Weekly market outlook: Jun 14-18th, weather markets heat up

Joe

Vaclavik: Thank you for listening to the Weekly Market Outlook.

Chris

Barron: It is our pleasure to bring an industry-leading market analyst to provide you with the most value possible in your farm business. Please reach out anytime by emailing cbarron@agviewsolutions.com. Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we are heading into a new marketing week. And going to have a conversation with somebody that I respect immensely that does a great job of watching the markets, analyzing, and giving us great perspective. Joe Vaclovic, how's it going today, Joe?

Joe

Vaclavik: I'm doing great, Chris. How are you?

Chris

Barron: Uh, hanging in there, hanging in there. It's a little toasty, uh, you know, it's over 90 degrees, uh, as, as we record that. It's not 90 in, in the conference room here, but it's You step outside and it's a wake-up call. It's a little toasty.

Joe

Vaclavik: Been a little warm in a lot of places.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, uh, then that— and that's kind of what happened. We just recorded, uh, the other day here, we recorded a podcast with an agronomist in Iowa and talked a lot about the heat. And it was ironic, that day we were standing out in the middle of the field evaluating frost damage and it was 93 degrees out. So, you know, that's one extreme to another, I guess you could say.

Joe

Vaclavik: So Things do change quickly, I suppose.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, that's right. So hey, let's, uh, let's get started here and talk a little bit about what we're gonna maybe see here in the next week or two as we head further into the growing season and watch these markets and things. And I want to start out by having you, for the listeners who don't know you, give a little background on what you do. You have a a podcast, and you also do a YouTube channel, and an excellent job of just getting good market perspective out there. So, and you did a summer weather rally discussion, and I kind of want you to start out with some of the highlights of that and tell a little bit about what you're up to and what you do.

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, um, my business, what I've been involved in, uh, since I got out of college a long time ago, has been brokerage business. Historically, I've worked with, you know, farmers and cattle feeders and people like that handling futures and options business. And then over the last several years, I've been moving into consulting and doing everything from newsletters to one-on-one consulting. I have a subscription service now where I do everything from an email to a text message service to subscriber-only videos. And then the last couple of years, I started this podcast, I think in early 2020. I started the YouTube channel a few months after that. They're called Grain Markets and Other Stuff. Grain Markets and Other Stuff is the name my podcast and also my YouTube channel, and apparently they've become very popular.

I did a video and a podcast episode earlier this week, and it was called "Should I Sell Summer Rallies in the Corn Market?" or something along those lines. And I went back and I looked at 20 years of December corn charts from 2020 back through 2001. And what I did was—

Chris

Barron: Hey, Joe. Hey, Joe. You're just a little bit muffled. I don't know if you can adjust your mic or something.

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, I'm just talking on the phone.

Chris

Barron: Okay, you're good then.

Joe

Vaclavik: Okay, let's keep going.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, let's, let's start over if we can. Um, I don't know, is— can you fix him a little bit on this end? You're definitely a little muffled for some reason and just don't want to— your stuff's way too good to—

Joe

Vaclavik: hang on one second. Okay, is that any better?

Chris

Barron: That's a little better. That better? Give me a 5 count.

Joe

Vaclavik: This is just me talking right into my cell phone. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

Chris

Barron: That's definitely better, don't you think, Joe? Okay, yeah, let's, let's roll again. Let's do that.

Joe

Vaclavik: What's that?

Chris

Barron: Okay, we'll go again if that's all right real quick here. Yeah, I just wanted that quality to be good. All right, welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we are heading into a new marketing week, and we have a special guest with us that I have a huge amount of respect for for Joe Vaklovic. Great job of perspective on the markets. How's it going today, Joe?

Joe

Vaclavik: I'm doing real good. Thanks for, uh, having me on again. How are you doing, Chris?

Chris

Barron: Uh, hanging in there pretty good. So just wanted to, um, have a little conversation here with you, get some perspective over the next couple of weeks. But before we get going on that, I want you to tell us a little bit about what you're up to. You do a podcast, you have a YouTube channel., and you did an interesting thing last week here on summer weather rallies and marketing there. And just have you real briefly give us a little background on yourself and what you're up to there.

