts or, or crop condition reports or planting progress.
It's just been a tendency that if you get something bullish, the market feels the need to slap you in the face with it. And so because of that general activity that's happened this year, there's not a lot of confidence in, in a higher call tonight. And so the default setting by many will be to expect weakness tonight. I'm— I don't share that view. I think the markets probably will be higher. And then the question is, you know, are we going to get slapped in the face again or not? But I do believe the lack of precip, the dryness concern, the lack of precip in the forecast, is a storyline that I sense has gained traction from where it would have been late last week, and it certainly was evident then.
But if you were counting raindrops from Thursday or Friday's forecast into today's forecast, I think you would find fewer raindrops in your 2-week outlook, both near-term and, and in the deferred. So to me, weather's a little friendly, so I'm, I'm looking for a little strength tonight, but, uh, that's not a given. There's a lot of people looking at it from a different perspective than that.
Chris
Barron: As you put it, being slapped in the face. So in other words, we get the radar shows some rain kind of going across the area and, you know, the cooler weather and stuff. So let's say we, we do continue to drift a little lower on corn here and you take that 5 cents or nickel or that dime off. And I think some of the growers out there, just in conversations that I've had, you know, are a little bit scared, or not, maybe not scared is the best word, but just a little cautious with being long the market. We're probably on that bottom end though, aren't we? Or where do you think from your perspective as far as, you know, I mean, you talk a dime, is there risk of further further, you know, market erosion beyond that in your, your view?
Duane
Lowery: Well, there's always risk of that happening. And people could point to seasonalities, and they might find some things on their side that they could point to to justify that. But I would look at it a little bit from this perspective. In the last few years, without pulling up a chart, without naming exactly the price and the timeframe. But in the last few years, we've had situations where we've had ample old crop inventory, which is an argument could be made is true also this year. But the basis this year versus previous years is significantly different. But we have had ample old crop supplies. And we also had expectations of ample new crop production, maybe even, you know, record new crop production. And we had tremendously bearish sentiment into that August timeframe. Maybe it was middle of August, maybe it was the end of August.
And you had, you know, the tin can harvest of your, your bins being emptied. And going along with that, personally, I think the tin can harvest has occurred a lot sooner this year. I don't sense people have waited till the tail end. I know there's got to be some still out there. I'm not trying to say it's not. I just think a lot of people for varied reasons have been more aggressive on their marketing from say December of last year through today than they would have been maybe in some of the recent years. And so, but if going back to the point about looking at the last few years, you had ample old crop supplies, ample new crop expectations, and yet And, and, and you had very negative sentiment, very panicked, nervous, scared sentiment. And each of those years you bottomed in that August timeframe.
And the market held well, despite a record harvest, and oftentimes had that post-harvest rally that turned out to be relatively notable, given the price ranges that you'd had in those years to that date. So my point is, there's not a strong argument for prices to get substantially weaker in this timeframe. And despite the fact that we've had ample supplies, so there's been other things that drive us. Now, this year is different from the standpoint you can say, well, the market's more bullish. Well, it has been more bullish, but I've never felt that the market has been saturated with length and a lot of emotion. I've never felt that has been the case. And if you go look at chat rooms, agriculture chat rooms, you have conversations in a coffee shop atmosphere, you talk to a group of farmers, you get Q&A from a group of farmers.
It is clear that even the farm community that's as close to the problems as anybody is not at all one-sided. There are a lot of people that are skeptical, feeling that the high is in, feeling that prices are going to get weaker. And, you know, they have that type of viewpoint. And that viewpoint is driven by, you know, somewhat seasonal, but I think it's largely driven by this slap in the face effect where they've seen too many times in the past where they felt that there were reasons for the market to go up and the market didn't go up anyway. And they look at all the times this year where we had, you know, some bullish storyline or report, etc., and only to find out that hours later you know, the invisible hand was shoving that in our face. So there's— I sense a lot of skepticism in the trade right now. And so I don't think that we have a one-sided bullish sentiment.
