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Ridin' the storm out! Coronavirus and its current impact on agriculture

Hosted by Chris Barron · with Duane Lowry

About This Episode

Recorded days into the 2020 shutdowns, Chris Barron and Duane Lowry start with what a farm can actually control. Freight and input supply looked likely to keep moving, so the real exposure was people. Their advice is to cross-train now, before fieldwork starts: if the only sprayer operator goes down on day three of corn planting, who runs it? They also raise disinfecting tractor cabs, writing down standard procedures, and using kids home from four weeks of school closures as extra labor.

Sole proprietors get their own warning. If one person hauls seed, runs the planter and runs the sprayer, the contingency plan has to live outside the farm: write down every responsibility and walk a neighbor or two through it in advance. On borrowing, the Fed had just cut to zero to 0.25 percent, yet mortgage rates rose the next day. Variable short-term loans could commonly drop about a point, with some banks waiting until April 1.

The bigger opportunity, they argue, is restructuring. Stretching intermediate debt over a longer amortization protects working capital and lowers the annual payment, and a longer schedule never stops an early payoff. On markets, Lowry treats the fiscal and monetary response as inflationary and points to 2008, when crude bottomed near $30 and then strengthened for years. He also flags the March 7 Saudi-Russia crude fight, not the virus, as the deeper problem for prices.

Now is the time to do that cross-training. Now is the time to come up with those contingency plans.

Duane Lowry

Key Takeaways

  1. Cross-train before fieldwork starts and write standard operating procedures now, while the calendar is still something you control.

  2. The Fed cut to zero to 0.25 percent, but mortgage rates went up the next day. Variable short-term notes were the ones likely to fall about 1 percent, some not until April 1.

  3. Sit down with the lender after planting and restructure short, intermediate and long-term debt, not just the rate. A longer amortization lowers the payment and still allows early payoff.

  4. Lowry reads the combined Fed, Treasury and congressional response as inflationary, with agriculture and energy leading, and says marketing plans should keep flexibility rather than closing out every bushel.

  5. China's domestic soybean price rose about 19 percent, roughly $1.50 a bushel, between February 25 and taping, suggesting depleted inventories that have to be rebuilt.

  6. Practical advice for old crop: step back from the edge of the cliff, give the market time before the bins have to be emptied, and cut the 24/7 news to 15 minutes at noon and 15 at night.

Full Transcript

Chris: And it all comes down to this. 2 on, 2 out, bottom of the 9th. The Farmers lead by 1. Full count, here comes the play at the plate, and it's the Ag View Pitch! <LYRICS>On a full moon night in the Rocky Mountain winter.</LYRICS> Welcome to the Ag View Pitch video, and we're here today, Chris Barron and Dewayne Lowery, and we just want to have a little conversation here kind of about the coronavirus and some of the crazy things that are going on in the environment, both on the marketing side, on the personal health side, and then just have a little conversation around agriculture as an essential industry and some of the things that I know there's a lot of concerns out there, Dewayne, with I think a lot of producers of am I going to get my inputs, you know, what do I need to be doing differently from a health standpoint.

There's a lot of livestock operations out there that are concerned with both their employees from a health standpoint and then also I think as we think think about all of the challenges from the packing plants and just keeping everything moving both on the input side and on the output side of the business. So with that, Dwayne, let's, let's kind of start having that conversation, I guess.

Duane

Lowery: Well, I think the, the entire industry along with the nation is struggling with something we've never had to struggle with before, and everybody's trying to try to get it, get it right, do the best they can in the safety and economic concerns. There's a certain level of panic and emotion that gets elevated in these type of situations that, that for a period of time, usually a brief period of time at the beginning, things become, you know, a little irrational. But then we wind things down to get more comfortable with the situation. In terms of the inputs availability, trucking My understanding is that all the freight lines are going to operate as normal, and it's very important for warehouses and all this to operate.

