Weekly market outlook: Dec. 27-31st - putting a bow on 2021 markets

Chris

Barron: Thank you for listening to the Weekly Market Outlook. It is our pleasure to bring an industry-leading market analyst to provide you with the most value possible in your farm business. Please reach out anytime by emailing cbarron@agviewsolutions.com. Hey everybody, just want to say a special thanks to Jared Creed with J.C. Marketing and Pete Meyer with SNP Global Platts. This is a great conversation and headed your way here now. Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we are heading into the end of the year here now and recording this right in front of Christmas. You'll probably be listening to this after Christmas. So how are you guys today? We got Pete Meyer and Jared Creed. How are you guys today?

Peter

Meyer: I'm good.

Jarod

Creed: I'll let my elder go first.

Chris

Barron: Oh, there you go.

Peter

Meyer: Oh, it's always nice that the younger understand who they need to respect. So yeah, I'm doing well, Chris. Thanks a lot.

Chris

Barron: Well, good, good. Hey, I'm really glad to have you guys on. So normally, you know, normally I have you guys on one at a time. You guys are both, uh, well acquainted. Um, you guys see eye to eye on a lot of things. I was hoping to, to, uh, get some good conversation here going between the two of you and just some questions on some things that you guys see that farmers really need to be paying attention to as we— you know, wrap up this year. You know, a lot of guys are sitting there now wondering as we go into '22, what's this going to look like? High input costs. You know, we've— we're finishing up the year with some pretty strong price opportunities. So as we go into '22, let's start having a conversation there. And one of you guys can go first. They're pointing at each other here.

Jarod

Creed: I'll give it a whirl, Chris.

Chris

Barron: Okay.

Jarod

Creed: Hey, let's put the farmer hat on first, regardless of kind of opinions on the market. Obviously the opportunity has been presented to price out the balance of the 2021 crop with the price movement in the month of December is rather spectacular considered what we typically experience in the month of November, December after harvest. One of the things that I find interesting is that I think farmer bean movement has been relatively normal, in line with history. But corn movement has been shockingly low with a, you know, a near record, if not a record, U.S. crop, uh, in these kind of prices. Farmer movement very slow. I think we all know plenty of reasons— cash, weather, uh, just had an opportunity to do a tremendous amount of field work. I think what I'm getting at there is we're going to go into the end of the year with a rather long fund position, which is definitely abnormal.

We've definitely got some built-up premium in the South America market from maybe, I don't want to call it benign weather, but a little bit of struggling weather. I think we just got to be aware that this thing can shift on a dime. And it's not like years past where we're used to seeing a managed money position be so short. Rather, you know, they're going to be long close to 1.5 billion bushels of corn in the first week of January, and the farmer is going to have to turn around and sell upwards of 8 to 10 billion bushels over the next 6 to 7 months. So all I'm getting at there is I think we just got to be privy of the idea, uh, farmers typically a market seller. Are we going to have the participation on the other side to absorb whatever farmer selling may come our way?

And also at the same time, do we provide something to the marketplace to, to rock the boat of the current positioning of all the money?

Peter

Meyer: The lack of, the lack of farmer selling has played right into the funds' hands. The funds, uh, given the way that they're, they're trading style with this thing, they are trading the momentum. And they just, they saw an opportunity after the November WASDE and thought, yeah, what the heck, let's get long and they just kept pushing it and pushing it and pushing it and nobody has been in the way here. Sure, it certainly helps that the ethanol margins have been tremendous. But the game changes in January in my opinion regarding old crop. So I'm not really expecting much of a surprise in the WASDE. You know, it just seems that the amount of samples and everything that NASCOT should give us a pretty good idea. If we look on the demand side of things, then you have, you know, I mean, the soybean, soybean exports are still lagging a bit, corn exports are okay, ethanol demand is good.

But outside of that, it's a weather market and it could very well be a weather, a full-blown weather market. But that being said, I mean, what are we talking about in Brazil that maybe 140 million metric tons instead of 144 or 145 in soybeans and, you know, 115, 116 in their corn. I mean, let's not forget that the first crop corn is just for domestic use. The second crop corn, the safrinha crop, hasn't even been planted yet. And that was the crop that got the whole corn market moving last year. So we'll see, it can stay dry, things can happen. But if I'm looking at '22, and I start to look at where my— where '22 prices are, and I look at what my fertilizer costs are, and I look and I see how it pencils in. But the thing that I am watching, and probably very few are watching, because it's not easy to look at, is European electricity prices. Because guess what?

