Ten topics for the weekly market outlook, Feb. 21-24th

Narrator: Hey everybody, just wanted to give you a quick intro before we get rolling on the podcast with Duane Lowry. We have a great conversation, so be sure to listen all the way to the end. We're going to hit really 10 important topics, and with the markets not being open on Monday, we thought Sunday and Monday would be a good chance for you to think of some of these things and kind of think about how you're managing your margins. So the 10 things are acreage, planting intentions is number 1, number 2, crop insurance price discovery, number 3, South American weather, Number 4, the Ukraine-Russian war. Number 5, Chinese demand. Number 6, inflation. Number 7, interest rates. Number 8, energy. Number 9, stock market. And number 10, managing your margins in this risky environment. So be sure to listen to the end of the podcast and hope you have a great week. Take care, everybody.

Chris

Barron: Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch. We are heading into another marketing week and we are having a 4-day week actually. And as a guest today, we have with us Duane Lowry. Duane, how's it going?

Duane

Lowry: Uh, good, Chris. Glad to be here.

Chris

Barron: Well, it's good to have you. I haven't talked to you for a long time, so we're gonna have to catch up here for a couple minutes here at the beginning of this, maybe for a second. But, uh, We're heading into the last few days of February, the 20th through the 24th. That means what, about 7 more days of price discovery for crop insurance? Does that sound right?

Duane

Lowry: I think that sounds right. And, uh, it's been a little disappointing in terms of the prices we're getting versus maybe where we could have been here, you know, several weeks ago or a few months ago, but still it's, better than where it was a couple of weeks ago as well.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, it's going to be an interesting, interesting finish up here. Roughly where are we at on the numbers as, as the, as we record this here now?

Duane

Lowry: The average for the month to date on corn is just a little bit over $5.95, and for beans it's $13.76 and a quarter.

Chris

Barron: Okay, yeah, because last year, I mean, we were a little ahead of corn corn last year, we were in that $14.33 range, if I remember correctly. And, and for some reason, the soybeans just seem to not want to buy acres. When we look at the numbers between corn and soybeans in terms of profitability, it seems like corn wins out about 90% of the time with most of the farmers that we, we run the numbers on and kind of look at profitability from one crop to the next. Any thoughts on what's kind of why the soybean, you know, corn-soybean ratio, I guess I'll put it that way, is kind of the way it is. Is there just any thoughts on that?

Duane

Lowry: Well, I don't have a good explanation. It's not where I thought that we would be. You know, if you'd asked me this 2 or 3 months ago, I would have said that somewhere along the line, by the time we got into this spring period, the marketplace would have found a way to try to encourage more bean acres and/or to encourage a few less corn acres, depending on how you want to look at it. Because, uh, um, the way it is now and the way it seems from, you know, the heart of the Midwest, we're going to have more corn acres, um, and less bean acres. And, uh, if you go look at the balance sheets, um, I'm not sure that's what the marketplace should be sending for a signal, but yet that is what it's sending.

Chris

Barron: Yeah. Interesting. So speaking of acres, talk a little bit about what, what you think the mix is going to be or kind of what, what are you looking at with regard to acres, you know, corn, soybeans, wheat, other crops, any, any news, things that we should be paying attention to as we head towards spring?

Duane

Lowry: Well, I don't know what the acres are going to be. And I'm not typically one that tries to anticipate what that's going to be looking at a number crunchers. But I can tell you that the marketplace in general seems to feel comfortable thinking corn acres could be a couple million acres higher than last year, a few people think it could be more than that. And then, you know, you— some people want to lower the bean acres. Other people want to increase bean acres and reduce cotton acres. So there's more than one just corn and bean matrix that's being discussed by the marketplace. I don't know where it comes into play, but if you look at, you know, you add a couple million acres to corn and now all of a sudden you've got production that's probably gonna be, you know, closer to 14.5 billion probably.

And total use this year was 13.9, which would mean about a 600 million carryout increase if you did add a couple million acres and you got trendline yields and you left usage the same. But in that statement, there's an awful lot of variables. Number one, what's the trendline yield versus, you know, trendline yield expectation versus what's actually going to be the total usage number in corn. If you say it's the same as last year at 13.9, that's a billion bushels less than it was the previous year. And about 900 million less than it was 2 years ago. So do you think that the usage this next year will be similar to this year or something more like you've had in the previous year or 2 years ago? The difference largely is in exports. And I would say that most do not believe exports are going to— from the US are going to go back to levels it was last year or 2 years ago.

