Sunday market outlook: supply and demand tug of war

Chris: And it all comes down to this. 2 on, 2 out, bottom of the 9th. The Farmers lead by 1. Full count, here comes the play at the plate, and it's the Ag View Pitch! Welcome everybody to another episode of the Ag View Pitch, and we are going into a new week and a new month heading into the month of August, and we're going to have a little conversation here about what might be coming our way in the markets. And guess who is back? Dwayne, you're back. How's it going today?

Duane: Hi, good, Chris. Feels good to be back.

Chris: Yeah, we missed you for a couple of weeks and then you were gone and now, uh, Shay, our other counterpart with the Ag View Pitch and, uh, Ag View Solutions is out for 2 weeks. He's actually on an airplane right now flying to California to walk the Pacific Trail and then he took my other counterpart that kind of helps behind the scenes and has been trying to help us improve the podcast here and So consequently, I'm sitting here looking at a, at a mixer, which is supposed to make our audio sound better and all that type of cool stuff. So both of those guys are gone. So we're going to be sending this recording over to Grant Barron, my son, and he's going to get us posted. So all you guys are taking your 2 weeks, I guess, and maybe eventually everybody will be back to work again.

Duane: Well, I would imagine that will be the plan.

Chris: Yeah, yeah, hopefully. So anyway, um, we will continue to, to kind of work on the audio and make that better, especially once we get these other guys back here and they can do the technology part of things. But in the meantime, Dwayne, uh, a lot of crazy stuff going on in the markets, but let's start off with crop conditions. What are you hearing and what are you seeing both from from the drought monitor and what you're hearing on crop conditions, and then I can spew out what I'm seeing a little bit too.

Duane: Well, I would say that on crop conditions, looking at it from a drought monitor perspective or looking at data, not actually looking at the field, but just looking at it from data, I would say Iowa has taken center stage here, and I'd say that Ohio has been dry at different times, as well as parts of Indiana. And then looking at the forecast moving forward, you probably got parts of northern Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, maybe parts of South Dakota, Wisconsin, and maybe Ohio again that could all be on the front page in terms of crop conditions that are either under stress or could possibly be deteriorating to some degree depending on soil type. So that's what it looks like there. What have you seen in your actual travels and talking to people and actually being there to see what the crop looks like on the ground?

Chris: Yeah, we've been pretty heavily in Illinois, so, in the last couple weeks anyway, and so it seems like those areas that we've traveled in have caught rains all along here and look pretty phenomenal. But as you said, you know, there's obviously pockets.— of dry. We happen to be in one of those here in our operation. We haven't had really any measurable rain for about 3 weeks now, and when we— the last time we did have a good measurable rain, we got wind with the first phase of it, and then we got hail with the second phase of it. I think we're probably in an area that's going to not be super good as far as how the yield's going to going to shake out, but I guess time will tell. The one thing that this year reminds me of is 2017. I remember it being super dry in some of these dry areas to the point where it was like, you know, we got to be taking a lot of the top end off of this.

But the one thing that's similar this year to 2017 is, is it really cooled off and we had some cool nights and we had dew and we had, you know, and we did catch maybe a tenth of an inch a couple of different, several different times. We haven't quite caught that tenth of an inch yet, but— and then conversely, I was on the phone yesterday with a grower in North Dakota, and it sounds like they're super wet and they have drowned out areas. I mean, you can go from way too dry to way too wet, and there's always going to be those pockets. But I think still long-term, my opinion is we're setting up for a huge crop, and I think it's mainly just because the heart of the Corn Belt does look so good.

Duane: Well, it sounds like if every place that you've traveled has had all these nice rains, clearly you haven't spent enough time at home or traveling around. Yeah, right, right.

Chris: But I need to be home more, there's no doubt.