And if I have to point to something statistically to back up that, you know, what probably people would argue is a gut feeling, if I have to point to something statistically, I point to the Commitment of Traders report in beans that they've never been out of net short positions by the funds for, you know, many, many months. And if that's not an indication that the sentiment has never been all that bullish, I don't, I don't know what would be. And considering the fact that that's the result of having 50% of your soybean acres planted after June 1st and 30% of your acres not even emerged on June 20th, If they've decided to stay short through all of that, then that to me is bearish sentiment. That certainly is not bullish sentiment.
So again, I use that as, as justification for my, my, my assessment that the marketplace has really never been as bullish as it could have been given the inputs that we have.
Chris
Barron: Yeah, and right now there's just the feel too that until we get to August 12th, right, that there's just, you know, what'd you call it a week or so ago, you know, commitment, or I can't remember the term you used, but conviction, maybe that was it, to one way or the other. You know, I think it's almost like you see a lot of people just sitting on their hands right now on the trade. Kind of wait and see what, what comes up. I mean, do you agree with that?
Duane
Lowery: I absolutely agree with that. Because due to this lack of conviction, and due to price action, in the case of corn, it's been heavy, beans have been more sideways, not quite as heavy. But in the case of corn, it's been weak, it's been heavy, it's been disappointing to somebody that's bullish. But In light of that, the traders' response is that, well, the market's not going to do anything till after we get to the August 12th report. And some will say we might not even know about what the results are until September. We might not even know until January after the harvest, you know, how— what the situation is like. The only time people say stuff like that is when they don't have any conviction for a position because they are basically trying to justify why they don't have a conviction. Why they don't want a position or they're not comfortable with the position that they have.
You know, markets move, you know, virtually every day, almost 24 hours a day. And when you're talking about a market not being able to move for months and having to wait until we get some known fact, you know, it's months away. That's probably not a realistic scenario about how it's actually going to play out, but it gives total justification for the lack of conviction. And maybe the marketplace won't move until after the August report. Maybe it won't move until after harvest. Anything's possible. I just think that's highly unlikely. I think there's a far better chance given the fact that we've been in a liquidation mode in corn for a couple of weeks at minimum, and we've been stagnating for maybe longer than that.
And considering that we haven't been able to get the markets to respond to some of these bullish things that we think we have noticed along the way, that tells me that the marketplace already has liquidated a lot, does not have the length in it that tends to create a precipitous fall. And with the uncertainty of that report ahead of us, I think there's a far better, more likely scenario that we are actually strengthening into that August 12th report. And when I say strengthening, I mean in terms of, you know, having the corn market be 15 or 20 cents higher than where it is today by the time that report, you know, the minute before that report comes out, by having beans being 25 cents higher or more than where they are right now by the time that report comes out. So I think there's a better chance of that than there is of markets waiting.
So, I don't really buy that argument, but that is a common theme. But I, again, I think it's a reflection of the lack of conviction that people make those kind of statements. And I think it's justification for them not to be involved.
Chris
Barron: Yeah, and that report, when, so when that thing comes out, whether it's bullish or bearish, let's say, obviously it could be either way, but there's, majority of the farmers anyway are probably expecting, you know, some reality, some, some truth to come out, or the things that they see, you know, that we on the farm see as a reality, um, in terms of acres. But, you know, regardless of how that comes out, um, that could— couldn't it be— and I guess I'm asking a question, but couldn't that be a kind of a flash in the pan where you get a 1 or a 2-day response and we get right back into into a weather market because we are such at the mercy of the weather, even throughout the rest of August and into September. Because, you know, farmers look at this from a realistic perspective, they're viewing the crop and everything.
The traders, on the other hand, look at it from the information that they see via satellite or whatever, you know, or whoever it is that they trust, you know. So I mean, is it, is it probable that that, you know, we see a big move one way or the other, and regardless of which way that move is, we settle back into whatever range we're in pre— or in other words, right in front of that report. And then, and then it's going to be dictated from there on based on weather anyway, right? I mean, it seems like there's a lot of hype for this report, but it just feels to me like this is another one of these typical reports that's going to be probably as critical as any report we've maybe ever had.
