Pre-report discussion: Sunday night market outlook 06-28-2020

Duane

Lowery: This to be the case, you don't want to give them the opportunity to point a finger at China saying you don't honor your agreements. They could at least maintain this going into that. So I don't think China's going to back out. Now, their pace of purchases may continue to disappoint. Hey, maybe they continue to disappoint in past the election. I don't know. But I think if you look at China's overall purchases and global soy demand, soybean demand is really good, and their usage and demand, uh, pace seems to be, uh, setting records. So, um, I don't think there's a problem here with demand. And granted, they're buying South American supplies, but there's— that's a finite number of the South American supplies, and at some point in time If China gobbles it all up, what's the rest of the world users going to do that typically bought Chinese supplies?

Because every, every single month China's importing a record number of South American, record quantity of South American supplies.

Chris

Barron: Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag U-Pitch, and we are now in this new week going to be heading into July, and you've got Chris Barron and Duane Lowery here. Duane, a couple weeks ago I was trying to get us into July. We're finally getting there now.

Duane

Lowery: Well, that's good. I thought maybe you'd have us in August by now.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, right. Yep, that's for sure. Well, I'm kind of getting back into the reality of the world now. We— Alyssa talked me into going to Las Vegas amidst the this coronavirus thing just so we could kind of see what's going on in the world. I think mainly her, her desire was to sit by the pool. And one thing we, we learned is there's a lot less people out there now, and we actually felt pretty safe. The airplane was about 75% full, and the hotel actually was at 80% capacity, they told us. But we do not stay on the strip. We stay out on the western side. We go out there, try to go out there a couple times a year, and it didn't seem that abnormal at the hotel. So it was kind of interesting just to see what's going on in the world. I know some of these states are talking there's a spike and things, but we felt pretty safe out there.

I don't know, maybe we're crazy, but it was good to get away, good to get back. And, and now what I was hoping, Duane, is just to kind of go through a bunch of different topics here with you. Anything wild going on in your world right now before we get into the markets?

Duane

Lowery: Actually, for an unusual circumstance, there was something wild in my world yesterday. All 3 of my sons and their girlfriends jumped out of a plane and did skydiving. Oh wow. Exactly.

Chris

Barron: So yeah, well, how come you didn't— or maybe you did.

Duane

Lowery: You do it with them? I'd like to say that I didn't do it because the plane was full, but I don't think that's accurate.

Chris

Barron: Well, you could have did it. I'd be all right.

Duane

Lowery: So yeah, well, actually, I think that I might consider it.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, well, maybe they'll all do it again now since you're thinking about it.

Duane

Lowery: So, but I thought I'd wait and commit to until I could get you to go with me.

Chris

Barron: Well, that's probably not going to happen, so have fun. But so, well, hey, you know, We probably should get to business here, but I did want to kind of start out with kind of where we're, we're at in the world as things definitely are different still continuing with this coronavirus and things. And, and, uh, you know, we talked a little bit for just literally a minute when I called you to try to figure out what we want to talk about today. And we kind of touched on, you know, we'll hit on the report. Definitely last week the markets had some pressure. Talk a little bit about China. Obviously, you brought up the weather. There's things to talk about there and then crop conditions. I'd like to just give you a real quick, if it's all right, Duane, we flew out of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, but we flew back into Des Moines.

I can tell you that when we drove from Des Moines back to eastern Iowa, it was the best crop I've ever seen in that route ever until we got about to our place. Last week, there was areas where, in our area, La Porte City, Iowa, a few places that got over 10 inches of rain in just a couple of days. We were in an area where we didn't quite get 10, but we've had a couple of 3 to 5-inch rains over the course of a couple weeks. It's actually caused some of our crop to go backwards a little bit.— but it's amazing how, you know, different it is. You know, you can go through some areas and it's just a phenomenal crop, and then there's pockets where it's not as good. But I think all in all, it just looks to me like, and feels like talking to clients, that we could have one of the best crops we've ever grown in the U.S. What's your thought on that, or am I crazy on that one?

Duane

Lowery: Well, I would say that Crops in most areas are doing very well. It is correct that places have had excessive moisture reach the tipping point last week, and yours are not the only crops that went backwards. But in terms of central part of the Midwest, the, the, that area of excessive moisture where we went backwards probably was largely confined to northeast Iowa, I would imagine. You got areas in the east that finally got some beneficial moisture. As far as the potential for it to be the best crop ever, that's a very crowded idea, and at the present time, there's probably some merit in that, but things can change. Things are— crops are not always made by the 20th of June, despite a lot of times the market goes down a pathway expecting that and believing that. But the thing that I see that's interesting in terms of weather is less about precip and more about temperature.