If that's the case and you're dealing with usage closer to 14, you know, um, you really can't add too many acres to corn without creating a completely different supply and demand scenario, ending stock scenario than we've had for the last couple years, which would imply that, um, somewhere down the road we might see prices well below where they're at. In the case of beans, you go through the same type of you know, mental exercise. It would seem to imply that you need more acres. If you had acres that's the same as last year, and you put in, you know, 51.5 yield, you're talking about about 4.5 billion bushels worth of production. Total use this year was 4.355, the previous year 4.465, and 2 years ago was 4.2. So, um, you can't afford to lose many acres without putting the challenge on your ending stocks.

And there are some people that say that exports this year at one point, well, it was just under $2 billion, which was down almost a couple hundred million from the previous year. Uh, some people think that those, that export figure will go up again the next year. I don't know. I don't have too strong of an opinion about that. But the bottom line is when you look at acreage, beans seem more precarious to me than does corn. But yet the marketplace hasn't really been acting that way.

Chris

Barron: Mm-hmm. Yeah, it's almost, you know, I've almost kind of been wondering, like in our own operation, and we see this with quite a few clients, planting a little bit more corn. But it almost feels like we need to be a little more aggressive. And this isn't a recommendation or anything, just some little perspective. But it almost feels like we need to be a little more aggressive pricing corn and a little more patient on the soybean side for some of the reasons you just described. You know, and I guess that leads me to another question. You know, the A lot of the geopolitical experts and stuff are really thinking about what's going to potentially come in the spring with the Ukraine, Russian-Ukraine war, and what that might mean and how Russia may go after a lot of the, you know, the agricultural stuff and really mess up that part of the world. Is there any thoughts on that?

I mean, if, if we see some issues in that part of the world and possibly we see some additional issues in South America, does all that, you know, yield some positive price opportunities for us? Or what things are you watching there from a world perspective?

Duane

Lowry: Well, I think Ukraine, Russia, there's certainly uncertainty there. I think that I happen to be of the belief that Uh, Ukraine is losing this war, and I think that, uh, um, the recent, very recent, just a matter of days, comments that have come from U.S. officials, uh, and even some European officials, it seems to me like they're preparing for the spin masters to change the tone a little bit and maybe lower expectations. Um, they're talking about Ukraine not having enough ammunition. They're talking about difficulty from getting that ammunition from NATO stocks or U.S. stocks. And this is coming from, uh, you know, U.S. officials and NATO officials. Um, that sounds to me like they're preparing to, uh, say that, you know, we've done all we can do and And if Ukraine loses, it's their fault. It's not our fault.

And that, you know, maybe I'm a little cynical in that perspective, but that's what it looks like to me. And I think that there's a chance that there is a Russian offensive that takes place soon. I've seen headlines from, you know, CNBC in the last few days. It says the offensive has begun and that may very well be true. I probably tend to believe it is true. The question is, what does that offensive look like and how does the marketplace react to the idea that Ukraine is not doing well and the outcome may not come as, as the West would like it to be? In that process, uh, well, let's separate that. Initially, if there is a seen as an escalation and an offensive, the marketplace in the grains probably takes that, as a bullish input and, and rises from that.

At the other end of the spectrum is an idea that at some point this conflict comes to an end and there's some sort of diplomatic solution, whether it's agreed upon or forced upon, and that would end up being bearish to the grain market. So there's a transition period that might be a lot less than what we think in terms of how long it takes the marketplace to look for at one perspective and then another. I think it's also important to remember that last year, in the terms of Ukraine, Russia, the biggest market influence was wheat. It was dramatic early, but it also didn't last very long. And the marketplace trended lower for much of last year, which was contrary to market expectations and market sentiment. And, and so I think that any Ukraine-Russia push-up in prices that occurs, we probably should expect it to be short-lived.

I think there's also a chance that because of the timeframe this is occurring, you know, we're going to be focusing some attention on U.S. weather and we could range that from being too dry in the West and the Plains, the western parts of the western Midwest. We could talk about it being too wet in parts of the East. We're going to start to look at what the temperature and planting condition themes are at. So that opens up a lot of variability. And I'm not sure we're done talking about South American production and weather, mostly finalizing production numbers. And there's a good chance that when we get the, the March USDA supply and demand report, we're probably going to get further reductions in South American production, including South Brazil beans. And that opens up a door for that to be a supportive undercurrent.