I think agriculture is going to be an industry where our inputs and the transportation of them and everything associated with that, I think, is going to go on without any problems. I think the problem and concern is probably most directly affecting the producer is probably on their own personal level and their family and their employees' level and trying to figure out how we're going to best handle that. Right now, in rural America, it would be easy to feel less concerned about the threat because the numbers aren't there. We don't have the international airports. We don't have the in-and-out type of relationships with the that volume of people, but over time, you know, our numbers are going to go up as well in terms of cases. It's just a matter of numbers and the amount of time it takes.

So by the time we get into spring, we may very well be dealing with numbers that are more concerning on a local level, and, you know, it's going to be important for us to figure out how to navigate that.

Chris: Well, and I think one of the things we talked about offline a little bit too was just the idea of paying attention to our own personal health, right? Keeping distance. So I don't know if I'm far enough away from you here yet, but maybe, maybe it's, it's keeping distance away from people. It's not shaking hands. It's keeping your hands clean and all that kind of stuff that we've heard a thousand times that we're all trying to get better at, right? And, and I think the other thing is, is just, you know, whether you're an ag supplier or a producer, on the ag supplier side of things, it's having some contingency plans plans both on the supplier side and on the farming side. Because if somebody gets ill, you really do need to quarantine yourself and be away from your other employees or family members or whatever it is.

Well, what happens if that's day 3 of corn planting time or you're in the field and you're trying to, you know, drill wheat, whatever it is fieldwork-wise, you know, are you quarantined in the tractor or do you pollute that tractor and another employee gets in this. We need to all in our own farm operations to be stepping back and thinking of some contingency plans and how do we delegate some of the workload that we have. You know, if you have one sprayer operator and that sprayer operator gets sick, what's the contingency plan? Have you had a conversation with your local co-op?

And, or, you know, are you cross-training some other people right now before we get busy in the field to make sure that we can keep all the equipment equipment move in and that we have the people in place because we certainly, we think we're somewhat immune because like you said, you know, we're in rural areas and so, you know, it maybe doesn't feel like it's that big a deal other than, you know, you go to the grocery store, there's no toilet paper left to buy anywhere. But, you know, those are some things that, that I think, you know, from a contingency planning standpoint, from a personal health standpoint, and just to do the right thing for our our families, I think, as well. And in a lot of farm operations, schools are closed now for, what, 4 weeks in a lot of cases, and potentially longer than that.

So, you know, I've talked to a few of our clients, you know, hey, I'm going to have more labor around this spring than I thought I was going to have because now the kids are home. Uh, so, you know, so are we cross-training some people? Like I said, you know, maybe you got a, you know, a 17-year-old that's home that's a junior in high school that maybe needs to be learning how to run the planter or run— how to run some of the equipment, or, you know, what are we doing to cross-train? What are we doing to plan for contingencies?

Duane

Lowery: Well, right now we're dealing with a situation that there are a lot of things that are out of our control we don't know how to deal with, but fortunately there are a few things in our control, and right now the calendar is in our control from the standpoint that now is the time to do that cross-training. Now is the time to come up with those contingency plans. And, you know, I think the two biggest part of that would be the protection of yourself and, and, and of your employees. And that breaks down into two parts, and that is what's your contingency plan for being able to clean the cab of a tractor? How are we going to disinfect that? And then also the cross-training. If somebody has always been your planter operator and all of a sudden they go down You know, it's going to be difficult to train them while you're sick. And so now's the time to do that.

And those are places where we can be proactive and we can take a little bit of control over our destiny at a time when we feel like we don't have a lot of control. So as far as our 6 feet of attrition, you know, if this is a war on attrition, I'm in the category where I'm the most vulnerable. So you can, you can— yeah. You'll, uh, suffer the consequences, but you'll still win.

Chris: Well, hopefully. I, I did have an interesting conversation with a doctor last night and probably need to follow up with a podcast or some kind of information with him as well, um, just on a lot of these things. And that's kind of what brought a lot of this to mind, of maybe just having a conversation so people are thinking about some of the, some of the different things. But, you know, you talked about, um, contingency planning, and one other thing that came to mind when you were you were talking about cleaning tractor cabs and all that kind of things. You think about a lot of farm operations are sole proprietors, right? So you got, you know, the person that runs the planter, that might be the same person that runs the sprayer, the same person that goes and gets the seed, the same person, you know.