But on the same token, it, it's a flash in the pan in the grand scheme of things, because weather is still going to have to drive this thing for, you know, for the narrative, probably for the next 6 weeks after this report yet.
Duane
Lowery: Well, it's certainly true that weather will have a big influence on how this crop finishes. And therefore it will have a big influence. And considering that right now we don't know what we're dealing with, and considering that we've already reduced potential and our carryout levels have been shrunken from where they thought they were going to be prior to the beginning of the planting season, then your statement is, is correct that the weather is going to still have, you know, an influence. But the reason that this August 12th report could be more important than just the flash in the pan is the fact that, in all honesty, nobody has a clue what our starting point is. We do not know what our acres are, and they are so wide-ranging that, um, that is the— probably the fundamental reason that we don't have the conviction. People just have no idea what the starting point is.
You know, you have people talking about harvested acres and focusing on that and saying corn harvested acres will be 80 million or less. And you got people saying that the starting point, well, planted acres could be 100 million. I don't think that's correct. But that's, that's the range that you have. And so the trade, after getting the June acreage data from USDA, which typically is seen as something that provides clarity, only clouded the issue even more so. And so the trade is hoping to get clarity out of this August report. And so that's what makes it significant. And because the ranges are so wide, and for what that starting point is, it is possible that, that report has a more lasting meaning, whether it's bullish or bearish, because of that acreage and because we just don't have a starting point.
I think that, um, USDA probably has a better handle on this thing than what they tend to release and the timing in which they release it. And so I think it's interesting how swift USDA has been to respond to issues associated with the 2019 production problems. It's been interesting to watch them unfold and swiftness to prevent plant, to altering prevent plant, to allow cover cropping, to allow grazing, all these factors, you know, new payments to farmers because of— they'll say it's based on trade, but I suggest that it's probably based on more than just trade. And so all these factors lead me to believe that there's a heightened sense of concern at that USDA decision-making level. And so I think that, that argues against some surprise bearish numbers that suddenly show a massive increase in either corn acres or, or some level of increase in bean acres.
I think that that just doesn't seem to make sense to me that they would be sitting on that kind of information and then, and then yet respond in the manner that they have with the farm program payments and adjustments and be so quick to try to, try to address feed needs with, uh, when those, uh, cover or prevent plant acres could be harvested earlier for silage, etc. That just doesn't seem like anything in the realm of normal. And, uh, so I'm, I'm inclined to think that, uh, there's something going on. I also think inclined to think that the cash basis is driven by the same thing. You know, people need to realize that the cash grain trading world is really molded and crafted by a small number of hands. And they're the same hands that craft and mold the pricing structure in the cash grain trading world on a global scale.
And if these entities want to make sure that global origin of choice at a given point in time is South American beans or US beans, they craft that into the price structure to make that happen. And I think when you had cash corn basis so early on respond so significantly, despite having basically a 2 billion bushel or higher carryout level, that's telling us something. And I think that there's been a collective decision made by these small number of hands that says we're not exporting U.S. supplies. So when the U.S. corn exports are not all that favorable or they're seen as poor, people want to say that's poor demand. When you look at global, uh, usage, I don't think you can say demand is poor. And, uh, to the extent that, uh, people come to the conclusion that it's poor, poor demand for U.S.
corn, I make the case that the, uh, it's really a supply-driven issue., and the, the concern about new crop supply is so great by these, by this core nucleus of people that set these price structures in a relationship from one origin to another, I think the decision was made, we're not going to promote export of U.S. corn, at least for a while. And so I think that's—
Chris
Barron: For clarification, Duane, then you're saying that that with the small number of hands, it's the demand story is more whether or not we're a willing seller out of the US to another destination, whether or not we want to sell because if we sell too much too quick, all of a sudden the cost is pretty high for those few hands. Letting that go, you know, keeping the physical close for now anyway.
