What's up with these grain markets?

Narrator: Thank you for listening to the Weekly Market Outlook. It is our pleasure to bring an industry-leading market analyst to provide you with the most value possible in your farm business. Please reach out anytime by emailing cbarron@agviewsolutions.com.

Chris

Barron: Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we are going to have another marketing conversation here as we head into the final week of April, and we're Lucky today to have Mark Welch with us, who is the Grain Marketing Economist at Texas A&M, the AgriLife Extension Service. So welcome, Mark, and how's it going today?

Mark

Welch: Chris, appreciate the opportunity to visit here today, and great to be with you.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, it's good to have you here. And so as we talk today, I know there's pockets of the country that last week got some snow, there's some areas that got some rain, and there's some areas that have been praying for rain, wish they would have gotten it gotten it. And so there's definitely some weather that's been playing in the market here, you know, and also cold temperatures, which you guys in Texas experienced that a few months ago, I know. And, you know, and so just was wondering from a market standpoint, as we get started in the conversation here, what's your thoughts on what's going on with the weather and the impact on that that that might be having right now?

Mark

Welch: Well, uh, I think you touched on a couple of key points there, uh, Chris, that are underpinning or adding support to this, uh, you know, strong move that we're seeing across the grain markets, uh, whether we're talking about, you know, corn or soybeans or wheat. Uh, we're of course coming out of the, the old crop year with, uh, some very tight or tightening supply situations. And, and so then the market is looking for some kind of direction or perhaps reassurance in terms of a supply rebound going into the new crop year. And there are some major questions out there, you know, starting with the Prospective Plantings Report that, you know, back at the end of March, we didn't get the acres that we thought we were going to see starting out there as a planting base here in the U.S. Now, wheat was up a little bit, but certainly not in corn and beans like the market was anticipating.

And then overlay exactly what you were saying. We've had some very challenging springs last 2 years in a row, and this year is bringing its own set of challenges. Uh, it was too wet in areas, it's much too dry in others. The temperature certainly hasn't moderated out to a point of an open planting season, uh, so there's some, some real concern. Are we going to get the crop in at all? Is it going to be in a timely manner? And then all those factors that, uh, you know, influence the production levels down the road. Throw in South America And the same kind of issues down there, too, too wet, crop going in too late. Is it going to get too dry? Is that going to limit, you know, what that production number is going to be at the end, specifically in Brazil with their, you know, second corn crop? There is so much that is unknown, and, uh, and these markets have just taken off like a rocket.

And so I think until we get some, some clarity and remove some of that uncertainty out there, uh, it certainly is an exciting time to be watching the corn market.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, for sure. And, and, um, I guess a couple of things, and I'll come back to some other questions here, but I do want to ask you, you know, um, probably the question that everybody's thinking is, as we look back at last week, we did have that, uh, that one day— I can't remember what day that was— we had limit up. Was that Thursday? I think.

Mark

Welch: I believe that's correct.

Chris

Barron: So, you know, there was a lot of questions like, what's going on here? You know, so is it— is that just a culmination of all the things, all the above, that, that, you know, drove it that day? Or was there anything in particular that kind of stuck out?

Mark

Welch: You know, it's, uh, it's hard, hard to say, you know, a single thing. Now again, back to the perspective, plantings report on March 31st, we were limit up, uh, beans and corn that day, and that was a specific report for a specific number. But, uh, you know, otherwise I think this this trade has just captured this upward momentum. And it just seems that any piece of news that we're seeing across the wire seems to be, again, adding to that bullish fire. Then you add the component of the degree to which speculators in the market are at the longest position since The Futures Trading Commission has been reporting these numbers, record net longs in terms of bullish bets on corn, and it seems every little piece then just fuels that fire. And so, yeah, it's hard to point to a single thing.

It just seems at this point when these markets get rolling like this, again, it just seems like everything contributes to off we go, just higher, higher, higher. There, there will be factors that will change that. It will turn. Uh, and again, I think it's, uh, important to kind of keep our eye on a, on a bigger picture of, uh, of what that might, uh, what those factors might be, uh, because they, they, they will re-enter this market.

Chris

Barron: What's going to pull the funds out of it, do you think? I mean, that it just seems like they just keep feeding into this, and it's almost like the snowball going down the hill, you know. They just keep they just keep entering the market here and it just keeps surprising us almost weekly.