So some of these operations out here that are sole proprietors, what are you— what's your plan? Because you might be able to work through a sickness, but you look at the average age of the producers, and like you said, you know, you you look at what this virus is doing, it attacks people that are older more severely than it attacks people that are younger. And so, you know, back to the contingency plans, if you are an individual producer working on your own, are there neighbors, are there other family members that are out of school or things that are going on? You know, I can't— I don't think we can emphasize it enough, have a contingency plan. Hopefully you don't need it.

Duane

Lowery: You know, what would happen if in that case, you know, one of the contingency plan would be to write down all the different responsibilities and what that looks like, and then maybe talk to the neighbor or a couple of neighbors, say, in case something happens here, I'm not able to, to function, this is what I'm going to want you to do, right? And things like that can be time well spent if it's ever needed. And if it's not needed, no harm.

Chris: It's a great time to write down some SOPs, right? Write down some standard procedures of what you do getting the planner ready when you're out running. All of those kind of things I think are just good things to think about. So, you know, that was kind of the first part of our conversation, you know, around the personal health, around some of those kind of things. Let's transition a little bit over to some of the challenges, which in my mind a lot of times are opportunities. And one of the things that I want to bring bring up that we've gotten a lot of questions on in the last couple of days is around the idea of interest rate. So interest rate is, is something that, you know, all of a sudden you hear, okay, 0 to 0.025 interest rate now that the Fed changed on last Sunday.

So if that's the case, um, what we've seen even yesterday in talking to several lenders is that actually mortgage rate went up yesterday, you know, so where they could borrow money was actually not lower even though the Fed lowered the rate. And so, I mean, let's talk a little bit about, you know, maybe being patient, working with the lenders, and just because these rates change doesn't mean it's an immediate thing. Is that right?

Duane

Lowery: Well, I don't know. I think it depends on what type of loan you're talking about. I think the variable rate short-term loans My understanding is— I won't say most or many, I'll just say it's not uncommon for banks to be able to lower those rates 1%. Now some of those may not want to start that until the 1st of April, but I think that, that 1% is going to be passed along very quickly to those types of mortgages. In terms of longer range mortgages, you might be correct that they went up.. But my guess is, based on what the Fed has done in the past, based on what the Fed, the Treasury Department, even Congress is doing and contemplating even while we're taping this, it's very highly likely that the Fed will attack those longer-term rates and try to buy those down and bring those down as well.

So if you have a longer-term mortgage or that you would like to get a cheaper rate on, If it doesn't work today, continue to do all your due diligence, do your homework, be prepared for it, because it would appear to me to be highly likely that that will— opportunity will present itself in, in the, in the weeks ahead. It'll take— it may take time for the Fed to, to launch the next program, but it appears to me like every program is going to be coming, and that's going to be one of them.

Chris: But, but I think additionally to that, Dwayne, probably from what we see anyway, is a lot of farm operations have their short-term borrowed funds, they have their intermediate borrowed funds, and they have their long-term. And to me, what this is looking like, and we discussed this, but it's looking to me like there's going to be an opportunity, I think, in the few months ahead, you know, maybe after planting season, for a lot of the growers to really sit down with the lender and have a conversation.

Not just about interest rate alone, but about restructuring, you know, the short, intermediate, long-term money, because we really don't know the fallout economically, both on the ag sector side of things and the general economy and all this, to the point where maybe we need to be taking some of this intermediate expense and debt repayment structure and stretch that out over a longer period of time in addition to the lower interest rates.

So it's created an opportunity to not only lower interest rate, but I think also lower our commitment to pay back so that we can make sure that our working capital is sufficient and strong enough, and also to make sure that, that we can cash flow in the event of lower commodity prices or other financial issues that may be family has that all of a sudden our overhead costs are more expensive and our cost of production on that side of the equation is a little higher. What's your thought there?