The last several days, the temperature forecasts have continued to work higher. The forecast over the next 2 weeks, you know, here today on Sunday versus what it was on Friday, has got a warmer theme. There's precip problems probably going to develop again in the Plains states and the southwestern Midwest, and we're going to have some very hot temperatures. And I wonder how long these temperatures are going to continue to be a warmer-than-normal theme. And I'm mostly interested in the nighttime temperatures. We've got a large percentage of the area over the next 2 weeks forecast that is going to be— have nighttime temperatures above 70 degrees, and this has been going on in the forecast for the last several days also. And in 2010, we had a production shortfall that later, after the fact, was blamed on too warm of nighttime temperatures. Wasn't it 2 years ago, Chris, in '17?

That we had a record national crop, and that was— came in larger than expected by several bushels an acre, I think. And that was later on blamed on, or given credit to, the cooler than normal temperatures. And if you take a look at our current temperature pattern that we're on and the forecast pattern that we're on and compare that to '17, we're significantly warmer than 17. And if you could do a comparison of nighttime temperatures now in the forecast over the next couple weeks and compare that to what was going on in 2010, we're actually above the pattern set forth at this time in 2007— or in 2010, when we had detrimental yield and surprisingly poor yields, and that was given credit to too warm of nighttime temperatures.

So I'm interested by the temperature outlook, and I think that over the next, uh, oh, let's just say 2 weeks, I think the weather, uh, some of these recent rains are going to be forgotten about from the market standpoint. We're going to start to focus on some of the heat, and I think we'll probably start to focus on the lack of moisture forecast in the Plains and the southwestern Midwest. And I'm not so sure we won't have another weather scare, or a weather scare, still yet in front of us. And so I find the weather interesting, and I think that we shouldn't view the marketplace as zeroed in on the best-ever crop, and that's the place they're going to stay. I agree with you. That that's where people are at right now, but I think forecast creates a window where that attitude might change.

Chris

Barron: It just seems like the funds or whatever, for some reason, the— and you brought it up, you know, that nighttime temperature is one thing, but it's like they look at the temperature and the rainfall and it's got to be hot and/or dry and and theoretically almost it needs to be both. And I confirm what— I concur what you were talking about 2017, but what made that crop was realistically was the last half of August and the first part of September, generally speaking, because we had such a slow fill period that we just packed on test weight to no end in most areas. I mean, there's exceptions to that, but You know, the market— does the market really even recognize that though?

I mean, if we get an opportunity for some strength sometime here, isn't it probably going to be more just tied to hot-dry, hot or dry, or the combination of the two that maybe might give us a little bit of a bumper? Or is there more than that there potentially?

Duane

Lowery: Well, I don't know if I have much of an opinion about the funds and the sophistication of their understanding of fundamentals. I'm not sure they're really driven by that. That, so it's hard to comment on that. But I think that what you said about '17 is correct about the end, how the season finished, but the overall cooler temperature theme of which that finishing part was part of that also needs to be put in context and contrast with what we're seeing now. I mean, our, like I said, our forecasts are continuing to creep up for several days here on the, on these forecast temperatures, including the nighttime temperatures. And I see that as a concern. I think it's scientifically a legitimate concern, and nobody might care about looking at it yet from that perspective, but I think over the next several days that we might develop some level of interest in that.

That's just my opinion. We got— the reports from USDA Tuesday, they're on everybody's mind right at the present time. Nobody has a strong feeling what it's going to be, but virtually everyone believes what you said earlier, is that we're on path to have a record crop. And there are— there is no critical thinking going on here, and there's no diversity of thinking. It is all one uniformity thought. And, uh, My experience says that, that, that should be seen as a warning sign that deserves some level of respect. Last week we had Dec corn made new contract lows. We spent 2.5 months traversing sideways with some sort of an attempt at an upward slant to that sideways trade, only to, at maximum, I believe we had about a 20-cent rally, 23-cent rally, something like that. From contract lows.

In 5 days, they slid out of that range and went to make new contract lows, and they did that just in front of a report. Again, I think this is a very significant warning to bears from the standpoint that it's, it's going to take a lot to live up to that, to maintain that level or trajectory. Number one, they got to avoid a bullish surprise, which based on the last few years of history, that's probably seems like a safe bet. They also have to maintain a favorable non-threatening weather forecast. When I look at the pre— or the temperature outlook, and to extent, to some extent, the precip outlook, I'm not sure that's going to be an easy task either. The areas prior to last week's rain that were considered the most dry were in the eastern Midwest, And they had scattered rains, but some had very good rains, some pockets missed out, but overall I think they did relatively well.