Duane
Lowery: I think there is concern how the US cash grain physical supply is going to work. There's going to be bushels moving in directions it's never moved before. Where's the Southeast feeder market going to get its corn when the Eastern Midwest has been, you know, so significantly impacted? Are we going to have to import corn into those markets? What does a cash market structure have to do to make that economically work? You know, all of these things aren't things that happen accidentally. They are, they are orchestrated. And I'm just saying that I think the cash basis, that strength that we've had in corn is more a reflection of a supply concern, and the decision is made that we're going to price U.S. corn in a manner that we do not export it, rather than it be being driven by the fact that there's no demand on the other end. I argue that there's all kinds of demand on the other end.
And had they not ratcheted basis levels to where they would, would have, we would have exported corn at a pace and a level that was not comfortable given the supply, either outlook or supply uncertainty, depending on how you want to view that and what level of conviction you want to have about that supply. So I'm saying that there's been a lot of strange things happen this year that can't necessarily be easily explained without, you know, some three-dimensional thought going on here. And I just posed— and I mentioned that privately to a lot of people. I've written that kind of that storyline in my daily comments frequently over the last several weeks. I'm not sure if I've mentioned that in a podcast or not. But that is my view on why cash corn basis in the US has been strong.
And I think that because of that reasoning, then I don't I look at the situation as being, you know, more underlying supportive than maybe other people might. And so recently, we've seen old crop basis soften up some here. And that's largely been driven by word that some ethanol plants are going to shut down. And I understand that that's probably reasonable. And it is possible that basis levels can't be maintained where they're at all the way going into harvest. And I get the all the storylines behind that.
But if the overall supply situation is not too much differently than what I've described, meaning that carryout will be significantly less than it was expected to be, things of this nature, even though basis can back off in the temporary near-term for whatever reason, it's very possible that when you look forward for the entire '19-'20 marketing season, the odds are, I would say, high that cash basis levels will be significantly stronger in this next marketing year throughout the entire marketing year than it has been in any of the previous 3 or 4 marketing years. And so I think that is going to be a, a theme that stays even though we may lose some near-term basis. And if we were to get a futures-led rally over the next several weeks, whether that was driven by weather, or whether it was driven by something from the August 12th reports, it is probably likely that that would soften basis.
Because at that point in time, you know, the farmer is probably going to be letting go of some old crop corn, and it's going to be easier for them to buy and you are going to lose some of your ethanol demand. So it is probably true that you can experience some basis softening here over the next few to several weeks. But that doesn't mean that that's going to be the trend throughout the next marketing year. I think the next marketing year, you're going to find basis levels quite firm in relationship to where it's been the last few years. So just because nearby cash basis weakens in, in the next couple of weeks, if that happens, or just because it has weakened over the last week or two, that's not a reason to run out here and be selling new crop corn basis.
Chris
Barron: As far as— and we're getting probably to where we're going to want to wrap up here in a few minutes. But as far as we go, I guess two-part, you know, going into this week, is there anything to be looking at or thinking through as we kind of look at a new week? And then any other comments or anything that we didn't touch on that you thought maybe we should have hit on?
Duane
Lowery: Oh, um, I don't know, this is going to sound a little bit like a cop-out, but, um, I think price action is going to dictate what we look at. You know, in this business, you know, picture a guy, a market analyst, uh, picture myself, you know, I don't— I hope I don't fall in this category, but, uh, picture anybody you want that's a market analyst, and you're sitting at a desk and and on their desk they have a pull-out drawer on the left side of their desks and they got to— outdrawn on the right side of the desk. And on the left side it says "The Bull Drawer," on the right side it says "The Bear Drawer." And on the middle of their desk, on top of their desk, they have quote screen. And if that quote screen has markets down that day we're going to pull out of that bear drawr and if market screens have up that day we'll go into bull drawrs.