Those miners and those fertilizer producers, fertilizer miners, and everybody that runs businesses over there, we've already seen in some parts of Western Europe, Kiev, and some of these other places that they're on rolling blackouts already. There's no electricity. So what does that do to your manufacturing businesses or your mining businesses? So, I You know, that's, that, that could be supportive to the corn market going in, but, you know, because who knows again, and, and I know Chris, the last time we talked about this as well, it's not the price of fertilizers that bother me. It's going to be the availability of fertilizers come spring.

Chris

Barron: So with that said, you know, from an inflationary perspective, we've continued to see a lot of other factors besides just inflation and crop protection and some other things too. That affect things on all crops, you know. So from an inflationary perspective, do you think the inflation has any correlation to where the commodities are going, or are they going to completely be divorced from just overall inflation that's affecting the economy in general? Either one of you can answer, both.

Peter

Meyer: I would say that once you get a respite in inflation, and that's going to come, Commodities be the first to head straight south.

Jarod

Creed: That's all you got to do is— all you have to do is provide another place for cash that's ultimately getting nothing of a return today to go elsewhere. And commodities is what they're chasing today.

Peter

Meyer: And here we are today, the day before Christmas Eve, the last trading day before Christmas, and the S&P closes at a record high. You know, I mean, there's a lot of other places where people could put their money other than commodities. And, you know, I just, I don't necessarily know. I mean, given the inflationary pressures and that sort of stuff, I mean, do we really think corn has a lot of space to move over $6? Not in my opinion. Do beans maybe have some space to move? Maybe they do. But here again, you know, this is all going to, you know, as I'm fond of saying, and Jared knows this, supply rallies are meant to be sold. Demand rallies are meant to be honored or respected. This is a supply rally. I mean, we're rallying on South American weather.

Okay, if you want to get all excited about 140 million metric ton Brazilian soybean crop, which would be a record by what, 4 or 5 million metric tons, and Chinese soybean demand basically flat year over year.

Jarod

Creed: Okay. Or potentially to get worse.

Chris

Barron: Yeah. Right. And so the time, the timeline as we head into the first week or two of January, sounds like you guys are talking about a whole bunch of risk factors. What are the positive things, or are there other risk factors we haven't even addressed yet?

Peter

Meyer: Well, that's, that's the thing, right? I mean, if you look at If you look at the quote unquote year-end WASDE, I mean, really, the, the only thing that I would be excited about, as I just mentioned, because I, I respect demand rallies, would be a, would be a big jump in, uh, in, in demand. And, and the only place that can come from really at the moment, we've already kind of moved the ethanol demand sector out. The USDA has raised their, their ethanol number. I mean, the only place it can come from at the moment is going to be exports. And exports, you know, yeah, I don't really— I don't— I think it could be a huge disappointment. Maybe if you get a reduction in yield or something like that, you know, you'll get— you may get a knee-jerk higher reaction.

But the fact of the matter is, is that because as I mentioned earlier, especially in corn, the safrinha crop hasn't been planted yet. Is the USDA going to really make that big of a change? To these, uh, to these estimates that they have out there, um, regarding South American production?

Jarod

Creed: No, but I mean, so there's obviously a long, long time to go on a calendar until safrinha corn crop is known, but I think it's important to remember this year as well, our soybean planting pace in Brazil was head and shoulders better than what it was in 2020, which obviously had a huge impact on the safrinha corn crop size. And Chris, to your question on Hey, what— these are all the risks, you know, what's maybe the good side? I'd kind of answer that, that all these risks that we laid out— with risk comes good and bad— uh, that I think these are all the good things that we have going for us right now. Ethanol is the darling of the ag industry, but that story is getting a little old. Yeah, you got a long-term story perhaps in the renewable diesel space, and obviously Pete's the expert in that.

Um, but outside of that, in the dead of the winter what are you looking for beyond Brazilian weather? There's just not much else to do. Maybe you got a little bit of potential surprises from a total acreage mix in the January prospective plantings. But I'm not hanging my hat on that to be, you know, the next catalyst for an additional leg higher from the current prices that we're at, especially in corn. I agree with Pete on beans. If anything, maybe that's the one thing that I feel has a little bit better of a short-term story. I'm not talking about this a long-term deal. I still think that that ratio between corn and beans is something out of whack there, whether market's telling us that we need to plant more corn, uh, or soybeans are just grossly undervalued to corn today.