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, for those of you guys who don't know me, I've been doing brokerage business since I got out of school back in 2006. And, you know, I started off working with farmers and cattle feeders and that sort of thing, handling futures and options business, and I still do a lot of that to this day. In recent years, I've, I've been doing a lot of consulting, a lot of newsletter business. I have a subscription service where I offer farmers a morning newsletter, cash grain recommendations. I do a lot of subscriber-only videos and content, that sort of stuff. And then I started doing the podcast a couple years ago. I started a YouTube channel shortly after that. The podcast is called Grain Markets and Other Stuff, and the YouTube channel goes by the same name. And they've become pretty popular apparently, so I guess I'm doing something right.

I did a video and also a podcast episode episode last week regarding rallies in the corn market during the summer. And I think the title of it was, should I sell summer corn rallies? And basically what I did in that episode and video, I went back through 20 years of December corn charts, 2020 back to 2001. And I took the summer high in the corn market during that mid-June to mid-July timeframe. And I compared it to the price at contract expiration. And kind of the question that I was seeking to answer during that was, you know, is it a good idea to sell summer corn rallies. And the statistic was this, interestingly enough, 80% of the time, 16 out of 20 years, the peak of the summer corn rally was a better price than where the December contract was at expiration.

So, what I'm trying to say here, long story short, these are usually good selling opportunities in 80% of instances over the last 20 years. Past performance, of course, not indicative of future results. Anything could happen. But that's the statistic which I thought was interesting.

Chris

Barron: Huh, and that is interesting. And, you know, the, the weather is such a huge issue, you know, when you look at, um, you know, we were talking offline there, you know, I was standing out in the middle of a field, uh, just a day or two ago with an agronomist looking at frost damage, and it was 92 degrees out. And so how extreme we go from one thing to another And that obviously, those things as they hit the news, that's what kind of drives this futures market and gives us opportunities. But what I want to ask you is a question specific to several comments I've heard from some of our clients here in the last week or so, is that I'm, I'm 30% sold, I'm 40% sold, I'm 50% sold in some cases I hear. And then they're like, okay, if I don't grow this. Maybe I'm 100% sold, maybe I'm 120% sold. Starting to hear a little bit of concern with that.

So, you know, what do you, what do you say to these guys that, you know, that they, they think they're 30% sold, but maybe they're higher percent sold? And we're really early in the season to say, you know, you're going to kill the crop how many times yet this year. But give us a little perspective on, on that idea.

Joe

Vaclavik: So first off, before I address that, in regard to these summer, what I would call crop scare events, where the market rallies on weather. Typically they're just that, they're scares, but they don't turn into failures most often. Like 2012 would be the example of a failure, but in most years you'll see, you know, the typical thing that happens more often than not is that you'll see a crop scare and then ultimately it does not turn into a crop failure and the markets leak lower through August, through September, into October. That being said, let's just pretend for a second that that doesn't matter and we have no idea what's going to happen in the future. The first thing you might want to do in that situation, if you think that you're oversold, I think you've probably got to have a talk with your crop insurance person and discuss the implication of being oversold.

You don't really ever want to be sold in the cash market or be obligated beyond your insurance bushels in this situation this early in the year. And if you are, that would probably be the first phone call that I'd make. Now, if you're in a situation where you're 120% sold, that's something where you've got to talk to somebody like me or you've got to talk to somebody who can help you to offset that upside risk that you have in the market. And keep in mind, a farmer barely ever has any upside risk in the market. But if for some reason you're 120% sold or you believe you are, you actually do have some upside risk in the market. So that would be a very unique set of circumstances that does not happen very often, but it would need to be addressed.

With regard to any additional marketing, say you just don't know, like you, you're 40% sold, but like you said, maybe that 40 turns into a much higher number if you have crop problems. The way that you would do any additional marketing, it would have to be through options where you could set a price for without committing bushels to a grain buyer, whether it be an elevator or an ethanol plant, and without really committing to a price on the board. I mean, the only thing you could really do in my view is buy a put option. You're gonna dish out some money. They're not cheap, but that would be the only way that you could take a situation where you're totally not confident about your production and set some floors and do some marketing. I mean, that's the only way to do it.

