Tug of war price movement

Chris

Barron: Hey everybody, thanks for joining the Ag View Pitch. We will be rolling here in just a second with the market outlook with Peter Meyer. Excellent conversation, make sure you listen to the end, a lot of really cool content in there. Peter really knows his stuff. First of all though, I did want to remind everybody about the Ag View Executive Business Conference, January 25th, 26th, and 27th in St. Petersburg, Florida. We're getting quite a few people registered. If you are not registered and you're planning on going, please go to the Ag View Solutions website, click on the conference and all the information is there. But we want to make sure that everybody realizes we can only have 100 people there. And so if you are thinking about going and don't have time to get registered, maybe even just text either me or Alyssa and say, hey, we are going for sure, hold our spot.

Um, you know, I think we got a little bit of time yet, but I just want to make sure everybody understands that we do want to get people registered for that. I hope everything is going well with harvest. You guys have a safe one out there and enjoy the podcast with Peter Meyer, S&P Global Platts. Thanks. Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch. We are heading into a new marketing week. It is the last week of September, the 26th through the 30th, and We are lucky enough to have with us for this discussion Peter Meyer, S&P Global Platts. Peter, how's it going?

Peter

Meyer: It's going pretty well, Chris. You know, a lot of moving parts in the financial markets are making things a little bit interesting, but I guess we just have to kind of let that dust settle with the interest rate hike last week. Just kind of watching the markets and trying to listen to what they're telling us.

Chris

Barron: Sounds good, sounds good. So last week we finished off the week, um, a little bit on the crappy side. I'll just put it that way, uh, red on the screen. And then, um, and we had some, some strength earlier in the week, um, last week. And, and so that volatility sometimes creates opportunities and sometimes it creates frustration. So what's What, as we look to this new week and the next week or two here as we head into harvest, what are some of the things you're watching, um, as we, as we proceed here?

Peter

Meyer: Yeah, last week, I mean, I think we closed Dec corn down a few cents or whatever, and beans were down about 20. Maybe Dec corn was down 3 or 4 cents, and Nov beans were down maybe 20, uh, from the previous week. I think what we have here, Chris, is a, is a is a real tug-of-war, especially in corn, not necessarily in soybeans. The tug-of-war comes from the fact that the macro picture is extremely bearish commodities, extremely. I mean, on Friday we had crude oil trading below $80 for the first time since January. You have the dollar at, you know, really, really high levels, interest rates going higher. The stronger dollar, the stronger dollar obviously is very poor for exports and lower Lower crude oil prices and lower gasoline prices are very bad for ethanol, but you know what, you have a short crop in the U.S. So, you know, the question now is which side wins out.

And the funds, for their part, the financial players, are just sitting around with their hands in their pockets. They're watching what's going on in the broader market. This sell-off in equities, given the high interest rates and the high strength of the dollar, is not necessarily bullish commodities. You know, we hear that occasionally. From people, "Oh, they're taking their money out of stocks. They're gonna put it in commodities." No, they're not. That's just not gonna happen. This could very well be an all-cash environment for investors for a while, especially with rates up and the 75 basis point hike last week, and then the Fed's target.

I think they kind of telegraphed here that they'll be at about 4.4% by the end of the year, 4.5%, which is another 1.25% higher, but Back to the corn price, I mean, yeah, we're down a few cents for the week, you say nothing's really going on, and it has been impressive the way that it's really hung up given the fact that crude oil closed below $79 on Friday, but I mean, it's really a tug of war and really you have a short crop out west. You have an okay crop in the East, you have a short crop in the EU, you have plenty of reserves in Ukraine. Yeah, everything seems out of position with corn, and you have a lot riding on a Brazilian crop that's about to be planted, and that weather, you know, they've gotten some rain, so that looks okay. But, you know, in order to kind of calm things down, we're going to need more than one crop, one good corn crop.

Soybeans, I think we can calm things down with one crop, but with corn you're going to need two, maybe even three. And that's because of the uncertainty around Ukraine, what Ukraine is going to plant next year and the year after that. I have no idea. And how much of it can get out. I mean, we're having these conversations now between Putin and Turkey. You know, I mean, look, we literally have a man in power in one of the most powerful countries in the world that just doesn't have a grasp of reality. So You know, so I think that there's so many factors here. Dollar, interest rates, very, very, you know, oil prices going down to some of the lowest levels we've seen since January. It's, yeah, it's a real mixed bag and a tug of war.