Duane

Lowery: Excellent points. I certainly agree with that. The Fed and their policies that they're undertaking and what I'm certain they will undertake and what they're doing in the regulation side of the banking part of the business, they are going to be creating an environment that is favorable for the producer to, to develop a different amortization schedule. And my understanding and perception is the bank is going to be all in for that because it's a way of improving your cash flow picture by lowering those payments. And if the Fed is going to provide a structure through regulation and policies offered through the Fed that they can have more liquidity in those longer-term rates, be able to lower the the interest rate on them and the availability of funds for those longer-term rates that go to your point of lowering your annual cost.

I think that opportunity is going to present, and I think it's something that farmers and businessmen are going to want to take advantage of and be prepared to take advantage of it. And then just because you set up a schedule for a longer amortization, that doesn't prevent you from paying it off on a shorter schedule. Schedule, but it doesn't force you to have the obligation to do so. So it gives you a lot of flexibility, and if times were tough and the cash flows don't work out and the price structure ends up being something different than I'm hoping it's going to be, it puts you in a position to be able to handle it with your financial instruments. So I think that's very important. Again, now is a good time to be doing that before you get in the field, and it's going to be important to kind of have that set to go.

And I also, my understanding and perception from talking to lenders, I think they want to do this. I think there's a good chance they will initiate calls to producers saying, come in, let's talk, let's do this.

Chris: I think they want to do that, but at the same time, I think there's going to be an influx and then there's going to be a, you know, go the other way once everybody gets in the field. So, you know, those rainy days or those opportunities, like As you said, to be having this conversation I think is real important, but I think it's going to take a little time for the throughput of lenders to be able to work all of their clients through that process too.

Duane

Lowery: Correct. But, you know, this is one of the examples where your profit manager really pays dividends because you put people in a position through their record keeping that they can quickly accomplish some of these things. And if they're not using your system now is a good time to look at it because this is where the extra time and efforts in getting something like that set up will pay instantaneous dividends on that will continue on an annual basis. Not to mention all the other benefits that always occur from property management.

Chris: Right. Well, and right now too, it feels like, you know, what do we do? Well, some of the things we need to be doing right now, to your point of looking at property managers, looking at cost of production. So I'm going to use that as a segue into another question that I want to throw your way, Dwayne, is as we look at our cost of production and as we think about, you know, going into spring and we're a ways away from a weather market yet because, you know, we're just not quite there yet. Another week or two and we start talking about weather impacts potentially and hopefully a little less about the coronavirus, although that's the topic now. What's your thought as we look forward to the markets? I mean, right now it's almost impossible to have any kind of conversation and say, well, we can expect this and we can expect that, because every hour there's new news.

Duane

Lowery: Well, I would start off that conversation by saying this: at no time in history can we look back and find this type of volatility that the black swan type of events, the sudden change in market valuations that in the end don't prove to provide opportunities. So number one, we have to look at the situation and be willing to recognize there will be opportunities and what are those opportunities. And so at every time we've had one, these cutbacks in valuations, whether you're talking about stock markets or whatever, it leads to opportunities. That's the first thing I'd say. The second thing I would say, and I've said this before over the— even podcasts a few weeks ago— that in the end, when the panic and the fear is over and we've gotten through this, which we're going to get through this, there is no doubt about whether we will.

The timing might be in question, but we will get through it. And once we're through that, we will have found that the Fed has been been aggressive. They increased their balance sheet. They lowered interest rates. Congress, whether it's the US Congress or any government body on any country on the planet, they're all going to have fiscal stimulus measures. They're all going to have their central banks do stimulative measures. In the end, all of that is inflationary, and that is a big thing that should not be forgotten. To the extent that it's not inflationary, is only to the extent that it's not successful. People want to compare this to 2008. In some respects, I understand that because of the stock market fall. But you need to recognize in 2008 we had deteriorating economic conditions that were already surfacing in 2007.

The stock market had already started to weaken because of that outlook, and by the time we got to the end of 2008, we were in a freefall, okay, as it became more urgent and more serious. Well, we don't have an economic problem that we're entering into this. We are experiencing an economic period of uncertainty, concern. We might have a recession by all their statistical measures. We could have contraction in the economy for a short period of time, but there's a very strong likelihood that not only the U.S. but the global economy will come out of this with a— only a temporary drawdown and a slowdown, and then we could come up back robustly. And if that is the case, and if that's how it happens, then all these Fed policies, Treasury policies, all the fiscal stimulus from Congress, this is all very inflationary.