Peter

Meyer: There's an input gap as far as information is concerned once we get past the January WASDE, right? I mean, and I, I would imagine that with the turn of the calendar year and corn prices were the way they are, if anybody has corn to sell, boy, you're going to see it that first month. Maybe that, you know, unless, unless all of a sudden we go into a deep freeze or something and they can't be delivered, but you know, I don't— yeah.

Chris

Barron: There'll be a lot moving and basis will probably be affected dramatically at that point then, probably, right?

Peter

Meyer: I would, I would think so.

Jarod

Creed: There's a few destinations, not everywhere, but if you make some phone calls to sell cash corn in size and quantity in January, uh, they're gonna more or less try to push you off to February or March, which is a little concerning for me.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, exactly.

Peter

Meyer: So the other concern, the other concern for me, quite honestly, and, and I think some of this has to do with the fact that You know, the corn does pencil in so much better than soybeans in the, uh, for '22 for U.S. producers. And Jared and I talked about this the other day. I mean, you just don't see that jump in December '22 corn, do you? You just don't see it. I mean, it's just lagging so badly.

Chris

Barron: But, you know, that price ratio, we're kind of seeing the same thing. Our average is showing a significantly better opportunity on the corn side, although There are exceptions to that, but not very many. But there are, there are some operations out there that can do better on beans. It's a, it's a yield thing for, for certain growers, you know, that have a higher yield on the soybeans respective to corn. But I have another question for you guys too. You know, we've talked about the inflation, we've talked about, you know, the stock market and the influences there to the You know, to the commodity market. What about interest rates in some of those things? I mean, any, anything there that you guys are watching from an economic standpoint or anything of concern there?

Jarod

Creed: Pete, let me throw out one comment and then I'll let you do the analyzing of his question. I think a farmer just needs to stress test their operation based upon potential higher interest rates long term and a real stress test, you know, considering what can happen in 2022 with higher input costs potentially higher interest rates by the end of the year. Back to Pete's comment about higher interest rates, what can that do towards commodities? And then specifically, I think the million-dollar question today is how do we transition out of '21 and '22 into 2023? That's the biggest question mark for all the operators I work with today. Sorry, Pete, go ahead.

Peter

Meyer: No, that's all right. The dovish nature of the Fed is over, right? I mean, they have no place to go but be hawks. So, you know what I mean? The fact of the matter is, is that here we are sitting here today, we have this Omicron, just, you know, okay, the stock market, the markets got spooked a little bit, oil got spooked a little bit. Now, it's just like they're just dusting it off their back, right? Nobody cares anymore. You've got the highest numbers of infections in many states all over the country, and it's just people are just like, they're tired of. So I don't really think that the Fed has any more room to move to the downside. So now, I'm not saying that they're going to jack rates right away, but I mean, the fact of the matter is that we've been spoon-fed free money for a long period of time. Mm-hmm. And that was basically over before COVID hit.

So to Jared's point, I mean, I think that there were some farmers, and Jared and I remember talking about this, you know, maybe in '19 or something like that, where it looked like interest rates were going to go a little bit higher. And I think Jared had the same conversation, boy, these guys better stress test because you're just used to free money. And now we basically got a 2-year reprieve here with COVID And, you know, that's not— I think Jared's right on it. It might not be '22 or '23. And You know, who knows? I mean, we're not talking about 2-3% increases. But, you know, you're looking at an old guy here that had that his first mortgage in 1980 was 18.5%. Been there, seen that, done it. Okay, whether it be a car, a lease of equipment, the purchase of a home. I mean, you know, I think, I think about it, and just kind of shrug my shoulders.

But there are many people out there who never, never even dealt with that. And again, I'm not saying it's going there, but we've been spoon-fed these— this free money for a long time.

Jarod

Creed: It's not the fact of if and when it goes, it's just the, the, the fear of the what-if. Correct.

Chris

Barron: I think the other threat probably too is— and I think probably, Jared, you're seeing this as well with your clients— is, but we look at the amount of excess working capital that will be required in '22 versus you know, we're coming off of '21 and we've had a pretty strong working capital improvement on the, on the farm. So now we got this extra cash here, and in some cases it's being spent. Some pay, you know, there's a lot of new equipment being purchased, there's a lot of things being bought. Sometimes we don't make the best decisions during good times, and we make pretty good decisions when things aren't so good. And I think there's probably some iffy decisions being made right now with managing that working capital because We're going to have a situation in '22 and '23 where that working capital is going to be a necessity.