Mark

Welch: It is just incredible, the strength of those positions. And of course, I can't say, I can't read into that mind of— and then as a group, but the things that tend to drive those investors and those participants in our markets, which we're so thankful they're there. I'm not trying to disparage their participation at all. Because of the activity that they bring to our market can be very frustrating. But in this case, you know, driving these prices higher and giving us pricing opportunities, and I'm sure we'll talk about this not only in the near term but for the '21 crop and then look even beyond, right, what these pricing opportunities are creating for us, even looking out to 2022. But the factors that will drive these markets by these participants, of course, they're profit-driven..

And so at the point that they are prepared to take those profits for whatever reason that might be, would that create some kind of a price setback? Watching the technical aspect of the markets, and I'm not a great technician, but yet I think we understand that many of the participants in our markets do watch those technical signals. And so if we do see some degree of an oversold situation, uh, or in this case be an overbought situation at the top of a market. Uh, market's losing momentum for whatever reason, uh, and, and then those, those technical setbacks or retracements, uh, can be significant. If we're at, uh, you know, corn where it's trading now, uh, take a, uh, a 33-38% retracement off of that price. That's been a significant move But yet in the technical world, that's the kind of move you would expect. It would be very typical. So again, as a farmer, that can be very frustrating.

But I think it is good to kind of peek into that world of the speculative investor from time to time just to see what drives and what action might be typical within that world, just to be aware of the volatility that these markets can still possess. Yeah, we've just been straight up for several weeks. Uh, it will not continue, right?

Chris

Barron: A question for you, I guess, that, that I'm thinking here now, and, and having talked to you offline a little bit before the recording here, um, is there a year that kind of matches up with this year that, that you can look to and say, here are some probabilities of what this thing might be might be doing where we're at right now. And, you know, because I think it, you know, it gets harder and harder the higher the market goes, the harder it is to market. It seems like, you know, when we're down in these lower levels, it's a little easier to reward a rally, but you don't know, you know, when does the rally end or what's this thing do. So, right, I guess, is there, is there a year that, that kind of stands out that might give you a little insight?

Mark

Welch: You know, it's really interesting that, uh, so many of the parallels between what's happening right now as we're, uh, here wrapping up in the old crop corn for the 2020 crop, the comparisons to 2013. That year we ended up with a— the stocks-to-use ratio that I like to use is days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year. So you take that pile of grain that's left on August 31st, well, how long can we live next year on the corn that was left over last year? Well, in 2013 we ended up the year with a 33-day supply of corn. And this current estimate back in the April WASDE with USDA revised numbers, we're sitting at a 33-day supply of corn. Hmm. And then what I think is so interesting then is to look on either side of 2015. So what was happening in 2012? What happened in 2014?

And maybe that provides kind of some bookends of what some possibilities might look like here in 2020 as we go into 2021. And of course, 2012 was all-time record high corn prices. The season average farm price reported by USDA that year was $6.89 a bushel in a 27-day supply of corn. I mean, that is tight and all-time record high corn prices. So that's going back one year, right? So that's if we do have a shortfall this year, what kind of possibilities be? Could we be at record high corn prices for the '21 crop? I don't think there's a question about it. However, what happened in 2014? Well, we made a crop. Uh, the, uh, the, the days of use on hand went from 33 to 46. The season average corn price in 2014 was $3.70 a bushel.

So, you know, I think that just gives us a little bit of perspective that, yes, acres, weather, export consumption— we have so many factors that are going to play into the that supply and demand balance sheet and how that ending stock number plays out. But just as an indication of what kind of some swings might be, I think, I think the '21 crop certainly is kind of shaping up to be one of those on, on a tipping point kind of years. Yeah, if it's tight, record high prices are certainly on the table. If we make a crop and we get the acres, can we see corn back below $4? In a heartbeat. So I think it's just a little perspective of, uh, and I don't know if that makes the marketing any easier or not, but perhaps it reassures us a little bit. You know, I'm pricing some corn, uh, you know, well over $5 a bushel. How many times in my farming career has that been a bad move?

Has that been a mistake? Or whatever I price at this level, if that's the worst price I get, uh, what's the financial consequence going to be from operation if that's the worst sale that I make. And maybe that helps a little bit and maybe go ahead and get a little something done as, as this market has just shot up.

