Cost of Production Episodes
Every Ag View Pitch conversation on cost of production — summaries, key takeaways, and full transcripts.
Aug 2022
Weekly market outlook, Aug. 22-26: it's time to plan your pre-harvest marketing strategy
Jarod Creed explains pre-harvest what-if revenue math, how a lower price changes an insurance claim, and pairing fertilizer buys with grain sales.
Aug 2022
A big corn and soybean crop?
Ryan Moe explains how to read basis by thinking like the grain buyer, and why a bullish view belongs in the futures market rather than in your basis.
Jul 2022
It's not too late: market outlook August 1-5
Jarod Creed explains the one-to-one habit of pairing each input buy with an equal dollar of grain sold, and why a mid-year review beats a year-end one.
Jul 2022
Weekly market outlook: July 25-29 - summer weather continues to heat up market volatility
Duane Lowry on resetting price targets after a break, why the Fed moved corn more than weather did, and where he would place his catch-up sales.
Jul 2022
Weekly market outlook Jul. 18-22nd: weather and market volatility
Jarod Creed explains how to pull your schedule of insurance in July and price risk against guaranteed bushels when production confidence is low.
Jul 2022
July 5th market outlook and YouTube Live announcement
Joe Vaclavik explains why recession fear is a poor marketing tool and how budgets and leverage, not price predictions, should decide forward sales.
Jun 2022
Summer volatility heats up: weekly market outlook, June 27 - July 1st
Peter Meyer explains how to tell whether the inflation trade is over, why he listens to markets instead of talking at them, and what the funds watch.
Jun 2022
Weekly market outlook: Jun. 21-24th, navigating risk and uncertainty
Duane Lowry weighs record input costs against historic prices, and argues volatility now cuts harder to the downside than the upside for farmers.
Jun 2022
Weekly market outlook: June 13-17th - keep attention on 2023
Jarod Creed shows why 2023 breakevens near $5.50 corn demand that you market inputs and grain together, and why moving grain fast cuts borrowing costs.
May 2022
Weekly market outlook: May 31st - June 3rd, summer weather market headed your way
Grant Shimek on why a dryness narrative needs 30 to 40 days to build, capping cash sales near 60 percent, and having a plan for being wrong.
May 2022
Weekly market outlook, May 23rd to 27th: how will economic turmoil drive the markets?
Mark Welch of Texas A&M explains how per capita consumption, global GDP and copper prices reveal when high commodity prices start rationing demand.
May 2022
Weekly market outlook: May 16th-20th - slow planting progress
Ryan Moe explains why fund money leaves grain when the story stops, and how treating an anomaly year as the new normal costs farmers real margin.
Apr 2022
Weekly market outlook: April 25-29th - soybean acres shifting back to corn?
Peter Meyer breaks down why supply rallies get sold, how thin survey response weakens acreage reports, and what Ukraine's seed shortage means.
Apr 2022
Is it time to switch some soybean acres back to corn?
Jarod Creed explains scale-up selling, margin protection as a real marketing tool, and doing the math before you switch soybean acres back to corn.
Apr 2022
400 episodes! Spring outlook and commentary
Chris Barron and Shay Foulk on spring fieldwork prep: five-minute crew huddles, delegating at 80 percent, and 2022 corn costs pushing $1,000 an acre.
Apr 2022
Literally an ABC soup of issues driving markets: weekly market outlook Apr. 11-15
Grant Shimek explains reversion to the mean, why margin targets beat price targets, and how to judge your marketing by the average sale, not the worst one.
Mar 2022
Weekly market outlook: Mar. 28 - Apr. 1st - rollercoaster ride without rails
Jarod Creed explains why risk means change, not just lower prices, and how margin protection can hedge a crop year no one could have forecast.
Mar 2022
Weekly market outlook Mar. 21-25th: navigating the unknown
Ryan Moe explains how a steep futures inverse punishes stored grain, why wheat supply shocks fade fast, and how to judge cash price against history.
Mar 2022
Hyper inflation equals hyper volatility
Joe Vaclavik defends early risk management sales, explains why volatility cuts both ways, and asks what happens if input costs climb another 20 percent.
Mar 2022
Weekly market outlook: Mar. 7th-11th - Russia Ukraine conflict heats up the market
Duane Lowry explains how to roll put options up a rally, cap forward sales at your insurance coverage, and read basis when futures go vertical.
Feb 2022
10 minutes on 2022 crop insurance
Steve Johnson on 2022 crop insurance: $5.90 corn, $14.34 beans, saving $12 an acre by dropping to 80 percent RP, and adding SCO or ECO on top.
Feb 2022
8 farm equipment management strategies for the future
Shay Foulk and Chris Barron walk through annual fleet appraisals, 3-to-5-year replacement plans, cost per bushel rates and when a lease actually pays.
Feb 2022
Weekly market outlook: Feb. 21-25th - caution, uncertainty and volatility ahead
Duane Lowry compares February price spikes back to 2008 and shows why carryout, not the headline price, decides whether forward sales look smart.
Feb 2022
Weekly market outlook, Feb. 7th-11th: input cost update
Chris Barron breaks down aggregated 2022 cost of production data line by line and explains why paying yourself belongs inside the breakeven calculation.
Feb 2022
The February farmer: 3 things to do and know
Shay Foulk on nailing cost per bushel by February, stress testing it against lower prices, and judging crop insurance as a percent of production cost.
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