Markets Episodes
Every Ag View Pitch conversation on markets — summaries, key takeaways, and full transcripts.
Episode 524
Pre-harvest price prospects: weekly market outlook Aug. 21-25th
Duane Lowry explains why a pre-harvest rally is a peak to sell from, and how high interest rates change whether storing bushels can pay at all.
Episode 520
The dog days of August: weekly market outlook Aug. 7-11th
Joe Vaclavik explains why the dollar price per bushel is nearly irrelevant, how to treat crop insurance as a put, and why headlines defy prediction.
Episode 516
Weekly market outlook July 17-21st: weather and volatility
Peter Meyer explains why supply rallies get sold and demand rallies get respected, and how to hold price targets when algorithms drive the tape.
Episode 514
Weekly market outlook, July 10-14th: $5 corn is the top with more than 10% stocks to use
Clark Neighbors shows how stocks to use above ten percent has capped harvest corn near five dollars, and why crop insurance stalls farmer selling.
Episode 513
Weekly market outlook - July 3-7th: USDA sticker shock
Grant Shimek separates the basis decision from the futures decision, and explains why a report shock trades for three days before weather takes over.
Episode 512
Weekly market outlook June 26-30th: weather and civil war in Russia
Joe Vaclavik argues yield uncertainty outranks demand in a drought market, and explains why locking a strong return is business, not a bad call.
Episode 510
Weekly market outlook: June 20th-23rd - extreme localization
Ryan Moe splits board risk from basis risk, warns that your local buyer may already be full, and explains when accumulators actually make sense.
Episode 508
Weather vs sluggish demand
Jarod Creed splits farmers into two camps by insurance coverage and shows why the right marketing move depends on which side of that line you sit on.
Episode 506
Sharpen your pencils: Sunday market outlook June 5-9
Garret Brown on why knowing your breakeven lets you execute, and why a two-year margin outlook should drive fertilizer and grain sale decisions.
Episode 504
Weekly market outlook May 30 - June 2nd: bullish weather markets?
Brian Splitt maps 2023 against 2013 to show how analog years guide sale targets, then explains scaling bushels up as price climbs and using puts.
Episode 503
Weekly market outlook May 22-26th: are the lows in?
Grant Shimek explains how to read an inverted seasonal, where value zones sit, and why panic among the worst marketers is a signal to get optimistic.
Episode 502
Weekly market outlook May 15-19th: USDA report and market fundamentals
Mark Welch reads a WASDE the way a marketer should: question the trendline yield, doubt the demand rebound, and keep your own breakeven current.
Episode 501
Weekly market outlook: May 8-12th - planting season continues
Jarod Creed explains how the insurance guarantee sets your real downside, and why a recession bet in the futures market is not a fundamental signal.
Episode 499
Weekly market outlook, May 1-5th: markets under pressure
Matt Bennett on why aggressive sales still need flexibility, how crop insurance sets your floor, and why final yield changes your true breakeven.
Episode 497
Slow planting pace
Duane Lowry reads spreads and relative value to argue a sell-off was a flush, not a trend, and explains where to park new crop offers ahead of planting.
Episode 495
Weekly market outlook: April 17-21, planting progress and market movers
Peter Meyer explains how China buys value, why funds wait for momentum, and what to ask when energy companies come recruiting your acres for feedstock.
Episode 493
Weekly market outlook, April 10-14th: macro price pressure
Ryan Moe of StoneX explains why standing open orders beat watching the screen, and why funds skip corn when a risk free CD pays five percent.
Episode 490
Weekly market outlook April 3-7: April fools or April facts? The latest USDA numbers
Joe Vaclavik explains why the acreage number deserves doubt, how spring seasonals usually behave and what high interest rates cost you to store grain.
Episode 486
Funds go risk off: weekly market outlook March 20-24th
Clark Neighbors reads a corn break through fund liquidation, defines patience as 60 to 90 days, and prices storage as interest per acre per month.
Episode 485
March madness: weekly market outlook March 13-17th
Jarod Creed argues margin objectives beat price targets, explains why a blended average matters more than your last sale, and plans before planting.
Episode 481
Don't raise 230 bu corn to break even
Matt Bennett on the corn market dropping 27 cents in a week, $5.94 and $13.75 insurance prices, and why 240 bushel corn can still lose money in 2023.
Episode 480
Ten topics for the weekly market outlook, Feb. 21-24th
Duane Lowry ranks ten market forces against the balance sheet and argues that record fixed input costs should skew every decision toward protecting margin.
Feb 2023
Valentine's Day and soybean sales: Sunday market outlook
Jarod Creed tells Shay Foulk why farmers should market for revenue rather than price, and why holding unsold bushels is a bet you chose to place.
Feb 2023
Macro matters that move markets - weekly market outlook: Feb. 6-10th
Grant Shimek weighs cycle lows, basis flow and sovereign debt, and argues farmers should hold both tails rather than commit emotionally to one direction.
Jan 2023
A powerhouse conversation at the Ag View Executive Business Conference
Joe Vaclavik, Ryan Moe and Jarod Creed break down corn versus soybean acre economics, the swing acres that actually move, and sticky cost structures.
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