Duane: You can ask my wife that. But yeah, I probably a little reluctant to embrace that statement that about the really good record yields. I don't know if we're gonna have a record yield or not. I know that the marketplace has dialed in a record year all year long, and I would say that to whatever extent a record yield was expected or the amount of— that we were going to exceed the record had been ratcheted higher over the last few weeks, I think that the— that figure, wherever we've peaked out on yield expectations, it's got to be that getting dialed back here. Now, whether that will dial back below a record yield, I have no strong opinion and no scientific way to feel confident about any assessment.

But in Iowa, which is right now, I'd say, taking center stage, in the northeast corner of the state, at one time we were the wettest spot on the, uh, uh, national map in terms of soil moisture, and now we're on the drier side. And you got areas in the western part of the state that have been dry for an extended period of time. And here, where we have gone from being plentiful moisture to being short of moisture, it's amazing to me how dramatic how some of the crop conditions have turned on the lightest soil types and how you can see it beginning to develop stress on the next layer of soil types that are on the drier side, lighter side. And you look at the forecast, there's just not a lot of precip out here over the next couple of weeks., and I wonder how the crop will look like a couple weeks from now, 10 days from now, if that is what— how it is set up.

And I wonder how quick you're going to have parts of northern Illinois in the same boat, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and I wonder what happens to Ohio that's been fairly dry quite a bit of the time, but has also gotten some timely showers, including having gotten some here just this last weekend. So I don't know exactly how that comes out in the mix, but I think that from a market perspective, the marketplace has absorbed a tremendous amount of negativity associated with crop and national yield expectations, and I think that we've absorbed more than what is actually going to materialize.

So I think from a market perspective, we should walk in here tonight look at the forecast and say, wait a minute, we've absorbed a much better crop than what might be out there, and all of a sudden the table turns a little bit as to whether or not, you know, how confident they are about their record yield statement. So I, I think that from a market perspective, maybe we've absorbed the largest crop that we're going to get, and maybe now we start to dial in something a little bit different. And there are other factors that are going to affect the marketplace other than just supply. Demand is going to be a big part as well, but But on the supply side, it feels to me like the marketplace has talked up the crop larger than what it can actually materialize to be.

Chris: Yeah, that'll be interesting to see. And as you said, you know, we'll see what the crop condition ratings do. And if they, you know, but like, I don't know, we're definitely, definitely at a point where the Chinese demand and some of that stuff has seemed to be negated because we, we, it feels like there's a tug of war between the supply and demand side of things. So let's hit on that for a minute, you know, talk just briefly here, not a lot on it, but just a little bit on the Chinese demand. I mean, we've had some record sales on corn and it seems like the market's done nothing in a response to that. And you think that's just because of the prospects of what the market thinks is a huge crop coming on?

Duane: I think to some extent it's about prospects of what the market has been thinking the crop was going to be. I think to another extent it's a lot of disbelief in the marketplace about, one, whether China will actually follow through, and two, every time one of these sales has been announced, there's been a certain part of this marketplace that thought, okay, well, that's it, that'll be the end of that, only to find out there'd be another big sale and yet another big sale. And so I think there's a lot of disbelief. And I think the another part of it is whether it's the farmer or the marketplace in general has been so beat up and beat down by different factors that when something comes along that actually might be bullish, you know, they just can't get any enthusiasm.

So the trade sentiment in general has been basically continuously bearish the entire time, and they have not deviated from that just because a sales announcement's been made. That being said, while the marketplace may not have responded to these sales on the day the sale is made, or even in, in general, because we're sitting down here, you know, a nickel off of contract lows, That being said, the first time we traded the price we're at right now, which is only nickel off contract lows— first day we traded that level was on April 21st. And in the month of May, we traded that level. In the month of June, we traded that level. And in the month of July, we've traded that level. So I want to look at the picture that I'm trying to draw here, and I see it more as a spring that the marketplace is pressing on the spring and pressing on the spring, and they're not going anywhere.