Chris

Barron: I think the hard part for some of us is there's sales already on the books, and anytime you're making— you make a sale in a— during a rally, it— every sale you've made looks bad, you know. And so you, you know, so we almost got to like recalibrate our thinking But then on the same token, you know, I remember 2012 working with some clients in Indiana that year that were on the cash market. They were, you know, 40% sold this time of year, and in the end, with the way the yields turned out, they were over 100% sold. And so, you know, so part of that is, is, is figuring out, you know, what— to what degree should you be sold at a given time during the course of the of the season. And, and, you know, what, what's your risk tolerance level? What's your crop insurance? And there's obviously a lot of factors there, but definitely a lot to, a lot to digest and think about.

What about basis too? Not so much on old crop. I think a lot of producers have really good basis opportunities right now, and there's not much of that left. But I want to hit on the '21 crop. If, if a producer is making a sale on the '21 crop corn or beans, and you can hit both of them. But, you know, do you, do you think a person should be locking basis in, in certain areas, or, or just doing HTAs, or maybe doing some stuff on the board? What, what's your thought there, or some options?

Mark

Welch: You bet. And I think you touched on such an excellent point when it comes to marketing. You know, so many times when we talk about, you know, the price of corn and marketing what's December corn on the board trading at, and that's the price of corn. Well, that's, that's not the price of corn. That's a piece of it, a major piece of it, but then you also have to account, of course, for your local basis. Where is that corn actually going to be delivered, and then what is the price, of course, there, that delivered price relative to whatever's going on on the board. And yes, in these tight crop years, we tend to see, you know, some really good basis opportunities., which even compounds these higher prices with a positive basis and creates some great marketing opportunities for us.

And I think one commentary that I'm reading more and more, not only from persons that are trading advisors and more of your broker-type participants in our market, but also from the commercial side of the market, is keep your eye on the basis. 'Cause that is one of the factors that reveals the real market for corn in terms of those that are actually going to be, you know, using that grain and the supply and demand factors in your local market, whether that's your ethanol plant or your feedlot or the port or wherever it might be that your grain is going. That basis reveals and reflects the supply and demand conditions in your local market. Uh, so first of all, you need, of course, what is the historical, uh, basis level wherever you deliver. You've got to know that. And so are we above or below that? Do we have a weak or strong basis?

And is that new crop bid weak or strong relative to those historical standards? Uh, that gives you some degree of market information. But if we are to see some indication that the market conditions are shifting such that either supply response or maybe backing off on some of our consumption and demand numbers, to use that word, uh, it's going to be reflected in the basis. And so if you're getting that, uh, that weak basis bid relative to where we are now or relative to historical standards, that would seem to indicate that from whoever is buying your grain that they are anticipating, we're not that worried about getting supplies we think we're going to need. We think we're going to have enough grain. Now, whether they're right or wrong, time will tell. But that does reveal something about the mindset of our market participants, and we need to take that into account.

And so for a person making that decision, do I want to lock in the basis right now? And that's a, that's a very excellent question to ask. Yes, I've got, I got two pieces of my marketing. I've got what's happening on the board and what's happening with the basis. Am I ready to lock in both of those? I think these are great questions to ask and have those conversations about what are the likelihoods of that basis piece getting stronger or weaker. And typically, if we make a crop, one of the, the first indications of as the market does begin to shift, to tip, trends begin to change, it'll be reflected in the basis as well. And so that's, I think, a key point. Farmers need to have that conversation and that awareness of what's going on with the basis.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, just, it looks like to me that in a lot of areas, and it's not everywhere, but it looks like in a lot of areas leaving that basis untouched for the time being is probably, especially if you've got storage and if you can communicate to your end user and say, well, I'll bring it to you when you want it, basically, you know. Yeah, so you can, you know, if you have it, if you're doing, say, Dec '21 corn or no soybeans, you know, '21 soybeans, and just doing like a hedge to arrive or selling it on the board, whatever you're comfortable with, but leaving that basis open for the next month or two, it looks like, you know, we're gonna be a little smarter, you know, here as time goes on. Would you agree with that?

Mark

Welch: I would. And there again, you touched on a very key point that you're, you're communicating with, uh, you know, an outlet or a merchandiser for your grain, uh, of someone that you have this relationship with, that, uh, they know that you've got the grain, you're ready. If— and having the value that you can add not only to your own operation by maximizing your basis, but the value that creates for whoever's buying your grain that they know they have a ready access to deliverable supplies that they can meet, you know, the needs that they will have as this market unfolds and evolves as well. So yeah, what a great relationship that enhances the value proposition of both participants. And I think that is the key to managing, you know, when there's, like you just said, and these markets are going crazy, what do you do?

