Hurricane damage and the September USDA report driving the markets

Narrator: Thank you for listening to the Weekly Market Outlook. It is our pleasure to bring an industry-leading market analyst to provide you with the most value possible in your farm business. Please reach out anytime by emailing cbarron@agviewsolutions.com.

Chris

Barron: Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we are heading into another week in September on the markets, and we have with us today Pete Meyer with S&P Global Platts. How's it going, Pete?

Peter

Meyer: I'm doing well, Chris. How about yourself? Everything all right?

Chris

Barron: Yeah, we're hanging in there. We dodged the, uh, the, uh, hurricane last week, but I, I think there was a few people that didn't have that luxury. So I kind of want to start out there with you and, and, uh, just kind of get your perspective. You're up in the Northeast there where, um, find out, did you guys have anything, anything from that as it headed your direction at the end of No, we got, we got some, but not, uh, not as bad, not as bad as others.

Peter

Meyer: But I would certainly, I would certainly say that in, in discussions with farmers, uh, west of you, um, and some other areas, not necessarily in eastern belt and in the western belt, certainly these, uh, these rains have helped a little bit. I mean, you know, if anything, it stabilized your corn crop and, and probably added some, uh, some some soybean yield. You know, I don't— I'm old enough and not proud enough to tell you that I've killed enough soybean crops in my career in mid-August that this year I'm just going to wait, wait until mid-September to see how this all turns out. The pod counts that we saw on crop tour a few weeks ago were not that impressive as compared to the corn, which was impressive. But So we'll see. We'll see if it adds some weight. I'm hearing some stories out of central Illinois where the weight is not great.

Um, 80,000 kernels a bushel versus 70,000 last year. I mean, that sort of stuff, but you know, we'll see. We'll, uh, we'll see. But the, certainly the rain has stabilized, uh, you know, outside of the hurricane, the rain that we've seen through the belts has certainly stabilized the corn crop and maybe, maybe added a little bit to the bean crop.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, I think one of the things that you always see if you get the right kind of weather during fill with corn and you slow that fill period down, and you know, that, that last 3 weeks, you can add some pretty heavy bushels to both corn and soybeans, you know, during that window. If the, if the weather cooperates during that window, for sure.

Peter

Meyer: Well, the other thing that's obvious as well, Chris, and you notice, I mean, the amount of fungicide that was applied this year seems, seems to be an awful lot as the years passed. I mean, I, I get it with prices the way the way they are, of course everybody's trying to squeeze every last bushel they can. So we'll see how that works out.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, you can see that just driving, you know, I've been across about 6 or 7 states across the Corn Belt, and you can see now, you anyway, you can see the fields that probably were sprayed with fungicide and some that weren't. And there's, we're starting to see some of the early hybrids are getting about ready to harvest. And I know harvest is going on in some areas now to the south and stuff, but Let's kind of shift over back to the hurricane again for a minute. You know, in Louisiana, it sounds like there was a significant amount of damage down there. I talked to Cargill, and it sounds like they really had some major damage in a couple locations and really thought it was going to slow things down. Have you heard anything or any concerns that you have based on, you know, trying to do some exports down there and moving stuff down the river?

Peter

Meyer: Sure. Well, I mean, from what we understand, the river has been reopened by the Army Corps of Engineers. They've, they've cleared the river of, of debris to get it going. But as you mentioned, that Cargill plant in Reserve, Louisiana, you know, it's our estimation that maybe 9% of Gulf exports, and that includes wheat, corn, and soybeans, went through that plant so far this marketing year. So that being down is a problem. I have heard just anecdotally, you know, nothing direct from Cargill, that that plant's going to be down until June— until January, I'm sorry, until January for barges. They will take trucks, they will take rail, but as far as barges are concerned, now everybody saw those pictures on social media. I mean, one of the concerns that I have for something like that is where are you going to get the steel? Right. Steel is, is in short supply.

You have a logistics issue. Steel prices have exploded. Not that that matters to somebody like Cargill because they'll pay what it takes, but it's logistically getting the steel and then getting the heavy machinery in there. And I think that's why they've kind of gone to this, this, uh, this January time frame. Now, that being said, we've seen cargoes being booked out of Mobile, Alabama. We've seen some, uh, some talk about moving some stuff to Houston. You know, Chris, it's just not as simple as saying, okay, well, let's just move all this stuff out of PNW. From what we understand, PNW is, is booked through the month of September and even the first week in October. So it's not that easy to all of a sudden redirect stuff to the Pacific Northwest and have that shipped out. So we'll see. I mean, certainly CHS has some damage down there as well.