So while the market isn't rallying, it also isn't going any lower. And considering how large the crop size has gotten in people's minds and how good people perceive the crop conditions to be and all these negative components, the fact that we're not going down any worse, I feel like the marketplace, through the Black Swan events earlier this year, maybe the right way to look at it is maybe we've already absorbed like a harvest break. Maybe we've already absorbed this type of negativity, and at least that's what the marketplace is telling us since August 21st.

Chris: Well, Dwayne, now the question I want to ask you is, you know, are we seeing a harvest low way, way premature, possibly?

Duane: Well, in the last 10 years, it's not been that uncommon to get harvest lows sometime in August or first of September. Or late July and be associated with the tin can harvest, the moving of old crop supplies at a time where we had, you know, a large carryout expectation and things of this nature. So it is not uncommon to bottom out early, and in some cases it seems like it's more uncommon to actually be making lows in October. So I think there's a good chance that we've already dealt— seen maybe the harvest lows or very close to it, because we've already absorbed an awful lot of negativity. And another factor that we absorbed early on in this last 4-month period was the ethanol industry being destroyed and getting down to running at 50% of capacity.

And, you know, now we've recovered significantly, and I find it interesting that the ethanol industry has recovered quite significantly, and at a time that gasoline demand hasn't fully recovered. And I'm sitting here wondering, um, how long is it going to be before we get an announcement that China's been buying ethanol, or in the process of buying ethanol and/or DDGs? I think that might be something that is yet to come. That might coincide maybe more with harvest time, I'm not sure, but you know, there's another thing that could be coming on the positive side. So it feels to me like in many respects we've absorbed, uh, kind of the worst-case scenarios towards demand, the worst-case scenarios towards, uh, supply. And let's not forget, at the end of June we lost 5 million acres than what people had been factoring into their balance sheet. That's 900 million bushels.

So we're That's another thing that the supply side might not be quite as bad as it was expected to be. And then the argument comes, you know, what are we doing to crop size? And I think we have been, in the eyes of the marketplace, we have been increasing national yield. But I think from today forward, we might start to see national yield ideas shaved off, and whether that they shave off back to still preseason expectations of 178.5, or whether they shave off to less, something less than that, I don't necessarily have an opinion, but I think we are going to see over the next 2 weeks, we're probably going to see the national ideas, yield ideas shaved back to some degree. The question is, what point are we starting from when we shave them off?

Chris: Mm-hmm. While we're still on on corn here, um, hit basis for a minute and, and talk to me a little bit about— this is kind of a two-part question because you're, you're excellent at answering questions before I get something. I'll throw both of these out here at you, is the, is basis and then the farmer selling that either is going to have to happen sometime between now and and off the combine, what's the person watch for there? Because, you know, some of these areas where the yields are going to be phenomenal, probably going to be more of an issue on basis than it might be, say, in western Iowa where they are sitting in an area where it's pretty dry, maybe the yields won't quite be there. What's your take?

Duane: Well, if you're in western Iowa, it's pretty difficult to advocate selling basis here because of your supply situation. So setting that aside, first thing I think that's important to remember about basis is to realize that for the last year and a half at least, basis has outperformed expectations with the exception of when the Black Swan event occurred. And that weakness in basis turned out to be relatively short-lived and more short-lived than expected or feared when we were living it in real, real time.

Also, because we had the black swan event, because we lost the ethanol industry, and because at the same time people were talking about, you know, record, supplies either in yield or in carryout, and you had carryout projections anywhere from 3.2 to 4 billion bushels for this new crop supply, during that window in real time everybody was— the industry was widening their new crop basis levels out, and some locations have seen new crop basis values firm a little bit from those wider peaks, but even those areas that have not firmed, current levels are not the widest we could possibly expect for new crop basis, but they're on the wider side of recent history, and given the last year and a half tendency to have stronger than expected basis values, I think there's a legitimate argument to be made that maybe new crop basis is already calculated in at maybe wider than what it might end up being.

