Markets Episodes
Every Ag View Pitch conversation on markets — summaries, key takeaways, and full transcripts.
Oct 2020
Sunday market outlook: are you rewarding the market rally?
Jarod Creed tells producers to judge the year on revenue per acre, question every bushel that goes in the bin, and set a worst-case price in advance.
Oct 2020
Mid-week market outlook, Oct. 8, 2020
Garret Brown explains how light carry signals tight supply, and how converting record fund length into bushels reveals the selling risk ahead of you.
Oct 2020
Are the harvest highs in? Sunday market outlook
Duane Lowry explains how to judge a harvest rally against your own spring, why positioning shapes report reactions, and when to close the books early.
Oct 2020
Check off dollars: what are they used for? IL Soy
Linda Kull and Emily Carls break down how the 0.5% soybean checkoff is collected and spent, and how the AMP program helps Illinois farms plan a transition.
Oct 2020
Quarterly grain stock reports: uncertainty, surprise, and volatility
Garret Brown breaks down the September 2020 stocks report: corn under 2 billion bushels, 255 million below estimates, and what it means for 2021 margins.
Sep 2020
Sunday market outlook: does a new week bring more price opportunity?
Duane Lowry asks producers to measure today's price against what they feared all summer, then decide whether storing beans is a plan or a habit.
Sep 2020
Mid-week market outlook 09-24-2020
Garret Brown argues government payments belong in your breakeven, not in your patience, and traces how South American delays extend US export demand.
Sep 2020
Sunday market outlook: pricing opportunities continue, but for how long?
Duane Lowry benchmarks price against years of history, argues seller's remorse costs more than selling early, and asks if demand news is already priced.
Sep 2020
Duane's take may surprise you: Friday's report and producer marketing plan
After the September USDA report, Duane Lowry wants clients 100% sold on 2020 beans and corn, aggressive on 2021 corn, and holding 2021 soybeans.
Sep 2020
Macro and micro economic market movers
Texas A&M economist Mark Welch explains how recessions, inflation, and the dollar move grain prices, and a 5% rule that drops corn breakeven 40 cents.
Sep 2020
Sunday market outlook: USDA report coming up Friday
Duane reads fund positioning against price response to judge whether a rally has stalled, and explains when carry and basis argue for selling now.
Sep 2020
September 11th USDA pre-report discussion
Steve Johnson explains USDA's three survey methods and why implied ear weight could make the September 11 corn number look too big after the derecho.
Aug 2020
Do declining yield prospects equal more price strength?
Duane argues producers should separate their own yield and profit math from the national yield debate, and treat crop insurance as the first risk decision.
Aug 2020
Bullish market drivers ahead?
Duane Lowry says the harvest low is in: cut 5 to 6 bushels off USDA's 181.8 corn yield, add China demand, and carryout drops near 2.2 billion.
Aug 2020
The devastation of the derecho continues
An Iowa farmer lost his whole grain site to 114 mph winds. Grain bagging, a 30 percent corn yield loss estimate, and what basis does when bins vanish.
Aug 2020
Episode 200: Sunday night market outlook
Duane Lowry on why derecho losses may not move the corn balance sheet but can still move price, and how to set a sale off your own margin target.
Aug 2020
Aftermath of the Iowa derecho firsthand from a farmer
All 2,500 acres of Brandt Fehl's corn took damage from 100 mph winds. He and Chris Barron talk storage, drying 30% corn, and where basis goes next.
Aug 2020
USDA's report to set new baselines
Duane Lowry argues China will keep buying US corn, spot prices sit near 11-year lows, and basis should firm into harvest instead of collapsing.
Aug 2020
Sunday market outlook: supply and demand tug of war
Duane Lowry reads a market that absorbs bad news without breaking, and explains why a farmer with little sold may hold more leverage than he thinks.
Jul 2020
Where do the corn and soybean markets go from here?
Grant Shimek reads the 60-year cycle for the 2020 crop: December corn capped in the mid-$3.40s, soybean resistance near $9.17 to $9.27, low in November.
Jul 2020
Sunday night market outlook 07-19-2020
Joe Vaclavik turns fund positioning into a marketing filter, and warns farmers who set basis early to price the futures long before delivery.
Jul 2020
Weather improves, market declines
Steve Johnson expects a 15 billion bushel corn crop, weaker harvest basis and over $100 an acre of 2020 government payments. Price overflow bushels now.
Jul 2020
Sunday night market outlook 07-12-2020
Duane Lowry argues a sale only removes risk when it clears your crop insurance price floor, and explains why the double dip is a dangerous bet.
Jul 2020
Monday market outlook, July 6, 2020
Duane Lowry ranks which bushels to price first, when options earn their cost, and how to use chart levels to test whether a sale thesis still holds.
Jul 2020
Pre-holiday grain marketing opportunities?
Duane Lowry and Chris Barron weigh selling into a fast rally, using carry in the futures spreads, and showing a lender proactive forward sales.
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