And I think that's what we've seen in the market here. You know, that is certainly the major underlying reason why the market has gone soft here is because there is this fear that there is longer-term damage to this stuff. On the other side, Chris, you know, let's not forget that there's a lot of fertilizer suppliers that are also in that area. And for those guys, you know, we've seen the price of urea explode, whether that's predatory pricing or not, I don't have any idea. It does look a little predatory to me. But I mean, we'll have to wait and see because there are a lot of fertilizer intake plants to the west of New Orleans in that general area. They have said they're okay, but here again, no power, you know, it takes a while. But yeah, the Cargill thing in Reserve, Louisiana is a concern for us.

And like I said, the last we had heard, that was Saturday, was that they were thinking they would not be open till January just because they couldn't get their hands on the steel to fix it.

Chris

Barron: That's crazy. What, you know, you talk about how that affects the flat price. What about basis? I mean, there's— and we have a lot of clients in this boat. I think a lot of producers kind of had either some HTAs or, you know, some futures positions set and were kind of waiting for basis based on harvest, and it was kind of that, you know, playing chicken with the market, so to speak, driving right at the market— as the market, you know, kind of comes to the farmer as far as harvest goes, trying to get that, um, get that best basis on that early window of harvest. Is that gone now?

Peter

Meyer: Well, I, you know, I mean, what we've— what I've seen is I follow the ADM, uh, Decatur price, obviously, because a lot of people in the ethanol business follow that as well. And that looks like the basis itself has held up okay. Uh, it's about flat to plus 5. For everything past mid-September. So, you know, I mean, it's, to me, it's impressive that the fact that we're still trading around $5.25 and the basis has held up okay. I mean, that to me tells, you know, that's a sign that the market is still strong on the demand side. The question, of course, is, you know, what happens after Friday? 'cause there's gonna be a lot of moving parts in this month's WASDE. And, you know, I mean, look, buyers are in the risk protection business just like sellers are, right? So they will stay out there with their bids until Thursday afternoon, and then anything can happen.

Chris

Barron: So let's talk about that for a minute. What's your thought on Friday's report? Are there anything, there that as producers we should be watching for, paying attention to? I got a couple other questions to lead off of that, but I'm going to stop there and see.

Peter

Meyer: Yeah, there's, there's, uh, there's a lot, there's a lot to be concerned about and a lot to be, to be looking at, you know, regarding, uh, getting a little bit of tunnel vision on something. Everybody is, everybody's very, very focused on the, uh, the yield changes So for those that don't know, like, they used to— before Sonny Perdue was Secretary of Agriculture, the USDA, or NASS specifically, had these objective yield plots where they would put that data in starting in August. And then due to some yield— sorry, due to some budget cuts, that was reduced to September, or that was started in September. So this is the first month you're going to get the objective yield plot data. Now let's go back and talk about what we saw on crop tour. On crop tour, it was obvious that the corn crop was planted early and planted in good conditions no matter which state you were in.

And by that, the amount of ears that emerged from the seed pop is tremendous this year. The best that I have ever seen in my 15 years. This is my 15 years of crop tour. I mean, typically, Chris, when we would come in and out of a field with 30 feet a row and we count ears on both sides, we'd come out with 95, 100. We had fields were coming out in Iowa and in Minnesota even at 120, 125. So it's clear that the emergence was pretty high. So my point there is that the objective yield data will have the ear count in it in September. The second thing we have to be very mindful of is that NASS announced last week that they're going to make an acreage adjustment. Now typically, I'm lucky enough to have a nice relationship with Lance Hodig, who's the chief statistician there at NASS.

And when I talked to him earlier in the year, I said, you know, what are you going to do on acreage after there was this whole kerfuffle about, about the acreage number? And he said, you know what, Pete, he said, we're going to do it like we usually do. We're going to wait till October before we make any change because then the FSA data becomes pseudo-final, right, going into October. And all of a sudden, uh, this week, I think it was Thursday afternoon or maybe it was Friday, exactly at 12 noon, they announced, nope, we're gonna, we're gonna make an adjustment in September. So why are they making an adjustment in September? They're making an adjustment in September because prevent plant is so low. Right, we had, we had good planting conditions. Yep.