So I'm a little suspicious that basis values might improve from what is currently offered, and I would say the, the greatest thing that would threaten that statement would be if the futures market staged a rally. Because you are correct that the farmer doesn't have as much sold as he normally would have, and he probably doesn't have as much sold as what he needs to have sold based on his own storage capacity and/or his own cash flow needs. So there— we do have a situation here where the farmer is hoping and anxious to make some sales at harvest time, and then maybe you have another group of farmers that are must make those sales due to space reasons or cash flow reasons, and so maybe we do have a group of movement to hit the, hit the trade yet, and so that might be a threat.

So if the futures market were to rally, all that farmer selling becomes easier to be obtained, and so that could be a threat to basis. But at the same time, when you're talking about the basis structure, Um, in the last few years, it's— we've basically had a processor and an ethanol bid. We haven't really had an exporter market. Right now, we have an export-driven cash corn basis market, and if we look at the new crop sales we have with China, we have to assume the export market is probably going to continue to be a relatively strong bid. And that's going to help to shore up the basis values that we haven't had the last few years, at least not to this type of intensity.

So I would argue that we might have a case that basis values might surprise us with their ability to be relatively firm going into the harvest period and the post-harvest period, you know, the typical November-December, uh, strengthened basis. I think that would have— I think we could have firmness there, much firmer than what we thought we'd have a few weeks, a few months ago, and probably firmer than what a lot of people think it is going to be now. But I would say the exception to that, or the risk to that statement, would be that the more futures go up, the more farmer selling that's going to be occurring. So I'm not sure exactly how that balances out because I happen to I think the futures market is going to increase to some degree here, and I don't know if it's going to be enough that's going to cause basis to weaken.

So, well, I'll summarize it this way: basis by itself probably is going to be firmer than we think, and, and the— it's possible that could be trumped with a futures rally. Mm-hmm.

Chris: It wouldn't— that rally be somewhat limited though? It's feels like there's still quite a bit of '19 corn out there yet that guys are trying to figure out how to clean up, and they're— and so some are waiting, you know, and just going selling it as they're trucking it out, hoping that there's some kind of rally or something at some point, but it just keeps moving. Um, isn't that, you know, if we did get kind of a rally, wouldn't that pressure along with the pressure of some additional sales on new crop that guys know have to go off the combine kind of limit very much upside on the corn?

Duane: Well, I— it doesn't feel to me like there's that much '19 left. We know there's some. Okay, we know there's some, but I don't sense that there's large amounts and I don't sense there are producers that they themselves have a large percentage of their crop. Where in previous years we have had some of that. So I think the amount of leftover from '19 is manageable and, and not a big influence from the marketplace. I think that a lot of people took the attitude from March and April to say, geez, I don't want to be the last guy holding, holding supplies in July because the ethanol industry won't be here. And so I think a lot of that stuff has gone through the pipes pipeline already. And I think that the basis values for old crop corn has been quite firm the last several weeks, and so I, I don't see signs that we have a burdensome amount of '19 left.

So I might be wrong, but that's how I'm looking at it. I don't find people with large amounts. There might be some with some, but I don't think large. So I don't see that as a threat in front of us. As far as the new crop, you know, on the one hand, look at the sales we've had with China. Look at how those sales to China have spurred other buyers to step up and make their purchases. And yet, you know, we know the farmer has a smaller amount of new crop sold than normal. I just wonder if that doesn't create a situation where the export market and the cash market might find themselves maybe more short than they want to be, and maybe the pressure is going to be on them. So I, I think the basis outlook is, is maybe better than what we think.

Chris: Yeah, one, one interesting stat, and I told you this offline before we started recording, but you know, we've been out seeing a fair amount of producers, and one thing I did yesterday is I just kind of looked at over the last 3 years where growers were at on average sold for both corn and soybeans, and corn first here, you know, average over the last 3 years as of August 1st, the clients that we work with were in that 35-37% sold normally, and right now at about 12%, which tells me there's pent-up sales yet that probably need to hit, you know, to be priced yet between now and when the bins are full or when the combines roll or whenever they pull the trigger on those. And then on the soybean side, it's even more so. We usually see as of August 1st just shy of 40%, right at about 40%, and we're at 5%.