Chris

Barron: One of the things that I think there's some question on is, you know, you do hear recession talk and the interest rate's gonna continue to go up and that's gonna continue to slow things down. You know, to which is, you know, probably a necessary evil. But doesn't that really give us quite a bit of risk on the downside on the commodities if, if that starts to really hammer the stock market? Or what's your opinion there?

Peter

Meyer: Oh, I think you're— I think there is downside risk in commodities. I just think that, you know, like here, here in the U.S., I think that the basis markets are really going to have to, um, have to play the game, right? The futures— I mean, nobody's selling corn at $6.75, which is where we closed or the last print on Friday. Nobody's selling corn at $6.75, nobody buying corn at $6.75. So I mean, basically now we have a market there that's just, you know, just kind of stuck in limbo. And I mean, the big, you know, and we're not going to really know. I think there's a tremendous amount of pressure and a tremendous amount of reliance on the Brazilian crop at 120 or 122, which would be a record, but we're not going to know that for a long time yet.

And I think that the You know, the rain that we received in Mato Grosso and some of the other— Pará and some of the other big production states, I think that's why the beans kind of sold off by 20 cents last week. But, you know, for the most part, corn is just hanging around because we're really not going to plant a corn crop in South America for many months.

Chris

Barron: As far as the, you know, on the production side, then we'll come back to demand again in a minute here. But I want to ask you, because I didn't ask you to first part of the conversation, but you know a lot of producers in the U.S. and stuff. Are you hearing— what are you hearing for early yield reports and that kind of thing? I'm kind of hearing a bit of a mixed bag, that real early stuff wasn't so good because it was the stuff that died earlier, was in drought areas. But are you hearing any, anything else?

Peter

Meyer: You know, you talked about maybe a short crop, but yeah, generally Generally, the yield reports that I've received, some of it's from the really bad stuff, the guys in Nebraska and stuff that just wanted to rip the band-aid off and got tired of looking at it. I totally understand that, right? But then some of the stuff in the Eastern, especially in the beans, yeah, not as impressive as I thought, this and that, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But here's the key. In the September WASDE, the USDA came out in round numbers with a 1.2 billion bushel carryout in corn. In a 200 million bushel carryout in beans. That's not gonna move, in my opinion, because the fact of the matter is, we have to, if we reduce the size of the crop, we're gonna reduce demand. I mean, there is an inherent relationship between the two. The correlation is like 0.85.

So, you know, and we started to see it where intrayear, the World Board at USDA, what they usually do is if they lose, let's say 100 million bushels of supply or production, they cut demand by 50 million. Well, so they use a 0.5 coefficient in the middle of the year. In September, they used like a 0.6, a 0.65. So that tells me that, you know, I mean, look, I hear a lot of these suggestions out there that the US carryout's below a billion bushels, maybe 900, the soybean carryout's 150. But the fact of the matter is, you know, you need a certain amount of bushels in the system to keep the system moving. And I think what the USDA is kind of telling you there is, yeah, we're kind of at the bottom here. So we're out of corn, we might be out of beans, and, and the markets are just kind of floundering a little bit.

That goes back to my point earlier where there really seems to be a lot of focus on Brazil. Now, if Brazil becomes a failure and it gets real dry there, yeah, okay, I totally get it, I totally get it. Then then the roof's off this thing. I totally understand. In the meantime though, Chris, I just don't see it moving much in the interim because I think we're kind of stuck at these carryout levels. And the US, that's not to say we can't go down to $1.10 or something like that, or $1.90 or something like that. But in round numbers, I mean, you have to have a certain amount of bushels and we usually work it on a percentage basis. The percentage of demand, whether it be 8% or something in that area, tells you how many bushels you need.

So they would really have to— if they lower demand, then they can, they can lower the carryout, um, because they just won't need as many bushels in the, in the system. But it's a very, very tricky situation here. There's not, you know, it's not all of a sudden where we're going to wake up in October and they're going to cut the corn yield to 170 and the bean yield to 50, and all of a sudden the carryouts are going to be down to zero. It just doesn't work that way. So You know, that's it. I mean, you know, in one way you could say, oh geez, we're basically with the demand we currently have, we're out of beans, out of corn, yet the market's just kind of floundering here. Yeah, that should be a concern. But, you know, there's so many pieces going in here besides Brazil. I mean, you know, you asked about what I'm hearing from farmers.