We're going to back into an explanation and justification for whatever that computer screen showed. And so it's, it's maybe sounds like a cop-out, but we are at a situation on a price area, a technical important level, a place where recent longs have been, you know, liquidated, worn out, tired, frustrated, etc. We're dealing with weather uncertainties. And if the price action shows some strength and gives some credibility to the dryness storyline, if it reflects that an idea that maybe we've already seen as much liquidation as we're going to get, and therefore the price action is a little bit better, it doesn't take much strength to turn the tables on the technician here. If you get beans to rally, you know, let's just say they were to rally 15 cents from where they're at on Friday settlement, that table turns quickly against the bear in the beans.
If the corn were to rally, you know, 10 cents, it provides a lot of stability. If you want to talk about something that forces the technician to look at the other side of his opinion and turn more bullish, you probably got to get at least $0.20 out of the corn market. But those kind of things are, are possible and plausible. And it's possible that those kind of levels can, can occur before that August 12th report. And so as far as, you know, you know, what's out here that we haven't talked about today, you know, I'm not sure. But if we can get a little bit of traction on the weather story, a little bit of traction on the concern that I feel is a growing concern in the country on the boots-on-the-ground level, I don't think it takes much for the marketplace to quickly create a different narrative than maybe it had last week. And I don't know what that is.
You got Tuesday, you got US-Chinese officials meeting. On trade delegation. And I will say this, the expectations are so low they virtually don't exist that there will be anything positive that comes out of that. Maybe that's the case. But, you know, they don't tend to have these meetings unless there's some level of advancement in the ball down the pathway. Otherwise, people, they don't make these commitments to have these meetings. So, you know, if there's a surprise coming there could be some sort of surprise there. And since the expectations are that nothing will get done, the only room for a surprise is to be some sort of supportive surprise. And so, you know, you have that. Maybe that, that's going to be something there ahead of us. But in the, in the short term, you know, we're going to determine whether we talk bullish or bearish based on how the price action unfolds.
And I'm, I'm thinking that We have plenty of things in our bull drawer to talk about, but, you know, we got to get some price action, otherwise nobody wants to pull out of that drawer. You look silly.
Chris
Barron: Right. Well, thanks a lot. And I think, you know, all good comments, all things, you know, not a huge amount of excitement right now. But I think we're— we've got this slow trending dryness growing across the, across the country. We've got all these variable planting dates, and we've got you know, corn and soybeans planted on prevent plant acres that are going to be counted, and hopefully there's recognition of that as, as planted that's, that's, you know, actually on prevented plant acres and going to be harvested as such for feed and some other things. And but as that dry weather continues to, to spread across the U.S., we continue to get more calls on that, and so we'll just have to see what the weather does. And Duane, I appreciate the comments. Do we need to be talking middle of the week at some point here, do you think, again, or what's your thought there?
Duane
Lowery: Well, maybe we'll do something tomorrow depending on crop condition ratings, but I doubt if they're going to change much. And they'll probably be— I think the trade probably expects them to decline slightly, maybe 1%. So I'm not sure that we'll have anything really new to talk about. We might wait and do a podcast on you know, more of a midweek outlook. But, uh, if something occurs that makes it, uh, seem worthwhile, we'll, we'll do a podcast tomorrow afternoon.
Chris
Barron: Okay, well, that sounds good. If anybody has any questions out there too, please, please email us or get a hold of us, give us a call. And, um, you know, like to talk to you one-on-one, just get some crop reports and some more information. But if you have questions, email us questions, and we'd be sure to address those. So thanks a lot, Duane. Appreciate your, your time and look forward to seeing what comes up this week.
Duane
Lowery: Thanks, Chris. And also a special thanks to anybody that's listening to our podcast. We really appreciate it.
Chris
Barron: Yeah, we sure do. And if you're not already subscribed, please subscribe and tell your friends about it, and we'll try to keep bringing you the best information we can from a perspective standpoint. And again, thanks for everybody joining us on this episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we will catch you next time.
Duane
Lowery: Thanks for joining us on today's episode of the Ag View Pitch. As always, you can reach out to us at cbarron@agviewsolutions.com or duanel@netins.net. We'll catch you next time on the Ag View Pitch.