But today's forecast for precip in the eastern Midwest versus where it was Friday, it's quite a bit drier than it was on Friday. And those areas are going to continue to need moisture that wasn't a crop-saving or crop-making rain event, and the temperatures are going to get warmer here over the next couple weeks. So these rains, I think, will be relatively quickly forgotten and replaced with some new level of concern. And these USDA reports, um, if there's anything that deviates from a bearish-only mindset, um, suddenly I think the trade is just too overwhelmingly crowded with one-sided thinking here, and that creates an environment that isn't guaranteed to rally, but it certainly creates a very dry bed of kindling that wouldn't take much of a spark to generate it. And considering how tight a range we were in 2.5 months, now we've made new contract lows in 5 days.

Uh, keep in mind, a 20-cent rally here is about all it would take to tape to be at the highest point you've been in that entire 2.5-month window. So there's, there's a very fine line here, and the, the bears are under the assumption right now that we are just going to continue to work lower. I think that's a dangerous assumption myself.

Chris

Barron: A couple weeks ago, you know, you were talking— I mean, you I'll give you a little credit here instead of throwing you under the bus, but you were kind of calling out, you know, the risk of, of this price pressure. You know, we were talking a little bit about old crop and, and that, you know, taking advantage of the price level and where the basis was at. We have now seen some basis improvement. What's your thoughts for for some of these operations that are still sitting here on some old crop, you know, corn and/or soybeans, but corn in particular. What's your thought there on considering, you know, what are some options that might make sense in the next few weeks if they need to kind of keep moving some of this old crop?

Duane

Lowery: Well, if somebody is still sitting on old crop, far be it for me to tell him now to throw in the towel hours before a USDA report. And run the risk of that suddenly becoming a, you know, a bullish surprise or a not bearish enough surprise. And I guess my thought is, if somebody still has old crop corn and they haven't priced it, I would wait. I see the forecast as offering ingredients to create a weather concern over the next couple of weeks. I, I think the report is going to have a difficult time living up to what's built into the cake with last week's price action. So if a guy has already kept it to this point, I don't— I would not want to encourage him to sell it. I would say you've made— you've made your bet, and you might as well wait and see how this plays out.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, basis has improved. Do you lock the basis or not?

Duane

Lowery: I mean, I would— I would be, uh, I would be willing to do that. I think there's merit in that, and I think there's definitely some downside risk in basis, and it's hard to maybe explain some of the basis strength other than the fact that maybe there's more of this corn sitting out here that, that hasn't moved yet. I, I find a lot has moved. I find a lot of the stuff that was on basis contract that had to be priced by Friday in many cases I think a lot of that was priced and not rolled, but at this snapshot in time, if you've got old crop grain you haven't marketed yet, I wouldn't— I would not encourage you to make that sale before this report. I would just encourage you to wait.

You've waited this long, and now you're going into an important weather time, and the report seems to me like it's leaning so heavily on the negative side, it's just going to be difficult to live up to that. Even a neutral report right now will cause a positive reaction post-report. You can't, you know, so I would not make sales here. I did advocate that a couple weeks ago, but still the market has plummeted so quickly into contract lows here that it's just way too crowded. Everybody's on the same side. I don't see anybody taking the other side or giving any respect for the other side. So that would be my thought. I would, I would say I want to add one caveat. I'm talking about corn. I have, I have concern about beans. I have concern that beans might not get favorable data from USDA. I have concern that beans could possibly experience some independent weakness.

And beans are just a week or week and a half ago, we were at the basically the highest levels you've been since the end of March. And so, you know, I might, I might have more respect for downside risk here in beans.

Chris

Barron: Well, and that kind of ties in, and we can tie this together with the China trade agreement, but, you know, there's been these orders And then you hear, well, the deliveries aren't occurring, but there's orders there, whatever. What are you hearing on the trade agreement with China? What's the— from what you're hearing, what's the likelihood of getting anywhere close to that? And how does that affect the soybeans? I mean, what do we have some hope there, or what's your thoughts?