And when we look just at '22 right now, our client base on, on a 2,000-acre farm, half corn, half soybeans, it's going to require an extra $270,000 of working capital over last year. Any comments on, on the threat of that and just, you know, what farmers should be thinking about going into this next year and managing that cash?

Peter

Meyer: I will make one comment and I'll let Jared have it. Heated driveways are not a good investment at this point. Go ahead, Jared.

Jarod

Creed: Oh my gosh. All right, good inside joke there. Um, what were we talking about there? Okay, uh, working capital. Working capital.

Peter

Meyer: Sorry, capital. Sorry, Chris.

Jarod

Creed: Uh, so first off, no secret that input costs going higher. Uh, I found it very interesting that as we tie out the books of a lot of producers producers from 2021, from budgeted numbers at the beginning of the year to where we ended, there was plenty of operations that still saw 3 to 5% cost increase throughout the entire year, if not a little bit more actually, $30 to $50 an acre in our reality. And I think that's just a sign of the world around us.

Chris

Barron: Common.

Jarod

Creed: Maybe a little bit more money was thrown at the crop because of good prices and, you know, okay weather in these situations. But nonetheless, our expenses just kept climbing. And where do you see that slowdown going into next year? So, uh, you know, going through some numbers today that are fresh in my mind, uh, some producers that kind of started the year at like a $775 cost per acre on like a 210-215 corn crop, uh, ending the year with about $840 to $845 an acre expense. How high do I put that estimate for next year? I mean, we can get to some of those pieces, but right now we're floating around the idea of conservatively $9.25 to $9.50, with the potential talking about $1,000 an acre for a corn crop. And now you relate that back to working capital.

I think working capital, um, and I guess I'll die on this hill, uh, I think working capital is important, but it's the timing when that stuff turns into cash. And in a 30,000-foot view, we are striving to get through March first half rent payments, going into that with hardly any borrowed money on operating, and hopefully coming out of that with hardly any money borrowed on operating, which means we have to turn a balance of this year's crop into cash. And if we need to be in the market, we can go do that in other ways. And then furthermore, I think the bigger question is how can we at least try to increase our working capital going into 2023 at half of what we're seeing this year.

Chris

Barron: I—

Jarod

Creed: it's just in the last couple days, some of these bankers sending me numbers. I've seen working capital increases from, you know, anywhere from $50,000 to $100,000 on, you know, a 1,000 to 2,000-acre operation to 10,000, 15,000-acre farms seeing $3,000,000, $4,000,000 an acre increase in working capital. They're all going in the right direction but don't want to erroneously spend that money. Want to get to this time next year and be in great position if things have shifted a little bit more negative.

Peter

Meyer: The only thing I would say, Chris, is you just mentioned earlier that you make good decisions when times are tough and you may not make the best of decisions when times are good. The fact of the matter is you should be tightening your belt both times because of this uncertainty. You should be tightening your belt as much now as you do when things are tough. And I'll just let your audience know the inside joke is a friend of Jared and I, whose relative called and complained that he put in a concrete driveway with a boiler underneath it and was shocked when the plumber sent the price. He had extra money, put it in, and now he's, you know, 5 figures into a driveway. That was the inside joke, that's all.

Chris

Barron: You know, those expenses can happen. And so let me ask you this, Pete. You know, you've got wisdom, you've got experience. You know, when you look at— and I hear this question, I've heard this question a bunch here in the last month as I've started to have these individual farm meetings— is I've got this extra cash, what should I— should I be paying down more debt? Should I be hanging on to the cash so I have it for working capital as I move forward? You know, it's just I've not had this much cash in hand and it's not making me any money right now, so do I 'You know, what do I do with it? Because I just restructured my debt. And I've got low interest rates on long term. And I'm not sure, you know, how dry do I want to keep my powder.' So I'm going to come to you too, Jared, on this one. But, but what's your comments on that, on managing that cash?

Peter

Meyer: If you've restructured your debt to as low as you can get it, and we've just said we don't think interest rate— or I've said I don't think interest rates are going much lower. If your cost if your cost of funds is going up in the future, yeah, I mean, I would put the money into something conservative and then keep some extra operating— I mean, your operating capital around. You're not paying off debt at these low rates. If you feel comfortable with it, why would you do that? It's kind of like, I just saw the other day, or maybe it was yesterday or today, where now they've said, okay, Student loans, you don't have to pay them until May 1st. I mean, you know, so you hear the story where there's like 5 or 6% of people out there that have actually paid down some of their student loans in the last 2 years. It's free money. So, why would you do that? So, the cost of money.