So I mean, I have been at 93 million acres of corn and 89 million acres of beans since, uh, well, I'm sorry, I've been at 93 million acres of corn and 90 million acres of beans since January. In August, I went down to 89 million acres of beans, and I don't see any reason for me to, to stay there, to move from that point rather. So those acres are both a little bit higher. Um, I think in my opinion, you know, given the low prevent plant, I would expect acres to go up. Can the soybean acres go up that much to get to 89? Probably not.

But you know, a lot— we have— I have a lot of friends that are a hell of a lot smarter than me, and they've done some triangulation amongst the seed companies, and it certainly seems like there are more acres out there that were planted with corn and both corn and soybeans, um, than the, uh, than the acreage that the USDA is using from the June 30th acreage report. So we'll see what happens. So those two, you know, and as far as demand is concerned, Chris, I think what we saw—

Chris

Barron: excuse me—

Peter

Meyer: what we saw in August was that the USDA is making these, these changes based on the— based on demand. I'm sorry, based on supply. So you know, let's say for argument's sake, supply goes up by 100,000 bushels, just to say, you'll see demand in corn, you'll see demand go up by 50,000 bushels. They'll just, they'll make those adjustments until things settle down a little bit. But it's going to be a production report. It's going to be interesting to see, um, if the OY plots, the objective yield plots, uh, mirror what we saw on Crop Tour. Um, the weights are still that, that, that is yet to be determined. So let's not, you know, I mean, it's one thing to get the data in September, then in October they'll get more data, November they'll get more data.

It's probably, the data is probably going to be more final, final this year earlier than usual just because of the advanced stage of the crop. And by that I'm talking about corn. So, but we'll see what happens.

Chris

Barron: Um, so that's interesting. You know, there, it sounds like there's a, there's a fair amount of threats there that could— you know, challenge the market a little bit, at least short term or whatever, from the report. What, as far as farmers go, and I told you this offline, I was going to throw this question at you, you know, there's still bushels out there that the producers probably don't have space for. They've got, you know, probably some more bushels to sell that are going to have to go off the combine for both corn and soybeans, so And for a lot of producers, the soybeans are the first choice to go off the combine, mainly because they're, they're a pain in the, in the butt to store, and they're not as easy to deal with as corn.

There's not as much carry in the market, and so for those reasons, a lot of times a farmer, it's just easier to get rid of the beans and store the corn. But what, what do you report and blooms here at the end of the week, um, you know, what do you tell these guys, you know, if they've got bushels that still have to be marketed off the combine? I mean, these prices are pretty good, you know, for both corn and soybeans. There's a lot of profit here yet. Is there any, any reason to, um, to still sit on your hands, or do you need to be getting that stuff priced?

Peter

Meyer: Well, I mean, I would certainly You know, I would certainly get at least half of it priced. I mean, you know, right, right. I mean, the prob— the problem is, is that if you and I had this conversation last week before we knew the impact of the hurricane, um, you know, I mean, corn had traded December $5.50. I had this conversation with a few producers, and the beans, November beans, seem to have a magnet around $13.25, $13.50, and guys kept saying, wow, it'll go back to that price, it'll go back to that price. Well, The beans got hammered this week, and I think that a lot of that has to do with the fact of this, this closure in, in New Orleans. And corn has lost maybe 25 cents. So, you know, do we have this possibility where we get the, get the market back to, to $5.50 corn?

In my opinion, what you'll see at $5.50 corn is you'll see a lot of producers that are very willing to let bushels go, and not just extra bushels, as you say. The same thing can be said at $13.50 beans, but that's a long way away from here now. That would probably take a take a limit move. But I think on your high side, you know, $13.50 and $5.50 are probably, probably the best you're going to do going into harvest. Now on the low side, um, that's a difficult call because the soybeans, in my opinion, um, are trading a very, very, um, emotional market, and corn is trading a more orderly market. We see plenty of support for corn between $4.75 and $5. And as much as everybody was bullish at the top, everybody's getting bearish now. And to me, I'm just trying to separate the truth from the noise.