Duane

Lowery: Well, I'm not sure my thoughts on that are that important, and I'm not sure what I'm hearing are really— that is really that important. But there's been a consistent theme from Chinese officials and a consistent theme from U.S. officials from the beginning all the way to present that they think China is going to fulfill their commitment, and they have kind of seemed to maybe push back the date on what the— where this 12 months starts and ends, but Even though the pace hasn't been as fast as we want to see it, there are some that argue that we still have a pathway forward for them to fulfill this agreement. Now, a lot of people don't agree with that, but if all the Chinese officials and all the U.S. officials that are in the know, that are supposed to know exactly what's in Phase 1, continue to tell us that they're going to honor it.

Either they are lying, or they're being duped, or they're telling us the truth. You can take your pick out how you want to— what you want to believe out of that. But there's been a lot of adversity and a lot of barbs thrown, um, and I would argue that more on the U.S. side towards China than on China's side towards the U.S. And China has taken these barbs, and they may have taken them You know, they may have held off purchases, I don't know, but they have taken them in the standpoint they have not walked away, they have not withdrawn their ambassador, they have not thrown a tissy fit and said, "Forget you, U.S., we're not gonna have this trade agreement." None of that has happened. In fact, I would argue they showed that restraint during the negotiation process and they made the agreement basically towards the end of the year in an environment that was very hostile towards China.

And so I see no sign that China does not want this trade agreement. And then if from a political standpoint, if you're China, why would you back out of this trade agreement now? You know, you're trying to get past a U.S. election. If you didn't like Trump, you didn't like his tactics and you were going to maybe possibly pull away from this trade agreement, I don't think you would make that decision until after you got to pass the election, because if all of a sudden there's going to be a new administration, if that happens to be the case, you don't want to give them the opportunity to point a finger at China saying, "You don't honor your agreements." They could at least maintain this going into that. I don't think China's gonna back out. Now, their pace of purchases may continue to disappoint. Hey, maybe they continue to disappoint in past the election. I don't know.

But I think if you look at China's overall purchases and global soy demand, soybean demand is really good, and their usage and demand pace seems to be setting records. So But I don't think there's a problem here with demand. And granted, they're buying South American supplies, but there's— that's a finite number of the South American supplies. And at some point in time, if China gobbles it all up, what's the rest of the world users going to do that typically bought Chinese supplies? Because every single month, China's importing a record number of South American— a record quantity of South American supplies. So I don't— I think the demand outlook is relatively good. I'm just— can maybe have some concerns about beans on a supply perspective in the near term from Tuesday's report.

Longer term, I think the soybean outlook, price outlook, and the demand outlook is, is on pretty solid footing and quite good, I'd say.

Chris

Barron: Well, and we talked about the crop conditions. It looks to me like the soybeans, you know, this year in comparison to last year, we had a lot earlier planting date. And, you know, the soybeans didn't look as phenomenal as the corn did that we were— that we've looked at and just been talking to clients and things. But we could be pushing out a huge crop here too on the soybean side of things, couldn't we? Is that you know, how that all fit into the mix.

Duane

Lowery: Well, I don't know. I'll defer judgment to you on that part, but as far as the planting dates are concerned, I think the effect of an early planting date was significantly neutralized by the cool temperatures that we experienced for the 6 weeks following the planting dates. And so I'm not exactly sure how to correlate that. I'll defer that to you, but it's hard for me to believe that we have a big advantage due to planting dates when we spent such a large amount of time in either slow emergence, slow development, or stagnation. Does that factor in at all, Chris, or not?

Chris

Barron: A little bit. I still think, you know, I mean, I'm asking you a question that we're going to know probably in August better because The August weather is going to have, you know, is going to be the telltale sign of, you know, what kind of potential is there. Probably like we were talking with the corn, you know, we just got to go through some time here yet and kind of see. But I, you know, it just looks to me like stuff's healed up from the cold temperatures. Things are set up and, you know, it's just going to be driven a lot by what we were talking about earlier on weather. You know, we going to have to have rain and not excessive heat, and a lot of that time will tell, I guess. Anything else on the report, both with, you know, with corn, soybeans?

I mean, it's a stocks and, you know, planted acreage report, so is there anything there that we didn't talk about more specifically on that that needs to be watched out for thought through on either side of the stocks or the planted acreage report?

Duane

Lowery: I guess I think it'll be probably difficult to get a big change in stocks numbers that's market worthy, or at least supportive of the market. In terms of the acreage, the trade is expecting Well, how shall I say this? The average trade guess has it pegged in at like 1.5 to 1.7 million acres less corn, and they've plugged in pretty much, you know, about 1.2 to 1.5 million more bean acres. And I don't know where that falls. I don't know anybody that's got any strong conviction on that.