Chris

Barron: And hopefully that's a, quote unquote, scare as you just described that's scaring the farmer as well a little bit and really doesn't come to fruition here.— But it is—

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, the one thing that I should mention is that when I talk about that, I'm talking about it like on a national basis. Like on a national basis, most of these crop scares don't turn into crop failures. But that doesn't mean that it couldn't turn into a crop failure on your farm. Exactly. You know, you're gonna have bad pockets where your yield's gonna be half of APH or whatever, or worse. So yeah, I mean, it's— you gotta keep an eye on your own farm and not worry so much from a production standpoint about the rest of the country. In regards to the market, the rest of the country is, is, is what matters largely.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, exactly. So I guess, you know, we can come back to weather, but I do, you know, last week we had a USDA report and then we've got the June 30th report, which probably is going to be a lot bigger deal. I just want you to, any, anything there that as we head into the next week or two, looking back or looking forward, that our, you know, listeners should be aware of or paying attention to?

Joe

Vaclavik: Without getting too specific into the changes, USDA tightened up their U.S. corn balance sheet a little bit. They made some increases to their demand projections. So the way that it stands right now, the statistic I really like to look at when it comes to supply and demand is not the carryout number, it's actually the stocks-to-use ratio, which is a much better gauge of supply and demand. It gauges, you know, stocks versus demand essentially, rather than just the ending stocks. And USDA is projecting that the stocks-to-use ratio for U.S. corn corn this year is going to be pretty much equal to what it was during the '12-'13 marketing year, during that big drought year. So USDA I think confirmed that, yeah, the market is probably fairly priced at these levels, you know, old crop corn at $7, new crop corn at $6. USDA loosened up the U.S. soybean balance sheet a little bit.

The crush has struggled a little bit the last couple months and they reduced that projection. But all in all, we're still looking at like the second tightest soybean situation on record, uh, just, just behind, I think it was '13-'14. So they confirmed essentially that, you know, the situation's really tight. Um, they changed a couple of the world numbers, they brought that Brazilian corn number down as, as was expected. So no, no surprises there at all.

Chris

Barron: Okay, so we'll keep an eye on that and, and stay focused. The next thing I want to get to with you is The Biden administration had some announcements out on Friday on biofuel. What's going on there? What's your perspective to this point anyway on that? What do we need to be watching?

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, this is all— I don't know if it's hearsay, it's probably slightly better than hearsay, but Chris, I, I read some terrifying stuff in this Reuters article this morning regarding the Biden administration and what they, what they would like to do, or at least what some of these Democratic senators would like to do. Um, the, the, the article, and, and this was a Reuters article, it was out, uh, early on Friday morning. Title of it is Biden Mulls Giving Refiners Relief from US Biofuel Laws. And essentially a, a, a short summary of this is that there were some Democratic senators, uh, East Coast senators who met with the head of the EPA to discuss providing relief for refiners according to some sources. And, uh, the EPA, uh, a spokesperson there did in fact confirm that these meetings happened. So this is not just hearsay. This, this is a direct quote from the article.

In the meetings, Reagan, that's the head of the EPA, and the senators discussed options like a nationwide general waiver exempting the refining industry from some obligations, lowering the amount of renewable fuel refiners must blend in the future, creating a price cap on compliance credits, and issuing an emergency declaration. That's what a couple of these sources said. That is, in my book, just absolutely terrifying language when you consider the fact that 35 to 40% of all demand for U.S. corn comes from the ethanol industry. If they do anything to this mandate, whether it— any of these options here of exempting refining industry from obligations, lowering the amount of renewable fuels, I mean, an emergency declaration. Could you imagine the disaster that any of this would be for the corn market if it was realized on a large scale? I just— I can't overstate the risk here.

I doubt that any of this happens, but the prospect of it is very scary to me.

Chris

Barron: Do you think that had any impact on the pressure we saw on Friday?

Joe

Vaclavik: I do. If I was a fund manager, and fund managers are very heavily long the corn market on the whole here, I would look at this article and I don't know if it would make me sell my position necessarily, but it might make me a little bit nervous, certainly. And without a doubt, if any of this was realized on any sort of scale, there would be selling. I mean, funds would not want to be long in the corn market at 7-year highs with this sort of news out there. And I don't mean to scare you guys. I just, I want to let you know what is happening with this. And this is kind of a fluid situation. You're probably going to hear more about it over the coming days, weeks, whatever.