And if you go back and look in 2008 when we had this crash and we had all these concerns And at that time there was a panic involved there too. What was the outcome? The outcome was that after crude oil got to $30 a barrel, the crude oil market continued to strengthen for the next few years despite the fact that the economy was still a drag. The crude oil did not increase because the economy was robust and we're consuming energy. It increased because of the Fed policies and the amount of money pumped into the System, system. and that they were pushing— they wanted inflation at that time, and crude oil was one of the components. Agriculture historically is another sector of the economy that benefits from inflation and is used as a, as a way of, a vehicle of generating more inflation. We have exactly the same situation here.

Even before coronavirus, we had the Fed saying for months, and with a heightened sense of urgency in more recent months that they want inflation. And so every policy that we have here sets that wheels in motion. It doesn't matter if for a period of time measured in weeks or, or a couple of months we sit here and churn and we're, we're dealing with unknown, we're suffering from depressed prices. These forces that are being unleashed that are inflationary, and there is no question they are inflationary, If they gain traction, and I would argue it's highly likely that they will gain traction and have more, far more success gaining traction now than they did in the 2008 crisis because we had our economies in a different position and a more solid foundation now.

As they gain traction, uh, we're going to see that traction manifest itself in a marketplace that might surprise people with how well it performs when you look down the road. And so when it comes to making marketing decisions or any type of financial decisions, the farmer is probably best prepared to understand inflation because if you've been a farmer for any length of time, you've either experienced inflation and you know how that affects land and how it affects inputs and affects the, the selling price, or you've heard your father or grandfather talk about it. And so inflation is a big factor. And if you go back in the '70s when we had some inflation or different times where things went to a new paradigm, the marketing strategies that worked the best were the ones that were crafted with some level of flexibility and less finite conclusion upon the transaction.

There's a, there's a part of marketing that you're trying to secure trying to secure a price floor, a revenue floor, a revenue guarantee, and there's another part of marketing that's trying to capture opportunity. In these types of times, if indeed we end up with some inflationary tendencies, of which I would say agriculture, and I want to say energy, will be the leading forefront of that, then it's going to be important that you have marketing plans that understand that and are prepared for that. That does not diminish the the necessity to protect revenue, to protect your floor price, or any of it. It just means there's another part of this component that you need to be aware of. In terms of the, the energy, I made the comment that I hope or expect the energy to be a component leading us out of here.

One of the biggest things impacting markets now— coronavirus gets the headlines, but it's the crude oil decision by Saudi Arabia, which was a response to Russia that occurred on March 7th. That's the real problem that we're dealing with, and that's the real problem that has the potential to be a long-lasting problem. And when— if you looked at beans and you looked at a Friday settlement from March 6th and you went backwards a few weeks while we're still dealing with coronavirus, you will find that the beans didn't really respond to that in a negative way. They treaded water for a few weeks. It wasn't until the Saudi Arabia-Russia spat with crude oil that sent crude oil to sub-$30 crude and cast a cloud of doubt about, oh my gosh, if we have $30 crude oil or $20 crude oil, that is deflationary and that's not good for anything.

And if you're China and you're in a fragile state of mind in terms of economically, you need a robust global economy for you to come out of it.. So even China, as the world's largest energy importer, doesn't want $20 crude oil. They want something that works for the rest of the economy because the rest of the economy, we're all their customers. We're the ones that buy the stuff they manufacture. So nobody wants this cheap energy. And Saudi Arabia and Russia, if they were intelligent, they don't want it either. They're playing a game of chicken here. I'm hoping—

Chris: They're way below their cost of production right now, right?