So I think there's a chance that the markets at the moment were, you know, right at this moment as of Friday settlement, we've probably seen the weakest near-term values that we're going to see in whatever weakness we had over the last several days. Maybe that's enough. So I think there's a chance that some of these other issues I just mentioned are going to provide some support, some bubbling of price action, maybe adding some what-if premium back into, in the market prices. And then, so I think we have a window where there's some opportunity for the markets to get a little bit better. And as far as how much of a bump we get and how quick it occurs, you know, all these factors are going to weigh in on that.

But I think from a time frame, it's not unreasonable to expect that we can be— have firmness into this March USDA report, that gives us roughly 3 weeks where the market may be supported. And if any of these other factors come in to add a little emotion to it, you know, that certainly can add to it. I would also say that even though the marketplace has been relatively firm over the last couple of months, since the last time I'd done a podcast with you, probably there's been a lot of bearish sentiment and a lot of anticipation, anticipation of bad things happening to the grain market, all of which may very well be warranted, but maybe the timing is not quite right. So I think there is a chance for some short covering activity here as well. And, you know, just this last week, I think it was, beans got back to the highest levels they were since June of 2022.

And, you know, some of these contracts were near contract highs. In the cases of corn, we got back to, you know, the upper side of our price parameters that we've seen for old crop corn over the last few months. But largely, we've been in a very small trading range in corn for at least the last 2 months. But we're perched near the upper part of that. So it doesn't take much additional strength to to make the charts look impressive and get the market to buy into it. I'm not, I'm not sure that such a rally would be sustained, but I think it could occur. But if you look at the new crop markets, you know, they've been on the softer side in the case of corn, and you're sitting at the bottom side of the parameters in Dec '23 corn that you've been in basically since, you know, August, September.

So, the marketplace in the case of the corn has probably absorbed some of this talk about increased acreage expectations. So, it seems like there's a chance for some recovery there. You know, we're at $5.95, give or take, Dec '23 corn. For that to get back to $6.25 is not an unreasonable statement. To get, to get back to $6.50, seems more, um, difficult. And I would say that in all of these factors, if we get a rally over the next 30 or 45 days, I think there's a reasonable chance because of many other factors, um, we're going to see the— some of the best pricing opportunities for 2023 occur in the near future as opposed to occurring during the summer or late summer season. I'm much more concerned about downside risk. When you look at the big picture.

Chris

Barron: I think from a conservative approach, that's a good mindset to have probably to just to make sure that we're managing risk because we're putting in the most— I mean, Shay said that Shay and I have said this 1,000 times if we've said it once, but, you know, and everybody knows this, but we're putting in the most expensive crop we've ever put in. And we've also probably have some of the highest risk we've ever had. With that said, just a couple of more quick questions here before we wrap up on US-China relations. Obviously, that's been a little bit of a pressure point here the last few weeks. And, you know, do you see anything on that front that's of concern? I mean, it seems like if the price is right, China is a hungry country. They got to have food. Everything they do is pretty much all imported.

Do you see anything there as a watch out or any changes or what's your thought there?

Duane

Lowry: At the present time, China has to have US origin supplies. They can't completely get away from us. I think the key here is that they are constantly looking for ways to influence production, transportation, and business connections in South America. And I think that they are trying very, very hard to very, very rapidly diminish the necessity to have U.S. origin. I'm not sure that ever goes away, but I think they're significantly trying to diminish their reliance on U.S. And I think these factors are troubling. And I think it's a sign that the U.S. is going to give up market share when it comes to China's demand. To South America. And I think that the whole renewable diesel program that's underway in the US and the, the expansion of crush capacity here is a clear indication that the major players see a similar situation where we're going to lose market share.

Because I don't think— I think it's very difficult to find a big increase in the corn soybean acre combination in the US. We just don't have the ability to expand that production, uh, at least at the present time. And the only way that could possibly change is if somehow there was the miracle seed developments and seed genetics developments that allowed these crops to be grown successfully in, in some other regions. But, um, assuming the corn and bean acreage in the US is relatively stagnant and can't get a lot larger, this whole renewable diesel, the production capacity that they're going to have, it seems like the offset is going to be reduced exports. And I think China is certainly moving in a direction there to distance itself from the US.