But if any of this is realized and for some reason, the Biden administration and the Biden EPA decide that they are going to do something to ethanol to reduce usage of ethanol, production of ethanol, it would be very bad.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, and that would be a clear definition of a black swan, which we, we got used to seeing those last year. And I think sometimes we forget when the markets are strong and we feel like we have some time, we don't always have time.

Joe

Vaclavik: Occasionally. Yeah, and I hate— I use that word in my video I sent to my subscribers today. Honestly, I hate using the word black swan because everything's a black swan to everybody these days. But I mean, like, if you put it— put it this way, Chris, if there was a way that you take these corn from $6 down to like $4, this would be one of the ways that you would do that. And no, I'm not projecting that that's what's gonna happen. I'm not advising anything. I'm saying that the possibility of this, the stuff that I'm reading, It bothers me a little bit.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, it's scary.

Joe

Vaclavik: Yeah, yeah, definitely is.

Chris

Barron: So as we talk about that, that's one of our sources of demand, one, you know, the big one on the corn side for sure. Let's talk demand for a minute, um, on China and other things that are on the positive, or are there some watchouts there?

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, what's really impressive to me is that USDA USDA was forced last week to increase its corn demand numbers for ethanol and exports despite the fact that one, the market is at what, 7-year highs, and two, the market is inverted. I mean, old crop prices are way above new crop prices, yet they had to make this adjustment. It just speaks to how phenomenal the demand for U.S. corn is right now. In regard to new crop corn, China has already made massive, massive purchases of new crop U.S. corn, um, bigger than we've ever seen. So we've got just phenomenal demand for corn that doesn't appear to be going anywhere at the moment. Now soybeans are a little bit different, and, and part of the reason for that is that Brazil had a monster crop this year, and it's hurt our export demand, uh, certainly. And we've also seen crush demand back off a little bit.

So in, in beans, I think the inversion and the high prices kind of did their job to some extent in that you're seeing evidence of reduced demand, um, where in corn you're just not— you haven't seen that really at all yet. Um, and part of that has to do with the failure of the Brazilian corn crop, I think. Um, and it's just— it's a really stout demand base.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, you talk about the Brazilian corn market, the South American stuff that's going on. What are you watching there as it relates to to demand?

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, both governments, the U.S. and the Brazilian government, reduced their crop estimates in yesterday's report, or in last week's reports, and that was all largely expected. To put this in perspective, you can basically take the early expectations for the Brazilian corn crop from last fall and trim a good 15% off of those, and it may end up being 20% less than initial expectations. So that's a real crop issue down there. That's pretty darn close close to being called crop failure down there, depending on where it ultimately ends up. So that's— it will, it will keep demand for U.S. corn a little bit stronger on the export market, definitely. And we've seen plenty of evidence of that.

Chris

Barron: Okay, um, let's circle back a little bit to where we started for a minute here on weather. If, if we continue to see the spotty popcorn stuff at the most, and then, you know, just ironically A little while ago I was talking to a good friend client that we work with in Indiana, and he works with a lot of growers in the Delta, and he said the amount of replant corn that's going down there because of too much water is huge, you know. And so everybody has different issues, but it always kind of revolves around weather. And this time of year we're trading that. What kind of up and down potential do we have here? I mean, what are you watching for for potential on the upside or the downside on both corn and soybeans?

Joe

Vaclavik: So in regard to what traders watch when it comes to weather, uh, they're watching a lot of different things. The weather models update several times per day, and there are multiple weather models that traders follow. Some of the proprietary systems have models that predict the weather models that they'll trade off of. So there's a lot of There's a lot of money moving in and out of these markets based on the weather situation. In these weekends during the summer, this time of year, this is like the heart of weather market season here beginning in mid-June and it goes kind of through mid-July in regard to corn and a little bit later for soybeans. But I mean, we're just trading weather here and if this drier tone remains in place, like I'm seeing kind of a drier tone in the forecast here, at least for the next 10 days or so, that would be friendly.