Okay, so the farmers out west in Nebraska or Kansas, oh, well, Kansas got some rain last week. The hard red crop looks a little bit better. You know, the potential there is a little bit better. The fact of the matter is, with anhydrous prices the way they are, we continue to hear from guys in some of the driest areas, you know what, A, I can't get my drill in the ground to plant winter wheat. I don't want to plant it any deeper than 3 inches. The water, I can't get any moisture until I get to 3 inches. But the other guys are saying, you know what, I'm not going to do any fall field work because with anhydrous prices as high as they are, I have no idea whether it's going to stick or not in this dry dirt. So what does that mean? I mean, economically, Chris, you look at the ratio between corn and beans, you would be saying, yep, guess what?

If you believe that there's 190 million acres still out there to be planted, that's available. I think it's a little bit lower than that given urban sprawl and the rest of the stuff, but let's just call it 190. Certainly the math on it and the economics of it would say we're going to plant, let's say, 93 million acres corn next year and 87 million acres of beans. The problem is, is that you have rotation. We planted the last beans, then corn this year. And you also have now these guys out there saying, these guys and women out there saying, "Ah, I don't know. Boy, I don't know if I want to put down a Sanhydrous if it's not going to stick. What a waste of money at $1,500 a ton." So there's a lot of moving parts here, a lot of moving parts. Yeah.

Chris

Barron: One of the things, if we are spending that kind of money, and there was an opportunity there. We've got clients that did buy some in, in that $1,100 range that are probably going to proceed more so in the middle part of the, you know, Illinois, some Iowa areas, some Indiana areas where they guys got that bought. But now it is back up to, you know, the levels you're talking about. And, and I think, you know, if, if, if a person doesn't match that up to— and I've talked about that with several others in the last few weeks You know, you go out and you buy your NPK and you spend $300, $400, $500, $100, whatever you spend, selling that many dollars of corn, especially on the corn side of the equation, makes a lot of sense because there's still a pretty good return there for 2023.

And I wasn't going to jump into '23 yet, but just as a comment, I think, you know, that's, that's something to pay attention to. But We'll come back to '23 in a minute. I'm going to ask you another question here. What are you seeing on basis, and what if you're a farmer, what are you thinking about? Because there's, there's operations out there, a lot of operations that probably have enough sold, they can get stuff in the bin, but there's also some areas where things don't— do look pretty good. There's maybe they can't store everything. Are you storing the extra corn or the extra soybeans? And What's your thought, you know, during harvest and basis and things guys need to be watching?

Peter

Meyer: Well, the basis has really been all over the map, right? Yeah. The, you know, the buyers out west where they know they have a short crop, they've certainly been bidding for it and saying, okay, I don't care, I'll take it, I'll take it, I'll take it, I need it, I need it, I gotta keep moving, I gotta keep moving. You know, the export market is the one that ultimately is going to, is going to show the most wear after the domestic market gets filled. And we've seen that already where what US corn exports that are on the books sold, sold but not shipped yet, or well, it wouldn't have been shipped yet, we're only in the third week, or fourth week of September now. But what we've seen is that, is that, you know, it's very, the book is very, very small on the buy side.

So that basis is not necessarily strong, but the basis for the ethanol guys, the feeding outfits and everything else, yeah, they have decent basis. You know, in the East, I mean, yeah, you're going to be at the mercy of the buyer that can move it from the East to the West. As we mentioned a little bit earlier, a lot of this stuff is out of position. Just because it's, you know, it's out of position or just because the basis is strong in the West doesn't mean the basis in the East is going to get any stronger because you're going to have to pay for that transport to get it out there, right? So, you know, the basis just to me is, I think you referred to it as a mixed bag.

I mean, yeah, it's legitimately all over the map, and that's why I say that, you know, literally we have these micro-markets intact where the crop is okay and the buyers have to transport it, and then we have these micro-markets out west where they'll just pay whatever kind of— meanwhile the futures are just kind of sitting there. So I really think that the basis is, again, we'll have to continue to do the work, and it's something that you should should really watch out for.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, we saw in Cedar Rapids, Iowa last week, we saw basis levels of a dollar over for corn. And, you know, and we're in a pocket where it's actually pretty good in a lot of areas. I mean, it's kind of a mixed bag even, even in our area. And it's kind of what we see in a lot of areas, just kind of the have and have-nots. And you draw a line and it changes pretty fast from one area to another, but So a couple of other things I wanted to hit you up on. What, you know, what if— so as a farmer, we're sitting here, let's say we're XY sold, we're either 40%, 50%, 60%, less, more, whatever. What do we look for? I mean, are— what makes you comfortable, I guess, for percent sold?