China is part of other countries that are attempting to, to minimize the global dependency on the US dollar and ultimately trying to remove the US dollar as the sole reserve currency of the world. And I think that's another example of them trying to distance themselves from the US. And I think you constantly have other factors that come up where there's extreme tension, whether it's trade issues or patent infringement or new developments like with the Ukraine-Russia war and China clearly taking Russia's side on this, which creates friction. I don't know what it takes to improve US relations with China, but it seems to me that we're on a pathway where they're going to continue to diminish.

And more importantly, I think, is the fact that China is, is working very aggressively to solidify relationships with Brazil, Argentina, trying to get more production there, trying to get their hand in the transportation to provide funding, expertise, uh, whatever it takes for relationships there. All that stuff looks like it's long-term, not supportive for US market share.

Chris

Barron: Mhm. Kind of the last thing I want to hit on, we'll wrap it up, is, you know, we've hit on a bunch of stuff here, but, um, I had a bank meeting yesterday, um, kind of did our— Shay did a podcast on the state of the business address, and we did our state of the farm address yesterday with our lender and stuff and got some interesting perspective from them. But, you know, you know, one, one said, you know, we're going to see 3 more rate hikes. The other one's like, I'm not sure. And the one thing that is for sure is interest rates are significantly higher now than they were a year ago. We see a lot of line of credit levels in that, you know, high 6s to, to 9, and, and there's a big range in there, of course. But do you see these interest rates continuing to climb a little bit? What's your perspective there?

And it seems like, you know, from what we see, inflation's slowed down a little bit, but it's definitely not stopped. And so what's your perspective as we wrap up here on inflation and interest rates and the Fed?

Duane

Lowry: Inflation, or excuse me, interest rates probably climb a little bit, and I would focus on the phrase a little bit, and then I think they probably level off. And so I don't think interest rates get significantly worse, but they're going to probably get a little bit higher. I think the Fed is having success fighting inflation, and when we get reports out that say that, well, we still have inflation, it's higher than we thought, or etc., I think there's a lag time between, uh, when this interest impact kicks in and has the, the longer-term effect on some of these indicators. And so I think the Fed will reach a point very soon where they're going to be content to kind of wait and see how things unfold. And I think that then you'll start to see some correction in these, in the, in the inflation rate.

But when it comes to the ag market perspective, I think we have to ask ourselves, might we be at new plateaus for prices where we have found a new range, just like we did in the '70s and we've seen happen before, like we had when ethanol became a bigger thing after George Bush's State of the Union. It was 2005, give or take, where we really ramped up the consumption of corn through ethanol and kind of changed the whole price structure of, of all the commodities. I wonder if we don't have a similar effect that's taking place now. And just to throw out some wide figures, you know, for a long time, $30 crude oil was kind of the bottom side of the parameters.

What if the bottom side of the parameters— if we were to go forward 10 years and look back on what things look like over that 10-year period, I wonder if we're going to find that the $65 or $60 to $80 range in crude oil doesn't become the bottom side of energy prices. If that statement happened to be true, when you looked back 10 years from now and how the previous 10 years looked, and if that statement happened to be true, that represents a new price structure for agricultural markets, probably a new price structure for everything. And so, um, I think that we have to ponder whether that's going to be the case. I think there's a strong argument that case can be made because in, uh, over the last several months, if not more than a year, there's been widespread anticipation of a recession, uh, possibly turning into a depression because of inflation, interest rates, et cetera.

And, um, that may well prove to be true. But so far you can't really say it is true. The job market still is tight. You can open up any newspaper, you can drive down the road, you can walk down the sidewalk and see job openings, job available. We're now hiring. The job market doesn't reflect this recession, depression talk. And the stock market has at different points responded to that, had a sell-off, and we're still well off the highs in the stock market. But we haven't really crashed. We've kind of been marking time up here. Now, some sort of a major sell-off might still be ahead of us, but all of this seems to me like we're going to get used to a higher priced structure than we've had because of the inflation that we've seen.