The GFS model in particular is offering perhaps a little bit more rain in the extended model. That would be negative if it came to fruition. Just so much of what happens, I was told early in my career that weather is the biggest driver of grain prices. And we've kind of, I don't think anybody's forgotten that, but we've been focused on a lot of other things here the last several months. Demand has been such a big deal and such a big driver of prices, but weather is always the biggest thing. And you got to remember, Chris, we don't know what the acreage numbers are. I mean, I don't have a clue clue, to be honest with you. I don't know how many corn acres we planted. I don't know how many soybean acres we planted. And I have absolutely no clue what the yields are going to be.

So I think the markets probably maintain some sort of premium here, both because they don't know the yields and they don't know the acreage until we know a little bit more. And of course, June 30th is your big report when we get the planted acreage numbers from USDA. That's a big, big piece to the puzzle.

Chris

Barron: Well, that's, that's just it, you know, you get more and more information as we go along, but then also as you get more information, might there be a little less opportunity too along the way?

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, yeah, I mean, if, if, if the information is bearish by the time you see it, it's gonna be too late and you have then missed the high in the market and now you've got the deer in the headlights mentality where you're afraid to do anything. So yeah, this is, this is incredibly difficult, Chris. This, this figuring out these markets is without a doubt the hardest thing I I've ever tried to do. And I did— people struggle with it every year, and I'm no exception to that. I don't think anybody is. This is tricky, tricky stuff.

Chris

Barron: Well, and it's even hard, you know, the higher the price, the harder it is, right? And, and it just—

Joe

Vaclavik: oh, the volatility will just make you feel silly. I mean, you'll go make a sale one day, and then the next day the market might be up 30 cents, or it could be the opposite. You make sale, the market could go down 30, 40, 50 cents in the course of 2 or 3 days. It's just, it's It can be mentally taxing, it can be mentally exhausting, it can be very difficult to figure out. Grain marketing is not easy.

Chris

Barron: And that's why, you know, one of the things we always try to do with our business is help people really stay focused on that margin management rather than trying to hit the high. Let's, let's hit that margin target. You know, what, what amount of money are you trying to make on a per bushel basis based on your 5-year average or where you are at, at a given point in time during the growing season? Of where your production realistically most likely going to occur, and you can kind of dial some things in a little better, try to limit the emotion a little bit. But with that said, one of the last things I want to ask you about here is managing basis, as in specifically on new crop, as we, you know, work through the growing season here and be thinking about that.

So when we're making sales, you know, there's, there's some people that are going to be doing HTAs, there's some people that are or, you know, maybe look at some futures or options or whatever. But what things should people keep in mind as they manage basis as we get further into the growing season here?

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, basis of course is highly variable, and I'm sure you've got listeners all over the country as I do. You know, what I typically tell people, if you think the basis is good historically in your neighborhood, don't be afraid to just do a cash contract in lieu of that HTA. There's no problem with that. Typically, I mean Typically in a normal year, I would advise in most situations that you separate futures and basis by using an HTA or futures contract to price that portion, because they usually will be at their best kind of at different times. But if you're in a situation here where you've got a $6 Dec corn board and your new crop basis is really good, I mean, I wouldn't hesitate to make just a cash sale rather than an HTA. If you know that you're going to deliver that corn.

Now the HTA gives you— the HTA or futures contract, of course, gives you a little bit more flexibility. I mean, if you've got a ton of storage, maybe there's some carry to be captured down the road. I don't know if that's going to happen or not, but I just try to keep it very simple. If it looks good, if it's good historically in your neighborhood, take advantage. If it's not, then do the HTA if you have to make a sale, worry about the basis later. The thing that I've had probably the most problems with over the years are basis contracts because guys will lock in the a good basis, and it just seems like— seems like I've dealt with, like, ugly basis contract situations so often where guys have the basis priced, but the board just gives you nothing to work with. And in this situation, the board is giving you something to work with.

So I try— and this is not always going to work— but I try to steer people away from doing basis contracts. It's just I've seen them not work out work out in so many situations. That doesn't mean that they won't work out this year. Maybe they'll work wonders this year, but I feel like I've just, I've heard too many bad things and I've witnessed too many bad things.