You know, if you're, if you're Joe Farmer out here and You know, I guess that's what I'm asking is what are you worried about or what do you think is going to continue to give us strength, I guess, or do you think we're just on a sideways deal? What should we be paying attention to and thinking about?

Peter

Meyer: Well, I think when you— if I can just— I'm just trying to look for it a little bit. I mean, you know, it does— it's starting to appear more looking more and more like, you know, when you look at the curve, okay, let's call it, and you know, again, that's not saying that necessarily that basis is going to follow the curve, but I mean, you have, you know, Dec corn is at $6.75 and March corn is at $6.79, and July corn's at $6.80, and I'm sorry, that was May corn's at $6.80 and July corn's at $6.73, and then it falls out. So sure, you can go, I just don't see the premium building up in the back months. It just appears to me like the market is saying, we'll buy it in December, or we'll buy it at harvest, or we'll buy it in March, or we'll buy it in July and we're all gonna pay the same price for it. Mm-hmm. Well, you know, and we're talking about corn there, obviously. Right.

But I mean, you know, that's something that—

Chris

Barron: Well, beans aren't that much different.

Peter

Meyer: Right, but that's something that really don't, you don't really see much, right? You don't, we don't really see that. Beans are, you're exactly right, Chris. Beans are exactly the same. I hadn't actually, I'm just pulling this up on my screen now. I hadn't actually looked at that. Beans are exactly flat or—

Chris

Barron: Right.

Peter

Meyer: Yeah, okay, a small premium to July. Not enough. Right. So now you have to sit back and say, okay, well, you know, can I afford to get the taxes on this now? Because it doesn't seem like anybody's going to pay me any premium to store it. Okay, so now I have to do some quick tax accounting.

Chris

Barron: Okay, can I do that? You can do the beans for Jan and the corn for, you know, March and the deliver after, you know, and due deferred and all that kind of stuff.

Peter

Meyer: But I guess I just don't know that there's, you know, I don't know, you know, what can change that. What can happen is that, yeah, if Brazil gets off to a start, goes, you know, gets off to a good start, well, then we end up going the other way, right? Then you end up in a backwardated market. Well, and if we— and if we— if, if Brazil, you know, gets off to a rough start, well, then you go back to a contango market. But at the moment, the market is just telling you, look, this is what we're willing to pay for corn for the next 6 months. You guys decide what you want to do.

Chris

Barron: I still keep going back to the stock market too. Tell me I'm nuts if I am here, but if, if that thing can't support itself and we do, you know, continue the sell-off like we had last week How, how does the commodity market stay strong if that money's being pulled out, all that risk off? I mean, we need that money in the commodity market too, right?

Peter

Meyer: Yeah, but the flips— well, no, not really. I mean, because interest rates are higher now, you know, a lot of these investors can go to interest rate products, right? Yeah. But I mean, that there's no flow back, you know, we don't see— in the early days we used to see, you know, the flow back and forth between equities and commodities. We just don't see it anymore. We just don't see it.

Chris

Barron: So you're not worried about stock market going to crap and that having any effect on the commodities?

Peter

Meyer: No, because I think that the Fed has kind of told you now what they want. They want 4.5%. So, I mean, there is certainly, you know, this week's sell-off in the stocks is worrisome or whatever, but, you know, the flip side to that would be, well, crude was down, you know, $5 on the week. On Friday, and guess what? Corn, corn was only down, you know, 13 cents. Something's wrong with that. Yeah, yeah, I don't know.

Chris

Barron: It just—

Peter

Meyer: see, you know, are people taking their money out of commodities to pay the margin on stocks? That could be going on as well.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, well, that's just—

Peter

Meyer: I just don't— you know, it's, it's professional traders don't typically don't, don't sell the stock market at these levels, certainly. And But, you know, you know, here again, the dollar strength, you would say, okay, well, this stuff really should have crapped the bed, so to speak, and it didn't. Oh, that tells me it's going higher. Not necessarily. It tells me it's just not going anywhere.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, yeah, it's going— I think it was Jared Creed said it's going nowhere violently or something like that.