But, so I don't necessarily, I mean, paying down debt is always a great idea, right? There could be no question, but at these lower rates and with the the possibility of higher rates coming, coming within the next couple years, maybe you need to spend your— maybe you need to keep your money, keep your powder dry on the, um, on the operating capital side. I don't know, Jared may have a different opinion.

Chris

Barron: And part of that, as we go to Jared, I'll just throw out there that discipline of managing that cash is different for every operation too. Some operations have the discipline to hang on to the cash, to manage it, and not go accidentally you know, put a boiler under the driveway or whatever, you know. I mean, though, there's easy ways to spend the money, you know, in the meantime. So it's a discipline thing. Go ahead, Jared.

Jarod

Creed: Um, I agree with all that, what Pete was talking about there. And I believe— I'm assuming that this is what you mean, you know— guys have restructured long-term debt, right? There is no such thing, obviously, as restructuring our, uh,, you know, our 6, 9, 12, 15-month operating balances. And at least the average producer I work with, and I would imagine that this is a, a pretty fair assumption throughout the U.S., it's a feat to get through the first quarter of a growing season without having to have operating money borrowed.

Chris

Barron: Yeah.

Jarod

Creed: And that, that should mean that there's been a pretty darn good opportunity on the table too. Something from a revenue standpoint has exceeded expectations, and it's exceeded what our cash needs are to wrap up the prior crop and going into the next crop year. I think that's just the nuts and bolts about it. When you have guys grossing $1,100, $1,200, $1,300, $1,400 an acre in corn through a lot of the Corn Belt, that goes a long, long ways to wrap up last year and going into next year. And yeah, I agree, not paying down long-term debt at cheap interest rates. It's already been restructured. But no need to put ourselves in a situation to pay any interest on 4%, 5.5%, 5.5% into this next year.

Peter

Meyer: Old enough to remember in early 2013 when people thought, wow, yeah, $7 corn, $6 corn, this is going to go and go and go and go and go. Yeah, it didn't. So, you know, you really, you really got to— I mean, there's not quite as an extreme an example as we've— or a more extreme example than we're seeing now. But the fact of the matter is that the business is cyclical, right? So I'm sure a lot of people listening that wish in early '13, they could have sold '14 corn, '15 corn, and '16 corn at the same time. I'm not saying that that's, that's what you do today, but I mean, the fact of the matter is, is that sometimes these opportunities come and you don't wanna—

Chris

Barron: Well, there's $5 corn for '23, right?

Jarod

Creed: Oh, I understand. Now, now tell me how many producers you work with can make money at that, Chris.

Chris

Barron: Yeah. With, with today's expenses, not, not hardly any of them.

Jarod

Creed: No.

Peter

Meyer: Correct. That's, and that's the problem, right?

Chris

Barron: Right. So with that said, That said, the last segment I want to hit with you guys then is, is just some practical decision-making. So I'll lay the playing field out for you, and Jared, you can adjust this based on what you see with your clients. But let's say, you know, we got 30%, you know, 20 to 30% of the old crop corn left, very tiny bit left of the, of the soybeans, the play bushels or whatever it seems like left on the soybeans. Not much left for what I see, and probably 20% of the new crops priced on both corn and soybeans from what I'm seeing with our clients. So from there, from a practical perspective, what, what are your thoughts? Any, you know, what are some next moves, some next ideas? And either one of you first.

Jarod

Creed: That's obviously the toughest thing to answer, uh, and obviously it's a case-by-case scenario.

Peter

Meyer: Right.

Jarod

Creed: If anything, you know, we're, uh, 5 weeks away from getting into the February insurance average period, and it's something I think that needs to be mentioned. Let's just say that we rally to $6 between now and February on new crop corn, and you take 80% of that, now you're down to $4.80. The reason I bring that up is if you carry an 80% insurance policy and prices at $6 in February, you have no insurance coverage for $1.20, and that's still 70 cents lower than where we are today. So I think what you need to do is consider, if I sell XYZ amount of bushels, uh, where's my price target or my price trigger or my price risk, whatever it may be, on the balance of it, and see if we can't get a certain percentage sold or covered in some way that marries up with what our potential insurance coverage is going to be. And put us in a, you know, a foolproof situation.