And again, this is just my cross-section of the world, so it's not that many operations or whatever, but I bet it's pretty relative to where a lot of producers are at. Do you think, as we switch over to beans here for a minute, that if, if we see some rally based on weather conditions yet, hopefully in, in August, that, that, you know, that that gives us some strength? But yet on the same token, do you think that that gets limited with sales on that side of things, or any other issues potentially?

Duane: Well, it's certainly true that the farmer is looking for a place to make sales, and in the case of beans, you know, it's— while the corn was within 5 cents of contract lows as we speak, you know, beans on the other hand, you know, they're at the upper side of prices we've seen from April forward. In fact, I would say we're on the upper side of price levels seen from March 1st forward. And so it doesn't take too much additional strength in beans and all of a sudden we're getting back to levels that farmers probably don't feel too bad in making sales. Whether or not they want to make those sales or not is another story, but I— they're not going to be too bad of a place to make sales. And it is possible that some farmers might opt to make more soybean sales because they haven't had a chance to make corn sales. So I'm not sure how that is going to pan out.

I do want to go backwards a little bit in this conversation and just play devil's advocate with your comment about the farmer not having much sold, and so isn't that going to put a pressure on him to make more sales in advance? That's true, but let's just turn the tables 180 degrees and talk about the guy on the other side of the table, the commercial. He's got corn going out the door to China He's got other export sales. The ethanol industry has returned, and yet they haven't bought much grain from the farmer. So where's the pressure on them to step up and try to get their demand? You know, they've, they've been sitting here anticipating they were going to be able to steal this for some dirt-cheap price, and we're close enough to dirt-cheap price as it is, but when does the pressure turn on them?

And I would argue that You know, they have to feel a little bit of pressure about how they're going to get their supplies and what they're going to have to pay up to get their supply. And on the other hand, I'm sure there's going to be a point you're going to want to talk about government payments to producers and, and some of that money hitting before election time. And so as a producer is getting cash flow from the government, how much does that minimize his need to make sales for on cash flow reasons. He might still have space reasons, but, uh, um, if push comes to shove, he could put it in the bag. He might be creative in what he does for storage, and whether or not he makes those physical sales or whether he finds some way to store as many bushels as possible, isn't that going to depend a lot on what basis is doing and what spreads is doing?

And isn't the job of basis and spreads to entice that farmer selling? And if government monies are going to help some of the cash flow burden, you know, I have seen these type of situations turn to where the— as a farmer is getting government money, he's less inclined to make the sales, and especially at price levels he may not like. So just wanted to touch on that.

Chris: I think it's going to depend on the area. I mean, If you're in an area where the yields are really big, I think there's going to be issues with just logistics alone. Where do you put it? How do you manage it? And to me, from my perspective as someone who works with producers on essentially just really good quality planning, I think every operation's got to step back and look at this and say, okay, what is my plan, you know, and what's the external environment around me like? Within a 100-mile radius, let's say, of where I deliver my grain. And, you know, if you're in an area where there's an abundant supply, I think the plan needs to be figured out ASAP because it is a logistic thing. And then, you know, and hopefully everybody's already working on their cash flow and already have that kind of planned out.

I know that's difficult when, you know, when you have a growing crop, you don't exactly know what you got, but we're getting a lot closer to knowing. And then having said all that, I still think the soybean side of things is a bit of an issue, you know, with such a small amount sold. I know the price ranges got a lot of guys real close to the black, and so there's a ton of people on the fence marketing soybeans. And I would say that, you know, you may see more soybeans sold and less storage space used for soybeans on the farm side of things, but You know, that's an individual thing too. It kind of depends on the farmer. But I don't know, I think all in all, the key is to have an individual plan for your operation, and time's running out to have your plan ready to roll and be flexible with it too.