Peter

Meyer: Yeah, I mean, volatility is going to be high, but that's, that's the thing, right? That's the way we started this conversation. There's a huge There's a huge war between the macros, which are extremely bearish commodities, and the micros that, you know, we don't have enough corn, world needs corn, the US is basically out of corn, beans, yeah, we got to rely on this. Oh my God, what's Ukraine going to do? You know, wheat's not a problem, so the wheat market has been leaning on the corn market, or, you know, I should say corn has been leaning on the wheat, and that hasn't worked out too well. I mean, Look, Russia is going to produce 100 million metric tons this year for sure. It's going to be a record crop. Will they sell it? No, you're damn right they'll sell it. Somebody's going to buy it at cheap prices. Somebody will buy it.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, um, sounds good. So I got a last question here for you as we get closer to wrapping up that I think is important that we hit on real quick here, is the 2023 inputs. I brought it up earlier, I'm going to bring it up again here now towards the end about the amount of money that it's going to take to put this, uh, '23 crop in is still higher even yet than the '22 crop was from our estimates that we've seen with Profit Manager to this point. What makes you comfortable or what makes you uncomfortable marketing a chunk of the '23 crop corn, soybeans, wheat?

Peter

Meyer: Uh, the only thing that makes me— well, Anything that makes me uncomfortable about hedging the corn is that I really think there's kind of a $6 floor on this market. As I said earlier, I think it takes a couple, maybe 3 global corn crops, which seems almost impossible these days given the climate and everything else that's changing out there. And you know, like today, okay, not today, Friday was down 15 cents, so $6.30, $6.50, you say to yourself, "Okay, I can do that. I can hedge some stuff at $6.50." But now, you know, lose 15 cents on Friday, back to $6.15, now we're butting up against what I think is the bottom here, or our support zone. So I don't really know.

Certainly, I mean, yourself and Jared, you know, guys that really pay attention to this, you know, you guys are the ones who say, "Okay, well, if I'm buying X amount of thousands of dollars of inputs, I'm going to sell X amount of thousands of $100 a corn, so I know I have that kind of locked in or whatever. On the bean side, I think you're at risk on the bean side. I really do. I just, there's something, last year we thought the potential in Brazil was 150 and it came in at 127. This year we think the potential is again 150. If it comes in at 150, we're going to have a problem on our hands because China is not a buyer of beans. And they just, it just seems like They've just kind of flattened their buying out in corn as well. So I think what we're seeing is that they're waiting for the market in Brazil to come to them. And I think it might.

I mean, my target price for even for the '22-'23 for soybeans is only $13.50. And for us to get down to $13.50 after spending all this time here around $14.25 or so means we'll have to trade down at $13. I can see that. I can see that on a good Brazilian crop.

Chris

Barron: So, so you're, you know, you'd be a little heavier sold on the beans and the corn?

Peter

Meyer: I think so, because like I said earlier, financially, economically, I understand why people are out there saying— and, and our colleagues at IHS Market have come out with, based on their farmer survey, and they think like in round numbers that it's going to be 80 or 93 and a half million corn and 88 million beans. I get it financially when you look at the ratio, the ratio certainly favors corn. But again, we've come out of a rotation. So I don't think, I don't think we can plant 93 million. I don't think there's 190 million acres out there. I really don't, especially with wheat prices the way they are, the crop insurance prices over $9 for winter wheat. That's certainly going to take 47, 48 million acres.

Cotton, okay, you got a cotton problem, you got a real cotton problem on your hands, but that has to do with the crop insurance game that was played in cotton this year, in our opinion. But I mean, the fact of the matter is that I don't think you're going to get 93 million acres of corn. I think you, you know, I have to, again, if you think the pie is 180, I have to start again this year at 90 and 90. I just have to. Give them rotation, whatever. And I would be more bearish. And if you plant, let's say, 89 or 90 million acres of beans next year, on top of, let's call it, a 145 or 150 crop in Brazil, and China is only buying 96, you got to be careful. Because here's the thing, Chris, on the bean side, right, let's say Brazil produces 150. Let's just say that. Let's just, let's just call that number. USDA is at 149. Doesn't, doesn't matter.

Even if they produce 145, they can export 100 million metric tons. China's demand is going to be less than 100 million metric tons. So in theory, Brazil could take care of China. So where does that leave the US? That leaves us waiting for all these renewable fuel, uh, renewable diesel plants and all these new crush plants to start up in 2024, 2025, right? They're not coming up for another year or so, right? Yeah, exactly right. You know, you're exactly right. So that, so that kind of— I think we're kind of stuck in the middle here at '23 and maybe even early '24 saying, yeah, I don't know, those beans look kind of, you know, but look, everybody, you know, it's a, it's an individual, it's an individual decision. And certainly after the year we've gone through, it's an emotional decision.