Duane

Lowery: They're way below their— they're not below their cost of production, but they're below the revenue they need to balance their budgets to stay in business. Absolutely. I hope that there's enough pressure coming from the financial powerhouses of the world, of which the Fed, the US, the large wealthy entities that are outside the US and inside the US, would put enough pressure on Russia, more so than even Saudi Arabia, to come back to the bargaining table and recognize that it's in their best interest and everybody's best interest if they figure out a way to control their production of crude oil. If they want to take— keep— have it at a price level that hurts the US shale industry, there might be a point where that can happen and still be beneficial to to the global economy.

But this $20, $30 crude which is being talked about, which I'm hopeful is not going to be the case, but is being talked about now, that would be a real threat to the inflation and that would make everything the Fed is doing, every fiscal policy any other country's doing, it would make it a very difficult chore.

Chris: So having said all that, a lot of this for a lot of producers has to do with timing a little bit as we sit here and look at old crop, you know, so there's producers out there probably with a high percentage of old crop yet that they're hanging on to and maybe some producers out there with a lower percentage, you know, and you're describing theoretically, or at least from what I'm hearing as a producer, a little bit of hope from the standpoint of if the inflation kicks in You know, maybe we, we start to come out of this, um, and, you know, maybe some of the funds that have been pulling money out and being on the sidelines start looking at, okay, where's the, the best place to put some money for the upside potential? Maybe it's in the commodities as opposed to the stock market, even to a degree.

Um, as a producer sitting out there with various levels of inventory, are there any suggestions, or what do we be thinking about, what do we be watching so that we can either manage basis or manage price as we move forward in the next few weeks? What should we really be paying attention to, and how quickly should we be acting? I'm asking— I'm throwing you under the bus right now because there's a, there's a timing element to that too. So I'm not asking you to say, okay, this is what we should do, but what should we really be watching so that start to make some decisions. Because, you know, we've talked about this before in other podcasts and other conversations, that the, the most incorrect decisions we make is under fear. And right now, I don't care who you are, we're all fearful to a degree of what we're dealing with. And so, you know, any suggestions there?

That's kind of throwing you under the bus and asking you a pretty heavily loaded question.

Duane

Lowery: That's fine, that's fine. Me and the bus get How long is fine? I would say that the first thing you want to do is take a couple of steps back from the edge of the cliff. Okay? Recognize that there is fear there, there are emotions that's driving markets that tend to exaggerate reason. And virtually every time something like this happens, it reaches a point, usually rather quickly, where everybody realizes that it has gone past reason, another segment sees an opportunity, and all of a sudden things start to stabilize. So that would be the first thing that I would say. But we're a ways from stabilizing at this point. We may or may not be a ways away. I don't know the answer to that. In terms of old crop inventory, I would say that you need to be willing to give it a little time to see if this can't recover. Recover and the situation get better before it gets worse.

And the one thing that I would say to that that would— should add a certain level of calm to our listeners is I went back and looked at the price of domestic soybeans in China over the last couple of weeks. And going back to February 25th to today, and what caused me to look at this was I noticed that their prices had been improving in the last few days. And it's not something that I track on a regular basis, but it got me intrigued enough to go back and look. Well, their domestic soybean price from February 25th to now had gone up, um, 19%. That's approximately $1.50 a bushel. I can't say whether or not that is exactly how it equated, but in terms of how their prices are quoted, it had changed 19%.

Chris: That's pretty significant.

Duane

Lowery: That's very significant. Now stop and think about what's happening here globally. China and South Korea, for example, two large feed manufacturers and users, um, have— are farther advanced on this coronavirus timeline than we are. They are farther advanced down the economic turmoil timeline than we are. And I have pretty close to firsthand information out of China that things are well on their way to a return to normal. Not that they've arrived at normal, but they're on that pathway. And factories are moving, businesses are opening, people are, are coming out of their quarantine type of environment. And you have a situation where China desperately wants to improve their economy, so they're going to be doing stimulus measures.