Duane: Well, there's a certain amount of truth to that.

Chris: In the case of— I think there's a lot of truth to it.

Duane: Well, I mean, I understand the having the plan, but in the same token, you know, a guy can be— a guy can price that corn, you know, just before this truck arrives at the delivery location. So, you know, all we're talking about here is when are you going to put a price on it, when are you going to put a basis on it, right? And, and you can have the idea that, okay, I'm going to, I'm going to market these bushels. I have this, this this many bushels I am going to market, but that doesn't mean he has to make that sale in order to have that commitment done. He can have the plan and know he's going to do it, then the question of, you know, what day do you make the basis sale or price sale, that could wait theoretically till the end. So there's still a plan in place to market it, but that doesn't mean he has to make the sale today.

And I'm just, I'm just painting a picture where With basis values that they are, while they might very well have a time during harvest that they could be worse basis than what's offered today, you know, there might also be a situation that, you know how it is, sometimes there's still a spot premium bid for nearby shipment that if you happen to catch the early part of harvest, maybe you'll make sales on something like that. And so I don't see the need for the producer to make a new crop corn basis sales at current values. I think that the basis structure has, has been factored in worst-case scenarios from this spring, and that scenario has changed somewhat, and I've never seen the new crop basis really factor in that change.

And I have a feeling that because the farmer hasn't yet made a lot of new crop sales, because the exporter has made the sales, because the ethanol plant now has to face the fact that he has competition from the export arena, and the processor has to face the fact that he has competition from the export arena, and he now sees the ethanol industry coming back online, all of a sudden, I think the pressure's on them. I think the pressure's on the buyer to maybe have to push up his bid, and I think that pressure— they won't, they won't give in until just before harvest. And so I think this— we can play a game of chicken here for a period of time that I think the farmer has some advantage until we get into the gut slot of harvest. Mm-hmm.

Chris: Sounds good. Well, Dwayne, I don't know What else are you thinking as we go into the next couple of weeks? I mean, we're sitting here with these corn at $3.27, no beans at $8.92 as we speak here right at this minute. What should farmers be watching as we go into the next couple of weeks?

Duane: Well, I don't like to watch weather very much, but I think that's what we need to watch. And we can argue about how much weather is going to impact final crop size from here forward, and I get that. But I go back to my comment I made earlier that the marketplace has been pressing on a spring anticipating abundant supplies and record yields, and I think the weather forecast that we have today going out the next couple weeks looks like a threat to that to some degree. I think crop ratings are probably going to decrease decline the next 2 weeks given the forecast. I think yield ideas are starting to be shaved, and I think that because we've been pressing on this spring, I wonder if we don't— we aren't in a position where we see some price recovery going into the August 12th USDA crop reports.

And in the case of beans, this is going to sound like I'm really talking out of both sides of my mouth. I don't mean to, but it is— the result. November soybeans are sitting here at $8.98 on Friday's settlement, and like I said earlier, that's at the upper end of values we've been since the 1st of March. If soybean oil actually made new highs for the move here, I think on Friday, but if you, if you look at this from a chart perspective, you have a couple scenarios. One scenario is you're going to expect the market to collapse from here and falter, and under that scenario you'd be talking about, you know, 40 or 50 cents of downside risk in beans. The other scenario is you're going to look for new highs, which will catch everybody off guard, and then all of a sudden, where can you run to?

And you might be able to run beans 75 cents or a dollar, but looking at it from a chart perspective, in the longer-term charts where the resistance comes into play. So if there's a weather— and I capitalize the word 'if'— If we have a weather storyline over the next couple of weeks, um, due to a lack of precip in, in not all areas, but in a large enough area to possibly have an influence, um, I think we might have a very nice pre-harvest peak from which we then can sell off into harvest. And so I think the producer needs to be on guard for a price rally here in the near term that maybe catches people by surprise and starts to offer some opportunities to make some sales. And in the case of beans, I would be on the lookout for that. I would point people to be prepared for that and start to ponder, you know, if beans get to blank, does that mean I make sales?