Well, this is a piece I think that guides us in putting something in place to make some— be able to capitalize on some very excellent marketing opportunities based on what can add value to both of us in this situation.

Narrator: You bet. This is Alyssa with the Ag View Solutions team. Here at Ag View Solutions, we work with farms and ag businesses all across the country on cost of production, business decision-making, collaboration opportunities, farm and ag business structuring, and transition planning. We work with operations of all sizes to help you with the important decisions that need to be made in your business. If you have questions or would like to learn more about how we can help your farm and business, please email us at cbarron@agviewsolutions.com, and thank you for listening.

Chris

Barron: Uh, not to put you on the spot, but I am going to ask a question on corn and soybeans for the '21 crop, where if, if I give you 500 acres of corn and 500 acres of soybeans, and, and, uh, to be fair, you knew that you had those acres, let's say, um, last fall, what percent sold are you comfortable to be at for corn and soybeans at this point?

Mark

Welch: You know, um, we don't have a lot of soybeans in Texas. Uh, and so I'm not going to jump into that one.

Chris

Barron: I'm giving you Iowa, I'm giving you Iowa or Illinois acres.

Mark

Welch: All right, very good. Um, but typically in, uh, in my, you know, corn or, or my beans, if you look at the, the long-term, you know, seasonal patterns in these markets, and obviously they don't hold every year, they didn't hold in 2020, right? Uh, but if you— where, where are typically your best pricing opportunities? And they occur this time of year as we move into April and May and then into June. And why is that? Well, there's of course the agronomic reasons of why. We're still uncertain about acres. We're certainly uncertain about yield, what the weather is going to be as we play out through the spring and summer. There's so much uncertainty in this market. And then as we get into the middle of June and beyond, well, we pretty well know the acres. That's pretty well set. And we've got a pretty good handle on the weather currently, how, how the crop looks like right now.

And we're looking at some projections now into August and September of wrapping the crop up. You got an outlook of the weather. And so that's when you typically see prices tend to fall pretty strongly as we get to around the 1st of July. So in my marketing plan, I want to have 60% of my crop sold by the time we get to the 4th of July. That just as a rule of thumb, typically speaking, those are when you're better opportunities. My 100%, no. Whether years, it'd be good to have 100% most of the time. But, but we are, we are at, as we talked about, we're so much unknown right now. This '21 crop, yeah, record high corn prices are a definite possibility given how tight things are. Is it the most likely probability? I would say, I would say no at this point.

Do I think acres from the Prospective Plantings report that we had March 31st, corn acres, do I think they're going to go up or down by the time we get to June acreage report? I think the likelihood is we're going to see more corn acres if the spring allows. Trendline yield, 177 bushels per acre. Are we likely to see above or below that in 2021? Yeah, I think it's maybe a tough call right now.. But in most years, uh, we have an above trendline yield. Uh, that's, uh, just if you look at just, just the raw numbers, right? So if I, if I crowd the acres up a little bit, crowd the, uh, the yield up just a little bit, uh, that's gonna produce more corn and raise our ending stocks level. If, if use stays the same next year as it does this year, that will add a little bit to ending stocks. Just those two factors: increasing acres a little bit, increasing that yield a little bit.

And we'll have corn above the level that we're using here in the old crop year. So, uh, does that crater the market? Absolutely not. Does it keep us out of record high territory? Yeah, probably so. And so again, those are the kind of factors that, that I weigh in terms of making those marketing decisions. So am I rewarding this market with some sales as we're, uh, tracking up? You bet. Uh, and so if I got to 50 to 60% somewhere along in there as we get toward the acreage report in June. Yeah, I feel pretty good about that. And then manage those opportunities for the next half of the year. And if I get to the point I've sold everything I've committed in 2021 that I'm comfortable selling, which is never 100%, uh, but say I finish that and the market continues to go higher, I've got a '22 crop that, uh, that I'm willing to sell too.