But in the case of this example with the price of soybeans, imagine if you were a feed manufacturer or user and you're fighting this and you got quarantine, you might have transportation difficulties, odds are you've depleted your inventory. Okay, you've not, during all that chaos, you decided, well, I'm going to put in 3 months worth of supply. It's exactly the opposite. You've diminished it. Used it. Exactly. So now as they come out of that, they're going to go, oh gee, I guess we better get some more inventory bought. And they recognize the price declines and things of this nature. And maybe that's what we're seeing in their domestic soybean price. At some point in time, that becomes advantageous to us. I also want to say again, I fully believe that they'll do their Phase 1. Is it possible this changes the timeline slightly? If so, it's measured in months, not in years.

And to the extent that China desperately needs better financial or economic times, a big part of that, they want these tariffs from the U.S. eliminated. They want them eliminated. Phase 1 is part of that. It's not that they haven't been buying, they haven't been buying U.S., okay? And it's possible that they have aggressively purchased the South American, other origin supplies, and that leaves us to be the next one. So, it's not unreasonable when I see that their domestic soybean price has improved what would be considerable in the last couple of weeks, and it's not difficult to piece together the logic about why that might be happening. To then extrapolate that into meaning, hey, maybe these purchases might still be ahead and they might be very quickly ahead.

And we're also going into the time frame where the middle of the country, the river navigation system becomes more operational and the industry relies on that transportation to feed an export program. So all these factors are coinciding that our best chance for increased exports we could still be in front of it, giving the producer an opportunity long before he's faced with that July, August, oh gosh, I got to empty out the bins and make room for new crop. I think there's still a window of time here that it's not unreasonable to have some level of optimism that things could get better. And if you get a few of these other things, especially if China would be part of it, it would be a big plus. And so I would, offer the— I would still want to offer encouragement that we have a window in front of us, still in time to help us before we got to make that decision.

Chris: So it's good to hear a little optimism because right now all you're going to hear if you turn on any news station is pessimism, right?

Duane

Lowery: Well, that would be the next point I would make is turn off the news to the extent possible. Yeah, we don't need 24/7. You know, if you need 15 minutes at noon and 15 minutes at night, that would be great, but Otherwise, I'm not sure that's beneficial to any of us if we hear the same thing hashed over, because at the end of the day, we're not to be driven by, by fear. And, uh, so it's, it's one thing to have fear impact you into a level of respect. It's a completely another different thing to have fear engulf you, right? That's not, that's not beneficial.

Chris: Yeah. Well, the purpose for having this conversation, Duane, really was to start out by just talking about the idea again to kind of wrap up is having a conversation around the whole idea of as producers and ag suppliers and all that kind of thing in the ag industry, we are an essential industry. So we are going to have to be able to operate, we're going to have to be able to produce food, we have to be able to transport inputs around, we have to be able to do all those kind of things. We just want everybody to be safe. We want everybody to focus on what they can control because there's a lot of things out here right now that it feels like we don't have any control of. But we can step back and say, okay, what things can we control? You know, we can control our planning, we can control contingency planning, we can get ready to put our crop in.

And that's really one of the main messages we want to get out and take care of the livestock and take care of of your families, take care of the employees, and we will get through this. There's a reason to be optimistic. We don't have to just look at this and be all depressed because, you know, there's going to be some major challenges ahead yet, there's no question, but I think at the same time we just got to keep our heads up, do the right thing, control what we can control. Any final comments from you, Duane?

Duane

Lowery: This is the one last I would say that we all have a sphere of influence. You know, it starts with, you know, our family, then employees, people we work with, fellow workers. If everybody just looks at their own sphere of influence and says, you know what, we're going to get through this together, and I'm going to watch out for you, you're going to watch out for me, I'm going to come up with a plan, you're going to come up with a plan, and we're going to kind of map out all these different possibilities So we're ready for anything. And then after that, just have a positive attitude that we will get through it and we will find the opportunities if there are some opportunities, and we'll manage it, and we're going to do it without being dominated by fear.

Chris: Exactly. So I think that's, that's all we got for now, but we just wanted to reach out to everybody and feel free to, to contact us. And thanks for watching and thanks for listening. Have a good spring. Thanks for joining us on today's episode of the EggView Pitch. As always, you can reach out to us at cbarron@agviewsolutions.com or duanel@netins.net. We'll catch you next time on the EggView Pitch.