And the cynical side of me wants to point out something that I would have said 2 years ago, 3 years ago, any time that in the end The only way the US government, the Federal Reserve, the balance sheet, the global, all these countries' balance sheets ever survive with the amount of debt that they have is they have to inflate their way out of this. And maybe that is not a rampant inflation, but maybe it's just like I've described. We take things to a new price level. We have wages higher, therefore income is higher. But this debt they have is fixed. And that's how they— that's their only way out of this. So I think in the end, we're going to see the higher price structures develop over time. And I think we are in the process of having experienced one of those right now. And we are going to over the next 12 months maybe find out what is the new bottom side of these, this new price level.

And if I were to look into the crystal ball and say that, you know, $4.50 to $4.80 corn is going to be the new bottom side, that's going to be the new, I don't know, $3.20 to $3.50 price range. And maybe beans, the new bottom side is going to be something in that $10 mark instead of being something in the $7 mark. And I think that's what we're dealing with. And on the big picture, when you start talking about the Fed inflation, you know, we're trying to figure out how that impacts us. I don't think we're going to go back to $3 corn or anything like that. I think it's going to be a new price level that we're finding.

And if we have favorable acres in the US, and if we have returned to some trendline production without the type of, you know, large footprint of of, uh, production problems that we saw the last 2 years, we, we're probably at risk of getting some big corn yield that's well above the trend. I don't even know what the official trend line will be this year, but say it's 178, give or take, and some people might say it could be higher than that. Let's say we threw about 181 yield in corn on a given year. What if we got bean yields back to, to up to say 53 or 50 4. I don't think either of those statements are impossible. They're very plausible. And considering the large geographic footprint of problems we've had each of the past 2 years, our yields have been actually much better than people would have anticipated with the same weather, say, 10 or more years ago.

So I think it's possible that we could get— a sizable increase in ending stocks in both corn and beans, and have a period of time where we're going to test out what is this new bottom threshold. And if I said it was $4.50 to $5 corn, it was $10 or $11 soybeans, that might sound like that's a pretty good bottom side. But like you said, look at the cost structure you've had for the 2023 crop. And nobody's going to want to get to the bottom side of these price parameters that I just mentioned, which are still well above lows in the bottom recent 10 years, it would still be well above those levels. But it would be a disaster to your farm operation if you sold your crops in those levels. And I think that's kind of what the producer has to try to analyze and ponder. Is with these high of inputs that I've got, which are fixed, they're not going to go any lower.

Do I really want to take a lot of risk? And that's what we have with these prices. They represent a lot of risk. And even if we go down to find those bottom side levels are still well above where we've been. It represents at least $200 an acre of revenue decline in corn from where it's at now., it represents probably $150 to $200 an acre decline versus what's being offered now for beans. And that we have to be reminded that the price swings of our revenue calculations are so much greater at these prices than they were in all the prices we found from 2014 to 2020, basically, you know, then if you had a $50 swing in your revenue calculations, it might be, you know, quite a bit. Now you're dealing with something that could easily be 200. And that's why the management decision, the risk management decision, I think needs to be viewed differently.

It needs to have greater respect, and it probably needs to be more skewed towards protecting what is offered than worrying about what might— you might miss out on.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, I think that's good advice. I mean, as we wrap up here, you know, the, the average-ish, right, right now, the average that we see is that $5.19 cost of production on corn with, with the 5-year expected average yield for our clients currently, and we're at about $13 on cost of production for soybeans. So that means that, you know, for the most part, about a 80, 75 to 80 cent drop on both corn and soybeans gets us back to breakeven. So the market doesn't have to come back off, off of where it is right now very much. And all of a sudden, you're right back at breakeven. It's just interesting how the market always finds its way back to our cost of production at some point.

Duane

Lowry: So it's— and you know, the other thing is, if the market wants to find its way back to a different level, a, a level that is weighing on inflationary pressures. It oftentimes, and I'm sure you'll agree to this, that doesn't stop at the cost of production. It will exaggerate and get below your cost of production. And that's what we have to be concerned about. Right. So there's, there's plenty of things for producers to ponder.

Chris

Barron: Yep. That's for sure. There's a lot to manage and, and yet a lot of really good stuff in this conversation. So hopefully people made it all the way to the end here because you covered a lot of stuff. I mean, we covered acreage, we covered South America, we covered Ukraine, Russian war, US-China relations, or, or not, I guess, whatever you want to call that, that we're working on now with balloons and crazy stuff. And then inflation, interest rates, the Fed, and just managing our margins, which is the bottom line. So Duane, as usual, we haven't had you on for a while, we can get you back here a little more often, really appreciate expertise and your, your knowledge and, hope you have a good week.