But I'm a little suspicious that the corn acres, even though the history doesn't back up this statement in terms of farmers' traditional changes, I think this might have been a year that the farmer did grow less corn than expected, and I think this might be a year that there are more beans than expected, and I don't know how much of those changes occurred in the heart of the Midwest, but I think in some of the peripheral regions, I think that change may have been more common. And so I think if there's a surprise, me personally, I think it might be that it's less corn acres and it's more than expected bean acres.

Chris

Barron: Let me ask you this too. A lot of these reports have a tendency to be a flash in the pan, so they, you know, it's a positive or a negative report either way. You can get a bump, or you get the reaction either way. So like you said, it could be a neutral report with a positive reaction, but that reaction a lot of times is short-lived, and then we go right back to all the other quote-unquote stuff that's driving the news, driving the market. Is there anything there that comes out of this that sets a more permanent tone, or not really?

Duane

Lowery: Well, you're correct that a lot of times the reaction is short-lived. But a lot of that depends on what the background was going into it. In the current environment, the background cannot be escaped. The negativity towards corn and the bearish sentiment towards corn and the bearish positioning towards corn is virtually 100% universal. So if there is a surprise to that, I doubt— I don't think that will be a short-lived reaction. It might be a temporary reaction, reaction, but not necessarily short-lived. We got way too many people, as in virtually everybody, lined up the same way. In the case of the beans, if there is a bearish reaction in— or bearish reaction to the report data, I think it's important to realize that while the trade has been one-sidedly bearish towards corn, the trade has been more two-sided towards beans, with maybe a more of a slant towards a positive outlook.

Partly because of potential for China to buy, partly because of new crop carryout levels that have been less than 400 million or flirting with 400 million bushels, and a perception that if the farmers did plant a lot of corn, which again, there's a lot of— is where a lot of people line up, then that also means they planted, you know, less beans than what the prevailing thought process is. So I think people are leaning into beans a little bit on the bullish side, and therefore if you got a bearish surprise in beans and the weather— even though I see weather as offering some concerning aspects on the horizon, those— that horizon isn't necessarily what we're trading today or will be trading on Tuesday or Wednesday morning either, probably.

And so therefore I could see the beans, you know, suffering for a few days and getting more than just a knee-jerk reaction to the report if it did have a bearish slant. Otherwise, if the data from the reports are largely neutral or somewhat close to neutral, then the focus is all going to be on weather. And if we have continued chances of precip and the temperature themes don't look as warm in the forecast that have come out in the days following the report, then yeah, nothing's going to look good or feel good, and the price tone will be heavy. But I do see, like I said earlier, I see a concern in the weather out there, and I think that that might become a storyline in the days ahead. And I think that it's going to be very difficult for the market to live up to the level of negativity from the report that is expected to be in the report by Traders Today.

Chris

Barron: Okay, well, I think we've had a pretty good conversation. We've kind of gone through the report pretty much in detail and, and talked about some of the other key items in the marketplace right now. Any final things as we kind of wrap up this conversation that I haven't asked or we haven't touched on?

Duane

Lowery: Yes, I want to talk a little bit about new crop '21. I talked about that a couple different times over the last couple weeks that we've done this. And, uh, Dec '21 corn now is about 13, 14 cents less than where it was when I talked about it before. I, like I said earlier, I'm not really advocating much of a push to make new sales now after we've fallen that amount going into this report and with the trade so one-sided in its thinking. And while I'm looking at a weather forecast that's concerning. However, I would strongly emphasize again for people to seriously consider the DEEZ 21. And for right now, I would target something at $3.80 or higher, which would require, you know, some bullish price action post-report, I would imagine.

But I would target that zone, and I want people to ask themselves, When they go in to have the meeting with the banker, and it's sometime between September and January, to talk about financing the '21 crop, do you want to be taking the prices offered at that time to use in your cash flow projection, assuming that most everybody listening to this has an opinion that Dec corn is going to be— I'm talking about Dec '20 corn— is going to be below $3, and range— people's ideas range from $2.50 to $2.80, but they all seem to think it's going to be less than $3. If Dec '20 is less than $3, you're going to be talking about Dec '21 less than $3.40, and you're going to be having to use a cash price of, you know, not much above $3 a bushel. I don't think that conversation goes very well.