And if it means I make sales, does that mean I suddenly have more storage space for corn? And start to go through some of those calculations. But I think there's a possibility we might get something like that. And the other factor is, um, we might still have a sizable buying program by China of U.S. soybeans here, and we might see that start to manifest itself here over the next several weeks as well. So maybe we got something a little positive coming on the demand side. Um, another thing I'd throw out for something to ponder, the dollar index has dropped about 11%. Since, uh, April. And, uh, um, we've talked about this before, the inflationary aspects of pumping trillions upon trillions of dollars from, from the Federal Reserve, from the U.S. Treasury, and from Congress. And this is being mimicked across the globe by every central bank out there.

And at some point in time, that's inflationary. And at some point in time, that may end up being very weak to the US dollar, and so far it's declined 11%. These are macroeconomic things that are lurking in the background to have an influence on commodity prices, and I don't think they should be underestimated. And that is another reason why I think the producer has every reason in the world to be very, very reluctant to make sales in corn 5 cents on contract— off-contract lows prices that over the last 12 years has tended to be the bottom side for the late summer price low or the harvest time low, either one. The amount of weeks that we spent at or below current values on spot corn is probably measured in single-digit weeks over the last 12 years. So we are very, very cheap historically.

We have what I consider to be a new— not new because we've talked about it here for several months, but a new input in the value of this dollar with having declined and a new input in the potential for inflation and how that might affect commodity prices. So I think there's a lot more here that the farmer has to be thinking about than just supply and demand in the near term and in the near-term assessment of that.

Chris: I like your comment on the soybean side of things that, you know, and I agree wholeheartedly both from a cash flow standpoint as somebody that's looking at the financials with growers and also, you know, bringing in some revenue through the soybean avenue because as we look at it with where we're at right now, like I said earlier in the podcast, we have a lot of producers that are on the edge of the black or in the black fairly squarely. And then if you, if you tack on any of the government assistance in terms of a price per bushel, that easily gets a lot of these guys, the majority of the producers in the black. And if we see any kind of strength, it would be hard to argue against pretty aggressive sales on the soybean side of things for all the reasons you mentioned. So I agree wholeheartedly on that.

Duane: Yeah, I would, I would, I would be very much in favor of making soybean sales on a near-term rally, especially if it's driven by weather, and maybe we can throw in some Chinese business in there too as well. The question is, you know, just how much of a rally can we get, and we'll have to kind of see, but I would very much like to see a pre-harvest peak of pre-harvest rally, and I would consider that a very strong opportunity to make soybean sales. And I know I've talked to some growers individually and said, look, if this particular scenario plays out, seriously consider altering your plan to store all your beans and instead maybe make your bean sales, take that space, convert it over to corn, and then look at paper reownership on the beans that you make the sales on, on this hopefully what we have for a rally here in front of us.

Chris: Yeah, and in some cases you stick a fork in it too on the soybean side of things. If there's, if there's enough there, it's like done, you know, is an okay place to be too.

Duane: That's always a choice also. Right.

Chris: Hey Dwayne, I think we've covered the gamut so far. Appreciate your input, and it's good to have you back after a 2-week hiatus. And now we'll let Shay get his stuff done. And anything else that you have as we wrap up, or are you good?

Duane: I'm good. I'm all right.

Chris: Awesome. Well, hey, thanks for the conversation. It was awesome. And if news breaks, we will be out with the information in midweek if we need to, if anything happens. And again, thanks, Dewayne.

Duane: Appreciate it.

Chris: Thank you, Chris. Yep, and thanks everybody for listening to the Ag U-Pit, and we will catch you next time.