That goes for both corn and beans. And then as far as old crop goes, I don't know if there's necessarily enough grain, or there may be a strong opinion here, there shouldn't be enough grain around to really impact the average, the overall enterprise average price at the end of the day that much. One of my biggest pet peeves, oh yeah, 50% sold at this price, that's great, What's the all-in average? Because that's what matters at the end of the day. And maybe, you know, having that first 20% sold for next year is great. Getting enough sold, especially what you know you can't store, just in case things would turn around a little bit and we never catch up.

And then lastly, I'll shut up, uh, in the event things switch— and I'm not saying that they're going to, but if things start to change gear in the beginning of the year, uh there's just as much discipline in, uh, you know, sticking to a plan on the way up as trying to stick to a plan on the way down, uh, and make sure you know what that plan is. I got that in my head right now looking at next year's beans, uh, and looking at corn. I know where those price levels are that I'm not going to let it get below that. I'm going to go ahead and be a seller there if we're on our way back down.

Chris

Barron: That's a tough one for guys to do, and that's a great comment. I appreciate that.

Peter

Meyer: I don't really have much to add on the farm marketing side. I mean, I leave that to you guys. You guys are the experts on that. I would just say that, you know, the things that we're watching are energy prices, obviously. Crude oil is in it, you know, oil is a very interesting commodity at the moment. Just when you think it's about ready to fall out of bed, it comes back. I think what we've seen out of the OPEC+ countries is— I mean, nobody could argue that that's a monopoly, a cartel, whatever you'd like to call it. And I think that they've really understood the power that they have at the moment. We hear a lot of this about renewable this and renewable that, but the fact of the matter is that a lot of countries are kind of going, uh, uh, let's say, uh, kicking and screaming. So it's, it's, it's not an easy thing.

So I think that, you know, oil, oil consumption is still here, uh, will be here for, for a few, for, for at least the next 5 years. I mean, we don't, we don't see much change in it until 2025 with the proliferation of, uh, of EVs and stuff. But you have to be careful there. So what does that mean? Does that mean we're going to, uh, that the ethanol margins are going to stay where they are and the ethanol guys are going to continue to buy as much corn as they— you know, that could, that could be. But the fact of the matter is, is that these are historical ethanol margins for these guys, and, and it won't last forever. And if we know one thing about both the ethanol guys and the— and let's say the chicken guys— they have absolutely no discipline. So they will overproduce until they have too much supply. And then the bottom will fall out of it and whatever.

I mean, it's just, it's one of those things. I think Jared and I talk quite a bit and I said to a client the other day, I said, "It's a great time for me as an analyst to be in the business because I've never seen so many moving parts." Is that good or bad? Well, it's good because there's something to talk about all the time, but it's bad as well for you know, the average farmer— and I don't mean to say that the farmer is an average person, but, you know, the average farmer who just can't, you know, I mean, there's so many moving parts out there. Yes, it's really— so it's like anything else, right, Christian? You always say this: if you look at your margins and your margins make sense, pull the trigger.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, exactly. So that's about all I had. Only thing is, if you guys want to put a bow on it, anything else I didn't I didn't ask or anything at the end here.

Jarod

Creed: Just have a good Christmas and a new year and get a plan for next year and make sure you're profitable next year.

Peter

Meyer: The end.

Jarod

Creed: The opportunity's there. That's it. Yep.

Peter

Meyer: That's it. Yeah. I would, I would, and I would just add that it's okay to loosen, loosen your belt at the Christmas dinner table and New Year's Eve and that sort of stuff. But after that, tighten it up because, uh, you know, as we mentioned earlier, You need to tighten your belt in good times as much as you tighten your belt in bad times.

Chris

Barron: Excellent, excellent wrap up there, guys. Really appreciate your, uh, your collective wisdom. Um, we've had you both on one at a time. I think this was a, a great conversation getting you both on there. You guys talk a lot and, and work with a lot of producers and have a lot of wisdom. So thanks, thanks to both of you. Thanks, Pete.

Jarod

Creed: Thanks, Jared. Absolutely. Thanks, Chris.

Peter

Meyer: Merry Christmas, everybody.

Chris

Barron: You bet. Happy New Year, and thanks for listening, everybody, and we will catch you again next time on the Ag View Pitch.