Chris

Barron: Well, and like you said, pricing some of this stuff is probably a smart move. I mean, everybody's got to make their own decision, but the other thing that we always observe this time of year, if you're in an area where you think your yields weren't going to be super great, a lot of times they're better than you thought, and maybe there's a few extra bushels. So I mean, just getting out there and doing those yield estimates and stuff and figuring out kind of what you got, I think would be a good activity for this week, and, and kind of have a plan going into the report. Um, any, anything else on the report before I shift to another topic here?

Peter

Meyer: No, I mean, the, the report is going to be totally focused on the, on the supply side, right? Between the acreage change, the yield change. And as I said, I mean, what we saw in August was that when the yield got reduced in both corn and soybeans, the World Board reduced demand on a 50% level for both. So I'm sorry, they didn't quite make that— they made that exactly a 50% change in corn. So I wouldn't worry about it. You know, like I said, I mean, if we get more more production and thus more supply, you're going to see increased demand on that just based on the way the World Board is running their balance sheets. So no, I don't think we're going to see much on the demand side. Changes are going to be made in relationship to the change on the supply side.

Chris

Barron: Okay, so shifting gears here then, as we move into— the thought process of 2022. What's your idea there as we, as we, you know, look at, look at that, you know, Nov '22 soybeans and the, and the Dec, you know, '22 corn. Any thought process there? Anything that guys should be thinking about pulling the trigger there if they haven't on some things, or what's your thought on, on—

Peter

Meyer: Well, I mean, I mean, certainly December '22 corn futures above $5 is pretty tasty, but obviously um, your listeners would have to weigh that against what their input costs are going to be. You still have some variables here on the input, on the input side, obviously. I mean, you know, just back of the envelope type stuff, if you bought, let's say for instance, $100,000 worth of inputs, you should probably sell $100,000 worth of Dec '22 corn at, uh, at that, uh, at that $5 level. Beans are a little bit dicey here, um, just because barring a complete and utter failure in Brazil for '22, the USDA has Brazil at 142 to 144 million metric tons. I'm conservative by nature, so I'm at 140 to 142. But you would say that, okay, that's still up anywhere from 4 to 6 million metric tons from this year. Which was a record 136, right?

So you keep— and, you know, I'm sure from the outside looking in you're saying, God, how is that possible? Up another 5 million metric tons, up another 5 million metric tons. Well, they just keep planting more and more acreage, and they will add 1.5 million hectares this year, in our opinion. They could also have a very big corn crop, even though their corn crop last year was, was pretty low. I mean, I've seen some, certainly some numbers over, over 100, 110. We're going to wait and see and see how it, how it goes. And that's, that's against maybe a sub-90 crop this year. So the issue then is if Brazil has such a big soybean crop, you know, how do we balance that on the world balance sheet? And it's hard. I mean, because China certainly has increased demand, but when we look at it, Currently it looks like they gain maybe 2 million metric tons a year.

So, you know, maybe from 100 this year to 102 next year. USDA is down around 101. You just don't see that incremental demand coming out of China for soybeans, uh, to offset this increase in Brazilian production. So barring any weather issues, I mean, I would think that the soybean balance sheet especially is going to be, um, in line, so to speak, because, uh, the Brazilian production will make up— will easily make up for any increased, increased, uh, global demand from China.

Chris

Barron: So, um, two quick questions then. So back to the '21, you— are you pulling the trigger on, you know, if you're a producer and you're sitting there and you don't really have good space for the soybeans, are you, are you completely fine with getting them off the combine and getting rid of them?

Peter

Meyer: Yeah, I would, I would, I would think so. I mean, like you said, I mean, but really though, Chris, what choice do you have if you don't have the space? I mean, yeah, the soybean market is, is moving from a, from a heavily discounted market or in backwardation, as we call it, into a little bit of contango. Corn is back to a little bit of contango. But we all know the psychology of the US farmer where he, he or she would much rather just dry out the corn or dry the corn to an acceptable level and store the corn and not necessarily have the beans.