But I would, as you do, I'm sure you, you suggest to your producers, please try to take the emotion out of it. If it makes sense, let's get, let's get rid of some. And let's just go. And, you know, look, I'm not in the business of speculating, as I mentioned earlier as well. I try to listen to the market as much as I can. The market's saying, yeah, I'm kind of comfortable here. Um, you know, we have a $6.50 price on our, on our, uh, '23 new crop as far as farmgate's concerned. Yeah, and I don't think it goes much further than that. Soybean one? Uh, $12, $13.50.

Chris

Barron: $13.50. So what, what So you— I'm going to title this podcast in the beginning from what you've been talking about is, uh, market tug of war. But what I want to just comment on to make sure I understand this is I think the market tug of war is code for needing to do two things, if I'm understanding you correctly. And correct me here if I'm wrong. Number one is figure out what margin works for your farm. In other words, what— okay, here's my yield. So I'm talking '22 first. Here's my yield. Here's what my cost of production was, I'm good with this margin, let's pull the trigger on stuff. And, you know, and we can have our play bushels, but if we can achieve that margin goal, you're not too worried to the downside, kind of where the levels were at.

But maybe the second part of that is then maybe put some targets in a little higher than where we're at so they hit them, so they hit, so you're not sitting there either emotionally not being able to pull the trigger or the infamous, we're always doing other stuff and we don't get the job done when we need to, or waiting for that other 3 cents, and then it costs us 30 cents because we were waiting for 3 cents. Um, that's kind of what I'm getting from what you're saying. Am I, am I catching your drift?

Peter

Meyer: Yeah, the, the tug of war really is just about the corn being out of position globally, and I don't really know that that necessarily means $7.50 corn in the futures market, right? And so that, that's my point, right? And And yeah, I mean, the beans, the beans are okay as far as, as far as bean supply is concerned. You know, I think, I think it's, I think it's okay, and the wheat is okay as well. If the wheat's okay and the corridor stays open in Ukraine, you're going to see some weakness in corn. But again, I, you know, I think to your point, I think, you know, there's a lot of noise out there. Interest rates are certainly hurting everybody. I totally understand that.

I mean, what happens is, is you have— this is a time when you really have to be super, super disciplined and try to forget about the noise or try to close off the noise and just pay attention to what your balance sheet looks like at home, at your farms.

Chris

Barron: Yep, yep. Yeah, I was telling a farmer the other day that called me, was all worried about recession and worried about financials and some stuff. And I told him, if you wanna not worry, turn the stupid TV off, number one. And stop watching that crap. And then some of the social media stuff is fine, but, you know, too much of that, too much of that is not a good thing either.

Peter

Meyer: So I think, you know, I mean, look at when we, when we look at what's going on in the stock market and oil prices and everything, I mean, your risk of a recession is much, much higher than your risk of expansion. I mean, you know, even the Fed is telling you we're gonna raise rates. And, you know, I think the Fed is kind of telling us that we're gonna keep rates a little bit higher in '23, but you're not going to see a rate cut until '24. So now all of a sudden you're sitting there in '23 saying, okay, you know, and I always, you know, I don't mean to make fun of them, but I have a lot of younger farmer friends who are like, oh my God, look at these rates. And I laugh because I paid 17.5% on a 3-in-1 arm on my first house, right? That's in 1981 or '82. But I get it, right? There's a pain point. We've been— everybody's been kind of conditioned to this free money.

I know money's not free, but you understand what I'm saying, Chris, and it's just Yeah, so another reason to tighten your belt a little bit and take a look at what your financials look like on your home farm, your entire operation, and just, you know, play for another day.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, yeah, hit some singles and maybe a double once in a while. Reach for a home run, you might strike out. So this was an excellent conversation, Pete. Really appreciate your time today. And if If people— if somebody wants to get a hold of you, what would be a good way to look you up or to get some information from you if they want to?

Peter

Meyer: You can just send me an email at pete.meyer@spglobal.com. Pete.Meyer@spglobal.com. Awesome. Happy to have a conversation with anybody out there listening. I can— what I love about this business is I learn something new every day. So I'm happy to have any conversations.

Chris

Barron: Yeah. Well, yeah. And I would recommend since, uh, Pete's throwing that out there. If any of you get a chance, take advantage of it. Again, as always, Peter, you brought your game here to the, to the conversation. Really appreciate it. Thanks a lot for today.

Peter

Meyer: I appreciate the time. It was a pleasure to talk to you as usual, Chris, and I wish everybody out there an extremely safe harvest.

Chris

Barron: Be safe. Yep, that's right. And I'll second that. Everybody be safe and good luck with harvest, and we will catch you again next time. On the Eggview pitch.