Cost of Production Episodes
Every Ag View Pitch conversation on cost of production — summaries, key takeaways, and full transcripts.
Episode 480
Ten topics for the weekly market outlook, Feb. 21-24th
Duane Lowry ranks ten market forces against the balance sheet and argues that record fixed input costs should skew every decision toward protecting margin.
Feb 2023
Valentine's Day and soybean sales: Sunday market outlook
Jarod Creed tells Shay Foulk why farmers should market for revenue rather than price, and why holding unsold bushels is a bet you chose to place.
Feb 2023
Macro matters that move markets - weekly market outlook: Feb. 6-10th
Grant Shimek weighs cycle lows, basis flow and sovereign debt, and argues farmers should hold both tails rather than commit emotionally to one direction.
Jan 2023
A powerhouse conversation at the Ag View Executive Business Conference
Joe Vaclavik, Ryan Moe and Jarod Creed break down corn versus soybean acre economics, the swing acres that actually move, and sticky cost structures.
Jan 2023
Margin management marketing: weekly market outlook, Jan. 23-27
Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net explains why he markets off breakevens instead of forecasts, and how floors on half the crop protect a tight 2023 margin.
Jan 2023
Financial navigation for 2023: a lender's perspective
Ag lender Jeremy Doetch lists the six documents he wants at renewal and the three ratios he watches: 1.15 debt service, 1-to-1 current, 30% debt to asset.
Jan 2023
Fundamentals always win out: weekly market outlook January 16-20th
Jarod Creed reads a four-report USDA day, explains why the Argentine drought matters through soybean meal, and builds a plan for spacing new crop sales.
Jan 2023
Super Bowl of USDA reports coming soon! Weekly market outlook Jan. 9-13
Ryan Moe of StoneX argues the risk in a $6.50 corn market is larger than in a $3.50 one, and shows how options and a target price close that gap.
Jan 2023
2023 risks and rewards: weekly market outlook, January 3rd-6th
Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain reviews 2022 and makes the case that grain prices always revert to cost of production, so budgets drive marketing.
Dec 2022
High stakes poker, or just another year of decision-making for US agricultural producers?
Duane Lowry on why December 2022 grain prices sit below harvest and spring highs, what Argentina's drought could do, and why average sale price matters.
Dec 2022
Equipment, inflation, and fleet management considerations
Brent Judisch on why used tractors jumped 20-30 percent, when leasing beats buying, and how to judge a $90,000 combine trade on a per-bushel basis.
Dec 2022
Basis, volatility
Clark Neighbors explains his doughnut model of basis, what wild cash swings mean for negotiating, and the real monthly cost of holding grain in the bin.
Nov 2022
Weekly market outlook: Nov. 28th-Dec. 2nd - time to put a bow on 2022 sales?
Jarod Creed argues for finishing 2022 sales early so attention shifts to 2023, where knowing costs and setting margin targets decide the year.
Nov 2022
Managing opportunities: weekly market outlook, Nov. 14-18th
Mark Welch of Texas A&M on judging a price by whether it works for your operation, the demand lag after a short crop, and cost control as advantage.
Nov 2022
Margin management math - weekly market outlook: Nov. 7-11th
Jarod Creed prices the interest on grain in the bin and shows how insurance coverage plus a third of the crop sold makes a margin nearly bulletproof.
Oct 2022
Weekly market outlook: Oct. 24th-28th - technical and fundamental market movers
Grant Shimek of Black Oak Financial on decade-pattern seasonals, why basis and futures trade off each other, and defining the price that proves you wrong.
Oct 2022
Weekly market outlook Oct. 17th-21st: the heart of a harvest market
Jarod Creed explains why harvest decisions hinge on basis, storage cost and insurance math, and Chris Barron lays out a six-step plan for next year.
Oct 2022
Macro and micro market drivers discussed
Joe Vaclavik starts marketing decisions with financial position and storage, not price forecasts, and warns that high prices start to feel permanent.
Oct 2022
Weekly market outlook Oct. 3-7: harvest markets
Duane Lowry revisits 2013 to explain why the forward sale that looks too cheap next to today's spot bid is often the best sale a grower makes all year.
Sep 2022
Tug of war price movement
Peter Meyer explains the tug of war between bearish macro forces and tight corn supply, and why the answer sits on your own balance sheet, not the news.
Sep 2022
Micro and macro market management - weekly market outlook: September 19-23rd
Clark Neighbors treats basis as a logistics problem, showing how to price an empty pipeline and judge whether stored bushels beat the cost of money.
Sep 2022
Time to manage risk: the clock is ticking for margin protection
Steve Johnson and Jarod Creed explain margin protection for the 2023 crop: the cost trigger, the $6.09 corn price, premiums, and the September 30 deadline.
Sep 2022
Labor Day 2022: pre-harvest outlook
Garret Brown breaks a marketing plan into trigger, method, and volume, then reads basis, the forward curve, and Brazil heading into 2022 harvest.
Aug 2022
Crop tour? What now?
Jarod Creed reports from the 2022 Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Nebraska losses worth 2 to 3 bushels nationally, and why he pairs fertilizer buys with sales.
Aug 2022
2023 risk management update: margin protection explained
Steve Johnson explains margin protection: an area-based add-on with an August to September price discovery and a September 30 sign-up deadline.
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