Duane

Lowry: Well, I usually you ask me, do you have one final thought? So, would you like me to ask that? I said, you usually ask me if I have one final thought, so I need you to ask me that question.

Chris

Barron: Okay. What's, what's your one final thought?

Duane

Lowry: I would want, I would like to, have producers ponder the possibility, that we have opportunities for a near-term price bump. I won't say a big huge rally, I don't want to imply that, but just a price bump. And that bump could maybe take Dec '23 corn back to $6.20, $6.25, something like that. It might be able to take November beans, you know, up 50 cents from where they are right now, maybe more. I'm not sure how the spreads play out, but there's still a potential for an acreage discussion here. And I, I would like to encourage producers to ponder the possibility that if we get a near-term bump, the focus should be not— excuse me, the focus should not be that if we get these bumps, then imagine what we'll get if there's a summer weather concern. I think the near-term bump should be seen as an opportunity to protect against some of the things we just talked about.

And not to get too caught up in it. The market has still got a lot of, uh, large spec longs in it that are very vulnerable to at, at some point being forced out of those positions. Um, but that might be something that happens during the summer and, uh, as we finish the growing season. Um, but I would like to encourage producers to really reflect upon the amount of risk they have, the fixed input costs, the profit opportunities offered. And if we get a near-term bump, to see that as a great opportunity to be proactive in trying to remove some risk here. There's going to come a point sometime, maybe it's the '23 production, maybe it's '24, maybe it's both, where profitability, uh, will be much more challenging than what is we've seen in the last few years and what's offered in '23.

Chris

Barron: Yeah.

Duane

Lowry: And so if you can capture and make sure '23 is another good year, it really sets you up to be much better prepared, uh, for, uh, a more challenging year to find a profit that might lie ahead. And we've all been around agriculture long enough to know that it is cyclical and no matter how good it may appear on a, at a given time, You're only one crop cycle away from changing the dynamics and all of a sudden you're experiencing something different and something more challenging. And agriculture is just known to have those. And I don't think there's any reason we should think that we're not gonna be vulnerable to the same again.

Chris

Barron: Yeah. And just because what happened last year doesn't mean that's how you should calibrate how you're gonna market in, in the next year. Every year's, every year's got its own set of, challenges and, and issues and conditions. And we have to weigh all those and make those decisions in the year we're in, not, not what happened in the past or, or, uh, you know, you gotta respect what is offered, you know, every year it's a battle.

Duane

Lowry: And, uh, every year there are entities that are, are out to get you. And when, uh, you're in agriculture and you've got profitability and, you know, quite good profitable return opportunities per acre versus, you know, many of the last 20 years, then you have to feel like you've got a target on your back. And the Fed, if they're going to fight inflation, the two places they have to do it are energy and agriculture. And energy is well off of its highs. It's probably stabilized. We've probably seen the bottom side of where it's going to be. The biggest elephant in the room, so to speak, to fight inflation that really hasn't come under severe attack yet is agriculture. And I think that we should expect that we're going to be under attack.

And I think the first opportunity we have, where the market conditions, the weather, the acres, whatever, create a rising carryout, I think the marketplace is going to take an abrupt and, and, uh, fairly deep reaction to that.

Chris

Barron: Mm-hmm.

Duane

Lowry: And 2023, if you, you know, we, the slate's clean, we're starting over. And, uh, trendline yields a few more acres here or there, and all of a sudden, you know, um, it's not difficult to come up with that scenario where carryout levels rise.

Chris

Barron: Yeah. Awesome, Duane. Like I said, really good, good comments. I appreciate the, the last, last opportunity there for your final thoughts. And again, as usual, really good info. So we'll get you back and we'll kind of check things out here. And again, we'll see how this crop insurance thing shakes out and, and we'll continue from there. But really appreciate your content and thanks a lot, Dwayne.

Duane

Lowry: Thank you, Chris.

Chris

Barron: You bet. And thanks everybody for listening. And we will Be back again next week in another normal week as we head into the month of March next week, and we'll catch you next time on the Ag View Pitch.