If you are— happen to be fortunate enough to be given a weather scare here over the next 2 or 3 weeks and/or a USDA report on Tuesday that's not as bearish as what everybody said, and then we have a short covering response to that, if that happens to unfold, a $3.80 or higher December '21 price, it seems to me that that looks like an attractive sales to have on the books to make that conversation for financing the '21 crop go a lot easier. And I think that there's merit in taking an aggressive price protection stance on that for a lot of reasons, and everybody will evaluate how they think their own meeting will go with that lender. If they don't think they'll have any problem with that lender either way, then that's fine, do whatever you want.

If you think that that's a very pivotal conversation that, uh, a $3.80 futures versus a $3.30 futures might have a lot of bearing on what your operation looks like in that next year, then I would recommend that, uh, you take a survival instinct approach to this and take a, uh, a marketing approach that might be quite aggressive in taking price protection on the '21 crop and then thinking that you will find an opportunity at a later time to maybe offset that stance with some other option purchase or something else. But seems to me like the last place you want to be is have corn prices be where the vast majority of people think they will be by the time you get into harvest, because that number, if people get what they think they're going to get, is going to translate into a very pathetic 2021 cash flow projection.

Chris

Barron: Mm-hmm. Now the scary part for going into next year is going to see where that insurance level ends up at. And we've had a pretty good run of— and again, this year we have the same setup going on that we look at with our client base— is the insurance coverage levels pretty stout as far as keeping people from going backwards. Too much, or in some cases maybe not at all. And if this insurance number in '21 comes in, you know, 40 cents less than what it was this year, it's gonna— it is, and I would concur, is gonna, gonna be a definitely a concerning issue for sure.

Duane

Lowery: And I agree, and there I think that's another strong argument to take an aggressive pricing stance if you're able to get a weather bump up in the areas that I mentioned here over the next 2 or 3 weeks, because that is going to be your only way to establish a price for it. You know, crop insurance won't be available till next spring, unless you look at margin protection, which most people never even heard of that crop insurance version. But even that figure won't be set until prices for average between mid-August and mid-September So that also might fall in the category of the timeframe when prices are still depressed. So if you happen to get a bump up post-report, throw in a little weather, and you can get that Dec '21 up into that, you know, $3.80 area or anything above $3.80, I think some serious consideration has to be given to looking at '21 from a survival standpoint.

Chris

Barron: Yeah, we've started to look at that with a few people, and that's something probably we need to do a little better job of too, because you would be able to— if you made some of those assumptions, you're likely to have a PLC payment that gets added onto that theoretical $3.80 price on that DEES 21, and possibly some other numbers. And we'd have to, you know, every individual is a little unique and different. I definitely would want to make sure everybody runs their, like you said, Dwayne, their own individual numbers to kind of see what, what that looks like and what the shortfall is there, and then if that's made up by another area like the PLC payment or some other things too in that regard.

As far as other crops, soybeans, wheat, whatever, and we get wrapped up here, but Is there, you know, is that same sentiment there for some of these other crops too, or are you talking corn more specifically?

Duane

Lowery: Are you talking about for '21?

Chris

Barron: Yep. For the—

Duane

Lowery: I am primarily concerned about the corn. I'm less concerned about beans. And I, you know, the wheat, you know, we sit here with almost half of an annual U.S. production in in U.S. carryout in wheat, and that's where we've been for a few years, and it doesn't look like it changes very much. And I don't know, I'm not sure how to look at the wheat, but from— in terms of corn versus beans focused on '21, I am much more focused on the corn aspect than I am on the soybean. And I would— that's where I would put my majority of my efforts in forward pricing if I decided that I wanted to do that.

Chris

Barron: Gotcha. Well, hey, thanks, Duane. And this quarterly stocks and planning history report coming out on Tuesday, if there's any major exciting news, maybe we'll touch base and kind of give everybody an update if there's any kind of a big surprise one way or the other. Does that work for you?

Duane

Lowery: Yes, I think we should do that.

Chris

Barron: Okay. That sounds good. Hey, Dwayne, appreciate your time, and it's good to be back and to get on the road here tomorrow and start working with guys and seeing kind of what the numbers are looking like. And we'll see what this report does, and we'll talk to you again soon.

Duane

Lowery: All right, thanks, Chris.

Chris

Barron: You bet. And thanks everybody for listening, and we will catch you next time on the Ag View Pitch. Thanks for joining us on today's episode of the EggView Pitch. As always, you can reach out to us at cbarron@agviewsolutions.com or duanel@netins.net.

Duane

Lowery: We'll catch you next time on the EggView Pitch.