Chris

Barron: What we're seeing more of is just like the HTAs or, and in some cases, some guys that are doing a little bit of futures as well, you know, and then it gives you the flexibility on timing and the timing is the same as it is with the marketing, right, where, you know, timing is everything. But, you know, if you could get out there earlier— but we have a lot of people thinking, well, I'm going to get out there before everybody else and I'm going to deliver on and get a better basis and then I'll lock the rest. If everybody's sitting there waiting to do the same thing, it's going to be the first one to the door and everybody else is going to be out of luck really quick, probably. And so timing will be something that if a person's doing that, we kind of got to be careful with that too, don't we?

Joe

Vaclavik: Yeah. And everybody's situation is different and I can't really give anybody any sort of blanket advice in regard to basis, especially like last year and this year where you had some areas that were really short in terms of production and other areas that were really good. So it was really variable and it's still variable across the country to a real significant extent this year. So yeah, I mean, I've just always kind of gone with the idea, basis is good, lock it up. I'm not necessarily a huge fan of basis contracts, and people would certainly disagree with me on that, I'm sure, and that's fine. But it seems like you have typically in a normal year, and really in most years, you got a lot more risk in the futures than you do in the basis. In most years, it's not every year.

You can see phenomenal moves in basis, but I mean, as a rule, futures is probably where your bigger risk is.

Chris

Barron: Mm-hmm, yeah. Is there anything I haven't hit on that You know, we've kind of hit the weather, we talked about this biofuel thing that we're gonna have to keep an eye on and these reports in the past, you know, and also what's coming up on June 30th, the acres is going to be a big deal, but any final comments?

Joe

Vaclavik: I saw, um, IHS Markit, that's Informa, had their acreage numbers out on Friday and they've got corn acreage at 96.5 million and they've got soybean acreage at 89.1. So what that particular group is telling us is that you're going to see this massive expansion in corn acreage, 5.4 million for March intentions, and you'll see only a minimal expansion in soybean acreage, up about 1.5 million. If that were realized, I'm not quite sure how that would play out. It would make your corn balance sheet a little bit more comfortable. It would probably leave your soybean balance sheet fairly tight depending on demand and what the yields are ultimately. The one thing I know about acreage is that just about everybody gets the numbers wrong. On just about every acreage report. So I would imagine just about everybody's gonna be surprised on June 30th in some way, shape, or form.

I have no prediction. I just, I'll tell you to be prepared for a surprise.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, we can just count on the up and down and the volatility to continue here for a while, probably.

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, it's that, and then even after the acreage numbers come out, be prepared for some sweeping adjustments come like October or something goofy. That seems to have been the trend here the last few years. But it's USDA and their data. It's all been very, very difficult to navigate here as of late, the last, you know, 2, 3 years especially.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, it's definitely made it tough. So, uh, hey, if people want to get a hold of you, like I said at the beginning of the podcast, you know, Joe, you do a great job of perspective and, and taking something that sometimes seems awful complicated for a lot of us on the producer side trying to navigate some of these things. You do a great job of bringing some of this stuff down to earth so that we can understand what we're dealing with and how to make better decisions. So if people want to reach out, get a hold of you, what— again, just rattle through your platforms here and the best way to get a hold of you.

Joe

Vaclavik: Well, the best thing to do first off would be check out the podcast. It's called Grain Markets and Other Stuff. It's on every podcast app out there. Uh, go on YouTube, punch in Grain Markets and Other Stuff, uh, you'll find all my videos. I upload videos 6, 7 times a week normally, and about the same for the podcast. And then if you, if you do have some sort of specific question, you really want to get a hold of me directly, My email is info@standardgrain.com. I'll get back to you. I reply to everybody. Um, I'd be happy to talk to you about just about anything.

Chris

Barron: Awesome. Hey, really appreciate your time, Joe. Um, we'll have you back and we'll kind of see what happens on June 30th. So that's going to be interesting.

Joe

Vaclavik: Yeah. Hey, we got to do a plug too, because you're going to come on my podcast and we're going to talk about '22 farm budgets sometime the next couple of weeks. Yeah. So, uh, be on the lookout for that.

Chris

Barron: Yeah. And we'll definitely be doing that. We'll have a lot of conversation on, on '22 for sure, as expenses are going to change a little bit the way inflation is and things. So, Joe, really appreciate it. Thanks a lot.

Joe

Vaclavik: Yeah, thanks, Chris.

Chris

Barron: You bet. And we'll talk to you again. And thanks everybody for listening, and we will catch you again next time on the Agri-Pitch.