So certainly You know, when you start to look at everything that's piling up against you, the possibility of a large Brazilian crop, even though that's not going to affect the market in late September or October when harvest gets going in earnest here in the US, but you do have this, you know, everybody, the end user is going to be watching the planting progress in Brazil. Some people have said, oh, they're slow already. I don't worry about planting progress in Brazil if I'm soybean, so we get into October. But if you have a decent planting progress in Brazil in October against, you know, these rains that may have helped out, help fill out some pods and a little bit better yield. I mean, I'm certainly staying at 51 bushel an acre on the, which is a bushel higher than the USDA. Will it make it, will it make that big of a difference to my spreadsheet, to my S&D? Probably not.

But the fact of the matter is, is that it does give you a little bit more wiggle room. Now you got this, now you have this problem in Louisiana, which one major exporter is saying will not be solved. Off the barge until January and things start to back up a little bit. Yeah, so I, I would, I would think that if there is a vulnerability out there in the market, it's going to be soybean prices at harvest.

Chris

Barron: Okay, um, so back to the '22 again for a minute then on, and on soybeans. So, you know, you made the comment, you know, if you're, if you're buying your inputs, maybe go 1-to-1 on, on some of those purchases that you're doing on the corn side. What about on the soybean side for '22? And this is your opportunity to talk about demand going into 2022. Any, any comments you want to make there?

Peter

Meyer: Well, you know, 2022 is still going to be an export-driven market. Past 2022, '23, '24, '25 is going to be very, very exciting for the soybean industry in the US in in our opinion. And that is really based— so '22, again, what you're going to face is you're going to face a less— barring weather issues, right, Chris? I mean, we're just talking here hypothetically. You're going to be facing some pretty serious competition from Brazil. There is a little bit of a hole in the— on the oilseed side, given the failure of the canola crop in Canada. So there might be some additional demand brought up on that, but will it be enough to offset 100— well, let's say Brazil harvest is 144. No, it's going to be hard. That's going to be very hard. But moving forward, '23, '24, '25, it's going to get very, very exciting in the US.

And in my opinion, soybean imports from China are just going to be a back page story at that point. The reason for that is that this renewable diesel, sustainable aviation, aviation fuel phenomenon that's going on in the country shows no sign of abating at all. Just last week Chevron announced that they are going to invest $600 million with Bunge and increase the size of 2 crush plants, one in Cairo, Illinois, and another one in Louisiana. What does Bunge get for that? 100% of the soybean oil offtake. What will they do with that soybean oil? Going to renewable diesel and going to sustainable aviation fuel. ADM and Marathon announced another deal earlier. Marathon's going to give ADM some additional money for some of those plants, especially up in North Dakota, closer to your place. Shell Rock already, you know, that's well documented.

Phillips 66 gave Shell Rock a— or own a minority ownership in that Shell Rock plant.. And in return, they also got 100% of the soybean oil offtake. So, you know, this is— it's an exciting time, but it's going to take some years here to get this going. So we think that some of these plants are going to be up to around in 2023. These plants will be going. We certainly expect more, more of these joint ventures. In our opinion, Chris, if you want to succeed in the renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, you better have a good dance partner. And these dance partners are starting to go in a hurry, right? ADM is kind of locked up. Cargill has a deal with Love's. Bunge, we just talked about. Dreyfus, we haven't heard much about. But this is how these big oil companies are going to be able to sustain growth in the renewable fuels business. And it's going to be big business.

I really think that what you're going to see is This is going to make ethanol look like a backyard barbecue.

Chris

Barron: That's pretty exciting stuff. That's, that's cool. That's going to be fun to continue to follow up with you because you tend to be in the know on that stuff and kind of know what, what's going on and can kind of keep, keep our listeners updated, and we really appreciate that. I want to— it leads me back though to a question for, for going into 2022 then on the soybeans. Are you, are you thinking the same thing then on soybeans for '22? Because those plants won't be up and running yet. We're going to have the Brazilian competition. So, you know, if we're, if we're selling some corn for '22, are we selling beans for '22 as well?

Peter

Meyer: Oh yeah, I would, I would think so. And then you also have, you know, less inputs, right, on, on your soybean side. So maybe that's a little bit easier. But, you know, if you have your rents figured out, and your seed prices, obviously. And I mean, look, you know, the biggest problem you have is that these, the seed companies missed last year, right? They missed it because they just, the stuff was priced too early. Certainly your machinery, your machinery guys didn't miss it. I look at some of these prices that JD and Case are looking for some of these, some of this new equipment. It's remarkable really what they think they're going to get for this, get for this stuff. So, you know, your cost, your costs are certainly not going down on that side. So yeah, I mean, I, you know, we, I was, you know, I'll be very honest with you about 8 or 9 months ago.

