Cost of Production Episodes
Every Ag View Pitch conversation on cost of production — summaries, key takeaways, and full transcripts.
Episode 539
Risky business: store and ignore - weekly market outlook: Oct. 23-27th
Jim McCormick shows why a wide carry can be a trap, how to price storage interest, and why locking inputs without matching sales leaves a bill open.
Episode 538
Spooky season! Weekly market outlook: Oct 16-20th
Matt Bennett explains why insurance stops protecting you in mid-October, when storage pays, and how to sell forward after multi-year highs in grain.
Episode 537
Better than expected season - weekly market outlook: Oct. 9-13th
Jarod Creed prices the cost of carry at seven cents a month and explains why the insurance discovery price is only half of a harvest decision.
Episode 535
Quarterly stocks rock markets: weekly market outlook, Oct. 2-6
Clark Neighbors shows how to run the storage algebra: board carry against interest, storage and basis, so bin space earns a return instead of parking grain.
Episode 531
Fall storage: corn vs. soybeans
Ryan Moe uses stocks-to-use ratios and interest cost to decide which crop earns bin space, and explains why elevators end each year the same way.
Episode 524
Pre-harvest price prospects: weekly market outlook Aug. 21-25th
Duane Lowry explains why a pre-harvest rally is a peak to sell from, and how high interest rates change whether storing bushels can pay at all.
Episode 520
The dog days of August: weekly market outlook Aug. 7-11th
Joe Vaclavik explains why the dollar price per bushel is nearly irrelevant, how to treat crop insurance as a put, and why headlines defy prediction.
Episode 516
Weekly market outlook July 17-21st: weather and volatility
Peter Meyer explains why supply rallies get sold and demand rallies get respected, and how to hold price targets when algorithms drive the tape.
Episode 513
Weekly market outlook - July 3-7th: USDA sticker shock
Grant Shimek separates the basis decision from the futures decision, and explains why a report shock trades for three days before weather takes over.
Episode 512
Weekly market outlook June 26-30th: weather and civil war in Russia
Joe Vaclavik argues yield uncertainty outranks demand in a drought market, and explains why locking a strong return is business, not a bad call.
Episode 508
Weather vs sluggish demand
Jarod Creed splits farmers into two camps by insurance coverage and shows why the right marketing move depends on which side of that line you sit on.
Episode 506
Sharpen your pencils: Sunday market outlook June 5-9
Garret Brown on why knowing your breakeven lets you execute, and why a two-year margin outlook should drive fertilizer and grain sale decisions.
Episode 504
Weekly market outlook May 30 - June 2nd: bullish weather markets?
Brian Splitt maps 2023 against 2013 to show how analog years guide sale targets, then explains scaling bushels up as price climbs and using puts.
Episode 502
Weekly market outlook May 15-19th: USDA report and market fundamentals
Mark Welch reads a WASDE the way a marketer should: question the trendline yield, doubt the demand rebound, and keep your own breakeven current.
Episode 499
Weekly market outlook, May 1-5th: markets under pressure
Matt Bennett on why aggressive sales still need flexibility, how crop insurance sets your floor, and why final yield changes your true breakeven.
Episode 498
To plant, or not to plant
Troy Deutmeyer on cold soils: why the first 24 to 48 hours matter, when to switch to soybeans, and how late corn can go without yield loss north of I-80.
Episode 497
Slow planting pace
Duane Lowry reads spreads and relative value to argue a sell-off was a flush, not a trend, and explains where to park new crop offers ahead of planting.
Episode 495
Weekly market outlook: April 17-21, planting progress and market movers
Peter Meyer explains how China buys value, why funds wait for momentum, and what to ask when energy companies come recruiting your acres for feedstock.
Episode 493
Weekly market outlook, April 10-14th: macro price pressure
Ryan Moe of StoneX explains why standing open orders beat watching the screen, and why funds skip corn when a risk free CD pays five percent.
Episode 490
Weekly market outlook April 3-7: April fools or April facts? The latest USDA numbers
Joe Vaclavik explains why the acreage number deserves doubt, how spring seasonals usually behave and what high interest rates cost you to store grain.
Episode 487
Farm to freight: blurry logistics made clear with Michael Steeke, Rocket Shipping
Michael Steeke bought his family farm outright, then built Rocket Shipping to 29 people. He explains LTL, partner carriers, and freight bill audits.
Episode 486
Funds go risk off: weekly market outlook March 20-24th
Clark Neighbors reads a corn break through fund liquidation, defines patience as 60 to 90 days, and prices storage as interest per acre per month.
Episode 485
March madness: weekly market outlook March 13-17th
Jarod Creed argues margin objectives beat price targets, explains why a blended average matters more than your last sale, and plans before planting.
Episode 484
Is the H-2A program dead for farmers?
Paul Neiffer explains proposed H-2A rules that push a tractor driver who also drives a truck from $13.32 to $22.55 an hour, plus $15,000 filing fees.
Episode 481
Don't raise 230 bu corn to break even
Matt Bennett on the corn market dropping 27 cents in a week, $5.94 and $13.75 insurance prices, and why 240 bushel corn can still lose money in 2023.
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