So again, if I've left something on the table in this old crop year, that's a good place to be. That means your prices for that next opportunity are better and better and better. If I, if I miss those opportunities, the market has turned and it's lower and lower, it's pulling everything down. And so again, trying to manage again the emotions that get tied up in the market. Yeah, that stuff I priced too early, was it too cheap? Yeah, you bet. But is the marketing providing me more opportunity, more profitable pricing opportunities, uh, given what's happened since? You bet. And that's the world I would rather be in, uh, rather than one of it's just down, down, down, and you're just trying to stop the bleeding.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, yeah, we've got a few guys that bought calls as they were making some sales along the way, which has looked good. Um, but there's also the question at this point, you know, the prices are so good Do you, do you buy a call on $5.50 corn, you know, or I mean, do you spend the money or do you just stick a fork in it and call that sale good enough, you know? I mean, I mean, we could, I mean, you, you could argue a case, I suppose, for $8 corn, and you can argue a case for probably $3.50 corn, and the odds are pretty slim on either end of that spectrum. But, but, you know, that's where I, you know, it's, that's a tough call. I, there are a lot of people say, you know, you should be buying calls on those Do you agree with that, or what's your thought?

Mark

Welch: You know, options can be so expensive, and of course volatility adds to the premium. And so I'm, you know, I'm not a— just as a normal course of a marketing plan, don't use a lot of options. If that's the only way I'm going to make a sale, yes, then yes, absolutely, right? You know, utilize if you just can't lock it in without maintaining a little opportunity in the market if it keeps going higher. Uh, yes, do that if you're— if that's what— otherwise you wouldn't do anything. Uh, I think that's a very important consideration to include.

Chris

Barron: Sure.

Mark

Welch: Uh, but as you just mentioned, uh, a sale at $5.50— and, and again, we're not talking about 100% of a corn crop, right? I don't know, you're talking about, you know, 5, 10, 20%, whatever level you're at, right?

Chris

Barron: 3 to 5, 7, you know, the, the, the sale— as the market goes up, the sales get smaller too, you know.

Mark

Welch: Isn't that crazy? Yeah, exactly. Exactly. And I think another important feature to understand about yourself when it comes to marketing— okay, so it's $5.50 today, and let's say you, you, uh, you know, I'm not going to sell because I think it's going to go higher. Well, it's $5, uh, let's, let's say it's $5 by the time we get to next week. Are you going to sell it then? How about $4.50? If it starts coming down Well, okay, now I'll make those sales. Or is our mindset, well, I'll sell it next time it gets back up to $550,000.

Chris

Barron: And sometimes next time never comes.

Mark

Welch: And so many times we never see that next time. So again, just managing how we make marketing decisions. I'm a person that's just personally more comfortable marketing, scaling up into a market rather than trying to catch that knife as it's falling off the table. Right.

Chris

Barron: Well, we've, what we've seen this year is a lot of people putting offers in and they've just all been hitting, right? I mean, they, they— it's amazing. I mean, I, I did that the other day on some beans, put an offer in 45 cents up, and then the very next day they're hit. You know, it's, it's been crazy. But, but I think a person's just got to keep putting those in, especially when we're busy plant— you know, we're getting this last week of April, the next 3, 4, 5 weeks, we're all going to be super busy. I think just the idea of putting those in and then just take it because your mind's going to be off of it anyway. To a degree. And when it's this high, it changes things. But, um, I want to get to one last question here. We're getting up against time, but one last thing I want to pick on you with is the '22 sales.

You mentioned that, um, we're looking at Dec '22 corn at $4.88 and November at $11.95 as we record here over the weekend. And who knows, as we, as we're in this next week, this last week of April, as, as each day, you know, chops away here, kind of what we see. But one thing I do want to point out is I did some math on our Profit Manager system, and I just took what the fertilizer price increases were to date as of right now. I plugged in an extra $10 an acre for land. I plugged in an extra $5 an acre for cost of living, which isn't a lot, probably should have done more. I think it was like $7 or $8 an acre, if I remember right, on machinery and equipment. We had a couple bucks on crop protection, and we had like $5 on seed. And, and that's corn as an example. But you add all that up on corn, it was 48 cents a bushel price increase on 200-bushel corn.

So that really changes, uh, how, how a person needs to look at 2022. 2022. But yet I still think we need to look at it. And, and I did the same math on soybeans using our client data averages, and we saw about $1.07 per bushel price increase. But, you know, that also tells me that, you know, we're at levels pretty close now. I mean, especially if we get to $5, that's gonna that's going to help producers. Even with that 50-cent, let's say, cost of production increase, you're still going to enjoy a similar profit level to what the opportunity is here now, unless that those prices further go up. That's the— that's, I think, the unknown and the hesitation that I hear from a lot of our clients. Any perspective on the '22, having said all that, that, that you've feel is good practice?

