Cost of Production Episodes
Every Ag View Pitch conversation on cost of production — summaries, key takeaways, and full transcripts.
Jan 2022
Weekly market outlook: Jan 31 - Feb 4, a must-listen roundtable discussion
Duane Lowry moderates Jarod Creed, Ryan Moe and Joe Vaclavik on fund positioning, basis risk and building a marketing plan from a worst-case profit.
Jan 2022
Weekly market outlook: Jan 24-28th, high inputs + high prices = high risk
Texas A&M economist Mark Welch on stocks-to-use as a price signal, when storing grain is really a directional bet, and managing risk at high inputs.
Jan 2022
Weekly market outlook: Jan. 17-21st - inflation, weather, volatility
Duane Lowry warns that cost inflation carries no promise of revenue inflation, and argues protecting revenue outranks protecting the upside this year.
Jan 2022
Inflation, USDA report, and volatility
Grant Shimek ties fertilizer and fuel costs back to underinvestment in energy, and explains why input decisions have a deadline that price does not.
Jan 2022
Got fertilizer? What you need to know
Bryan Bednarek of StoneX explains why urea and phosphate hit 10-year highs, where US prices sit versus the Arab Gulf, and when to buy sidedress N.
Dec 2021
Marketing resolutions in the new year: improving your marketing plan
Garret Brown shows how to set measurable marketing goals, cut daily wire noise, build a per acre breakeven, and pick triggers that fit how you sell.
Dec 2021
Weekly market outlook: Dec. 27-31st - putting a bow on 2021 markets
Peter Meyer and Jarod Creed separate supply rallies from demand rallies and push producers to stress test interest rates before spending a good year.
Dec 2021
Weekly market outlook Dec. 20-24th: what will 2022 bring?
Duane Lowry explains why record input costs raise the price of every marketing mistake, and why inflation alone will not hold commodity prices up.
Dec 2021
Equipment economics for 2022
Brent Judisch on three price increases in 12 months, used tractors up 20 percent, combines sold out until 2023, and when leasing beats buying a machine.
Dec 2021
Macro markets drive volatility
Chris Wilson explains how money flow creates violent moves in well-supported markets, and why locking input costs demands a matching revenue floor.
Dec 2021
Economic hurdles: inflation, interest rates, supply chain issues
Economist Bill Conerly expects 6 percent inflation, rates 3 points higher by 2023, and tells farms with extra cash to be patient before buying land.
Nov 2021
7 step strategic outlook plan for 2022
Chris Barron and Shay Foulk list seven planning steps for 2022: debt structure, capital priorities, market value balance sheets and margin goals.
Nov 2021
Weekly market outlook: Nov. 29 - Dec. 3rd - new month, new opportunities?
Jarod Creed reads an inverted cash corn market, questions cheap fertilizer assumptions, and frames a crop budget as a return on dollars invested per acre.
Nov 2021
4 things to know: November 2021
Duane Lowry on Brazil's fast planting, why China waits for cheaper South American beans, and why expense inflation will not lift grain prices.
Nov 2021
Weekly market outlook, Nov. 15-19: multiple moving parts in the market
Peter Meyer argues fertilizer you locked in is not fertilizer you have, and explains why a season average value beats chasing the day's high.
Nov 2021
Weekly market outlook: Nov. 8-12th - USDA report discussion
Ryan Moe treats a USDA report as a basis event, explains why finite processor demand caps harvest basis, and argues record margins are meant to be taken.
Oct 2021
Weekly market outlook: Nov. 1-5th - market fundamentals to watch
Joe Vaclavik on why unsold bushels need a floor, how fertilizer uncertainty drives the 2022 acreage fight, and what a Fed rate hike would do to grain.
Oct 2021
Weekly market outlook: Oct. 25-29th - manage your opportunities
Mark Welch explains when grain bins actually pay, why demand growth is thinner than it looks, and how to match input buys with priced bushels.
Oct 2021
Weekly market outlook Oct. 18-22nd: time to reset price opportunity?
Duane Lowry argues the sales decision starts with what your bushels dollar up to for your operation, not with a price forecast or an inflation story.
Oct 2021
An economic outlook and how our businesses might be impacted
Economist Bill Conerly tells Chris Barron why energy inflation lingers, why short-term rates could jump 3 points in a year, and to lock in long debt.
Oct 2021
Processor perspective
Brenda Kochanny and Matt Coley explain how to weigh basis against carry, why supply chain risk matters, and how to stress test a plan before deciding.
Oct 2021
Weekly market outlook, Oct. 4-8th: harvest marches forward while 2022 inputs continue to climb higher
Jarod Creed argues the production debate is over, reframes the farm as a listed stock, and shows how to offset every input purchase with matching sales.
Sep 2021
Key nuts and bolts for margin protection
Duane Lowry breaks down margin protection: a county-based 95% policy at a $5.06 corn price, why it beats an 80% RP policy, and the Sept. 30 deadline.
Sep 2021
Weekly market outlook: Sep. 20-24, risk vs reward
Paul Neiffer and Duane Lowry ask where the risk hides in a strong market, and why record input costs put more dollars on the table than ever before.
Sep 2021
Margin protection: pay attention, act now
Steve Johnson explains margin protection for 2022 corn and soybeans: the September 30 deadline, coverage levels, and how premiums really work.
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