And I think we probably talked about this. I was much, much more bullish soybeans. I mean, I thought soybeans had a chance to, to kind of hang around $14. And now, you know, through this, the stuff at the port and everything else is going on, you know, I have to, do I, do I think that it can, it can rebound to $13? Sure I do. Do I think we have a chance at $14 anymore? Probably not. As far as an average price, can we make an average price of $13 for '21-'22? We probably can. But if this Brazilian crop— so many things have changed in the last— I don't know when we spoke last, probably 3 months ago. But this backup at the port is a real problem. And the Chinese also, I mean, we're starting to hear more and more about some ASF in the northern provinces. I mean, we certainly don't— that's, that's certainly an issue as well.

So as I said earlier, I mean, I think that if we took a look until 2023 or so, certainly the soybean prices would be, would be a bit more vulnerable in my opinion. Okay, that's a change. And that's a change of attitude for me. I mean, I was, I thought, I thought the other way, but I mean, it's just Too many things going on.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, well, we talked early this summer. I know I was driving back from Illinois when we were recording the podcast. We were driving down the road, and, and I know you were pretty high on the soybeans, and, and, um, you know, and I know just looking at our clients, you know, that, and you look at '22 sales, there's more '22 corn sold than there is '22 soybeans, at least in our observation from our client base. And so That's, that's good information to have. I mean, we can— almost everybody I work with, or in fact probably 100%, you know, $12, $12.50 beans is still a really high profit level on the soybean side. And then the other side of the equation is too, on the cost side of it, when you look at anhydrous being up 100 and, you know, but it's up according to our data, it's up about 106 or 107% now from what it was last year at the exact same time.

Peter

Meyer: And—

Chris

Barron: and your fertilizer, your P&K and everything is up, you know, in that 70 to 80% from what we're seeing, you know. And so you add that up along with all of the other input costs, corn's up about $150 an acre to produce higher than last year, so it requires a lot more working capital. And then when you look at soybeans, that's up about $60 an acre, obviously requiring more working capital, but not nearly as much as as soybeans. So, so there's, there's a lot to think about here.

Peter

Meyer: But I think— always the case, always the case, though, right? Where there's always more focus on, on corn than there is on soybeans that we have, even though producers are not necessarily— well, not our client base, not our client base at all at S&P. But, you know, I will say that, you know, one of the things that might be able to save these '22 prices is that you know, if we are right and we need billions and billions more pounds of soybean oil than we would have expected to produce this renewable diesel, you know, that may end up, even though we don't think it really starts to really kick in until '23, that may end up supporting the front end of the, what will then be the front end of the market in '22, right? So, certainly, If you were just reliant on the export market, I would be very, very nervous.

But given the fact that we have this global demand for vegetable oils and fats and tallows and greases and everything else for renewable diesel and for sustainable aviation fuel, that may end up giving a bit of a bid. But as we talked about, Brazil produces 142, 143, 144. That's going to cap your rally in soybeans.

Chris

Barron: Yep. Well, hey, this was a great conversation. Anything else I didn't ask?

Peter

Meyer: No, that's it. I just, I want to wish, uh, all your listeners a, a safe harvest. Obviously this is the time of year where, where, uh, sleep can get, uh, can get low and, and things can happen. And I just, with everything else going on, you know, I just, I, I wish all your listeners to the best. I hope they have a safe harvest. I hope that they— I hope it's better than expected for their sake, let's just say. Um, and, uh, yeah, thank you. Thank you for the opportunity. It's always a pleasure to talk to you, Chris.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, you bet. And hopefully, uh, maybe if you can get away, you can come out while we're combining on our farm or something, or get you out, out here and get you back in a green cart or a combine again and make you do some real work for a day or two.

Peter

Meyer: Uh, well, I got plenty of real work here, but whatever you say.

Chris

Barron: Get your hands dirty or something.

Peter

Meyer: There you go.

Chris

Barron: All right, sounds good. Well, hey, uh, really appreciate it. Uh, that's Pete Meyer with S&P Global Platts, and we'd like to thank everybody for listening, and we will catch you again next time on the Ag View Pitch.