Mark

Welch: Well, I think you certainly have a good practice. Exactly what you just outlined is trying to anticipate if you factor in some of these cost elements into what that budget's going to look like for 2022. And of course, we also know that those prices, of course, will respond to market conditions. They certainly have as the market's gone up, but they get awful sticky when the market comes down.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, exactly.

Mark

Welch: So if we do see lower corn prices, those prices on the input side are not going to adjust back down as quickly as we could see, uh, of course, something on the output side. Uh, and, and what a great perspective of plugging those numbers in, comparing that to what the marketing opportunities are providing from what we know today with all the uncertainty around that, how far out that, that is. But, uh, you're talking about management costs, living all those kind of factors, and you're still able to plug in— or are you able to plug in some degree of a profit margin that we can't always do preseason every year after year after year? How comfortable would we be doing that year to year to year if we could? And that doesn't occur that often, right?

And so again, getting a portion of sales, doing exactly what you've done, locking in a profit You know, margin, is it, is it 5, is it 10, is it 15%? And gosh, you can do that a year and a half ahead. Uh, you know, how often have we been able to do that, uh, you know, going into a season? It doesn't happen very often. And again, if that's the worst sale that you make, if that was, that's the, that's the most you leave on the table was that grain you sold at $4.88 a bushel, uh, then What does the rest of that year look like? What does that other 90% of sales look like if that $488 was the worst that you made? Uh, you know, that's, that's not, that's not a bad place to be.

Chris

Barron: Yeah.

Mark

Welch: Uh, and, and again, I think it just gets us in the mindset of capturing profitable marketing opportunities that, that many times we, we let get away too often. And, uh, and I think the more that we can incorporate Removing some of that price uncertainty and that price risk. Again, I think that secures our financial situation rather than leaves us more vulnerable to the vagrancies of the market. We had a good price, we locked it in. Did it go higher? Did it go lower? I don't know what it's going to do, but even whatever it does, was that a good price at that time for what we knew? Yeah. And that's never a bad place to be.

Chris

Barron: Okay, my last, last question, and we'll make this one quick. I'm gonna throw it at you. Inflation. Obviously inflation is probably something that's on everybody's mind in business. Is this, you know, are the funds in here for an inflation hedge? Are they there to stay for a while? Stock market? Give me your last 1-minute observation of your crystal ball, I guess?

Mark

Welch: You know, I don't know that they're in for— in terms of an inflation hedge, yes, possibly, because commodities are a great place to be. But, you know, the stock market is still a great place to be, right? Also, real estate is a great place to be. You know, there's a lot of investment opportunities right now, I think, from that community. And the longer-term economic prospects through 2021 are certainly very positive for the rest of the year. We're looking at economic economic growth outlook of 6% here in the US. Now, then, go probably backing off of that as the, as we do create some degree of normalcy after the pandemic. But I think for the, the '21 outlook, the, the investment possibilities are very positive in several factors. So I don't think it's, it's just a, a commodity picture creating a bubble situation. I don't see that kind of overenthusiasm.

I think it's just a response to pretty favorable investment climate right now, and commodities happen to be one of them, corn and grains specifically. But if you look more broadly at commodities, you know, what about energy? What about livestock? Yeah, they're okay, but they're not booming like we're seeing in the grains. So it's not, I don't think, a broad base yet, but I think it reflects an overall favorable economic climate, which is, which is good for agriculture and certainly creating us some, some very favorable pricing opportunities right now for farming.

Chris

Barron: Hey, I appreciate the conversation, Mark. This was really good. We went a little longer than we normally do, but you had a lot of good, good comments. I think this is a great conversation, and I'd like to have you back again sometime soon if that works for you.

Mark

Welch: You bet, Chris. Always enjoy the conversation and enjoy being with you.

Chris

Barron: You bet, you bet. And so again, this is Mark Welch, the grain marketing economist with Texas A&M and AgriLife Extension Service. And so Mark, thanks again, really appreciate it.

Mark

Welch: You bet, Chris, take care.

Chris

Barron: You bet. And thanks everybody for listening, and we will catch you again next time on the Ag View Pitch.